Napoli vs AS Roma Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Napoli
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
AS Roma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+17% edge)
Recommended Bets: Napoli vs AS Roma
Napoli vs AS Roma: Match Preview
Napoli enter this clash ninth in Serie A, having collected 10 points from six matches, with a mixed run of form (WDWLL) and a recent 3-0 home win over Frosinone offset by a 1-3 Champions League loss at Villarreal. Roma, unbeaten in the league and third in the table, have shown consistency with four wins and two draws, and are coming off a high-scoring 3-4 defeat to Real Madrid in Europe. The standings reflect Roma's stronger start, but Napoli's home record (2-0-1) and underlying metrics keep this contest balanced.
The statistical matchup is defined by Napoli's moderate home attack (1.67 goals/game) and Roma's outstanding away defence (0.00 conceded in three Serie A away matches). Both sides average similar shot volumes (Napoli 12.4, Roma 12.6 per last five), but Roma's clean sheet rate (67%) and Napoli's 50% suggest limited clear-cut chances. Set pieces could prove decisive: Napoli average 5 corners per match, Roma 4.4, while both teams are prone to bookings (Napoli 1.4, Roma 2.6 yellows per game last five), hinting at a physical midfield battle.
The model projects a low-scoring, closely-fought encounter, with the draw (36% probability) narrowly more likely than either side winning outright. Under 2.5 goals (53%) is favoured, given both teams' defensive records and the H2H trend of stalemates. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1, reflecting the equilibrium in attack and defence, and the historical tendency for these sides to cancel each other out.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Napoli vs AS Roma that most previews miss.
- 1Roma have yet to concede an away goal in Serie A this season (3 matches, 6 scored, 0 conceded).
- 2Five of the last ten meetings between these sides have finished level, including two 2-2 draws in Naples.
- 3Napoli's last five home matches average just 2.0 total goals, with three clean sheets between both sides.
Who do you think wins: Napoli vs AS Roma?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Napoli vs AS Roma(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.43
The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw, higher than the 31% implied by odds of 3.25. Both teams have drawn 5 of their last 10 H2H meetings and Napoli's home attack (1.67 goals/game) is closely matched by Roma's away defence (0.00 conceded in Serie A), supporting a low-margin contest.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.91
53% model probability for under 2.5 goals versus 52% implied by odds. Both sides have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 and Roma have yet to concede away in Serie A, suggesting a suppressed goal environment.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction
This fixture features two sides with contrasting season trajectories but statistical parity in key metrics. Napoli's home scoring rate (1.67 per game) is offset by Roma's perfect away defensive record in Serie A (0 goals conceded in three matches). Both teams have shown a tendency for tight contests, with a combined 50% under 2.5 goals rate across their league campaigns. The draw emerges as the likeliest outcome, supported by the historical frequency of stalemates between these sides and the current balance of attack and defence.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Roma's away record in Serie A: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 conceded, 6 scored.
- →Napoli have averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per league match.
Match Context
- →Five of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws.
🚩 Napoli vs AS Roma Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Napoli and 4.7 for AS Roma, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Napoli and AS Roma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
Napoli
AS Roma
Napoli vs AS Roma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Napolilast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AS Romalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Napoli's recent form is mixed, with two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five, including a solid 3-0 home victory but also a 1-3 European defeat. Roma remain unbeaten in Serie A, with four wins and two draws, and have conceded just three league goals all season. Both teams have shown resilience defensively, but Napoli's momentum is less convincing than Roma's sustained consistency.
Napoli vs AS Roma — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Napoli vs AS Roma
The head-to-head record is defined by draws, with five in the last ten meetings and only one win for Roma. Scorelines are typically close, with three 1-1 or 2-2 results and only one match in the last five exceeding two goals. Napoli have a slight edge at home, but the fixture rarely produces a decisive margin.
Napoli vs AS Roma Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Napoli wins
5
Draws
1
AS Roma wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Napoli vs AS Roma
The greatest value is on the draw at odds of 3.25, with the model's 36% probability outstripping the market's 31% implied. Margins are slim elsewhere, but under 2.5 goals and 'BTTS: No' both offer probabilities very close to the odds, suggesting little value beyond the stalemate.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Napoli vs AS Roma
- ⚠️Small sample size for current season away defensive record (Roma).
- ⚠️Recent Champions League matches may impact squad rotation and fatigue, especially with injuries to Buongiorno (Napoli) and Bah (Roma).
- ⚠️Goal output can swing on early finishing given both teams' shot volumes are similar (Napoli 12.4, Roma 12.6 per match last 5).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Napoli 1–1 AS RomaThe model calls a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, driven by Roma's perfect away defensive record and the historical frequency of stalemates in this fixture. The main risk lies in Roma's recent attacking uptick (2.33 goals/game season average) breaking Napoli's resistance, but the underlying rates and H2H data point to a low-margin contest.
Napoli vs AS Roma: Common Questions
Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?
The model gives both Napoli and AS Roma a 36% chance of winning, with the draw slightly higher at 36%. Both teams have similar shot and goal rates, and five of their last ten meetings have ended level.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Roma?
The probability for both teams to score is 52%, reflecting Napoli's 1.67 goals scored per game and Roma's 2.33, but also both sides' strong clean sheet rates (Napoli 50%, Roma 67%). The data points to a marginally higher chance of both scoring.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Napoli vs Roma?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 53% probability, supported by Napoli's and Roma's combined defensive record and a 50% under 2.5 rate in their league matches. The odds (1.91) are close to fair value based on the model.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Napoli vs AS Roma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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