Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Cambuur
Full Time
2 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 3
AZ Alkmaar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 5(+5% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Late AZ Equaliser Denies Ten-Man Cambuur in Leeuwarden Thriller
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at Kooi Stadion, with the hosts twice taking the lead but ultimately being pegged back by a late AZ equaliser. Cambuur struck early and looked to have weathered AZ's possession-heavy approach, but a second-half red card and mounting pressure told in the closing stages. Despite AZ dominating possession with 64% and winning the corner count 6-3, Cambuur's resilience and clinical finishing kept the contest in the balance until the final whistle. The hosts opened the scoring in the 7th minute, only for AZ to respond midway through the first half. Cambuur regained the lead before halftime, but a red card for the home side shifted the momentum decisively in AZ's favour. The visitors capitalised with a late goal in the 83rd minute, ensuring the spoils were shared after an intense encounter.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 3
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
N. Binder opens the scoring for Cambuur, giving the hosts an early lead.
26' — Goal
M. Meerdink equalises for AZ Alkmaar, finishing off a patient move.
39' — Goal
I. Hamache restores Cambuur's lead with a clinical strike.
Second Half' — Red Card
Cambuur reduced to ten men after a straight red, shifting the momentum.
83' — Goal
AZ Alkmaar level the match late, capitalising on their numerical advantage.
Cambuur
Cambuur were spirited and efficient, making the most of limited possession to carve out 11 shots, 6 of which were on target. Their early goal set the tone, and they showed admirable resilience after conceding an equaliser. Even after being reduced to ten men, Cambuur defended stoutly, but the numerical disadvantage eventually told late on. Discipline was an issue, with three yellow cards and a costly red undermining their efforts to hold on for victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar controlled the tempo for long stretches, enjoying 64% possession and dictating play with their midfield trio. They were patient in their build-up, eventually breaking down Cambuur's resistance late on. AZ's persistence paid off with a crucial 83rd-minute equaliser, but their inability to convert dominance into more clear-cut chances (7 shots, 4 on target) will be a concern. Two yellow cards reflected their frustration at times, but they ultimately showed character to rescue a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1, but AZ's superior technical quality in midfield allowed them to dominate possession and dictate the rhythm. Cambuur, by contrast, sat deep and looked to break quickly, making the most of transitions and set pieces. The hosts' disciplined defensive shape frustrated AZ for long periods, but the red card forced Cambuur into an even deeper block, inviting sustained pressure. AZ utilised their full-backs and wingers to stretch the play, and their persistence from wide areas and set pieces eventually paid off. Substitutions after the red card saw Cambuur sacrifice attacking intent for defensive solidity, while AZ threw on fresh legs to chase the equaliser.
Turning Point
The red card for Cambuur in the second half, which handed AZ the initiative and led to the late equaliser.
Man of the Match
C. Stengs
Pulled the strings in midfield for AZ, providing the crucial assist for the late equaliser and consistently creating openings.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: Match Preview
Cambuur enter this contest languishing in 14th, but recent results offer a glimmer of hope: a 3-0 win over NEC and two draws in their last three. However, their home record remains a glaring concern, with three defeats in four and 13 goals conceded at the Kooi Stadion. AZ Alkmaar, sitting third and just a point off the top, arrive off the back of a 2-0 defeat to Feyenoord but have otherwise been clinical on their travels, winning three of four away and boasting the league's third-best defensive record.
The tactical contrast is stark: Cambuur's matches are wide open, averaging 4.25 total goals at home, while AZ's away fixtures are more controlled (2.25 goals per game), underpinned by a disciplined midfield and a back line that has allowed just five away goals. Cambuur have scored in every home match but have also failed to keep a clean sheet in six of seven league outings. AZ's attack, led by Meerdink and Daal, has cooled slightly—just five goals in their last five in all competitions—but their shot volume remains high (15.4 per game).
The model expects AZ's superior structure and Cambuur's defensive frailties to tell, but the market's overwhelming confidence in the away win (1.36) leaves little value. With Cambuur capable of scoring and AZ's attack not firing at full throttle, the draw and unders carry more appeal than the odds imply. Expect AZ to control the tempo, but Cambuur's recent resilience could keep things interesting longer than the market anticipates.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
The market's short price on AZ Alkmaar leaves little value on the away win, but the draw at 5.0 is slightly overpriced given the model's 21% chance. The under 2.5 goals market is also marginally mispriced, with AZ's away games trending lower-scoring than Cambuur's home record suggests. Both teams to score 'no' offers a sliver of value, but none of these are standout edges—this is a fixture where the market is mostly in line with the data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 5.14
The model assigns a 21% probability to the draw (odds imply only 20%), which is a modest but real edge in a fixture where Cambuur have drawn two of their last five and AZ have shown some attacking stutters on the road. The price marginally exceeds the true chance.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 3.1
Although Cambuur's matches are high-scoring, AZ's away games have gone under 2.5 in three of four this season. The model gives 'under' a 34% chance versus 32% implied, so the price is just about playable for small stakes.
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BTTS: No@ 2.31
AZ have kept a clean sheet in 37.5% of league games and Cambuur have failed to score only once in five, but the model sees enough defensive strength in AZ and a low Cambuur home goal output (1.5 per game) to make 'no' a slim value play.
Read more ↓
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar that most previews miss.
- 1AZ Alkmaar's away games have gone under 2.5 goals in three of four this season, despite averaging 15.4 shots per game in their last five.
- 2Cambuur have conceded at least two goals in every home match so far, but have also scored in all of them.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have finished with AZ winning and both teams scoring.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 2.45
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 1-2 · 0-3
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
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The Case For This Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
AZ Alkmaar travel to Leeuwarden as strong favourites, but the market's short price on the away win leaves little margin for error against a Cambuur side that has shown some attacking spark despite their defensive frailty. Cambuur's recent form includes a 3-0 home win and two draws, but their record against top-half opposition is poor, conceding heavily. AZ's away record is robust, with three wins from four and only five goals conceded on the road, but their attack has been more efficient than explosive lately, averaging just 1.0 goals per game over the last five in all competitions. The model sees AZ's superior quality and Cambuur's leaky defence as decisive, but the draw and unders are not as far-fetched as the market suggests.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of the last 10 H2H meetings, with Cambuur yet to win in this span.
Attack
- →AZ's away matches average 2.25 goals per game, with under 2.5 goals landing in 3 of 4 this season.
Defence
- →Cambuur have conceded 13 goals in 4 home games (3.25 per match), the worst home defence in the division.
🚩 Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Cambuur and 5.3 for AZ Alkmaar, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cambuurlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AZ Alkmaarlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cambuur have steadied after a torrid start, picking up a win and two draws in their last five, but their defensive issues persist—conceding 2.4 goals per game over that span. AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, have won four of their last six and remain firmly in the title race, though their attack has slowed, averaging just one goal per game in their last five across all competitions.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 77.78% of games this season
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 59% avg
What History Says: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar have had the upper hand in this fixture, unbeaten in the last ten meetings with six wins and four draws. Cambuur have not beaten AZ in over a decade, and recent encounters in Leeuwarden have also favoured the visitors, who have kept Cambuur to two goals in their last five away trips.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Cambuur wins
4
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar wins
Things to Watch: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
- ⚠️Cambuur's attack has scored in every home match this season, raising the risk on BTTS and unders.
- ⚠️AZ's Europa League involvement could introduce rotation or fatigue, not captured in the static data.
- ⚠️Small sample size for Cambuur's home record may exaggerate defensive weakness.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cambuur 1–3 AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar are deserved favourites, but the single most compelling stat is Cambuur's 3.25 goals conceded per home game—by far the worst in the league. The model forecasts a 3-1 away win, but the biggest risk is Cambuur's ability to score at home and AZ's occasional away-day profligacy, which could keep the draw or a lower-scoring result in play longer than the market expects.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: Common Questions
Who will win Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites, with the model giving them a 70% chance of victory. Cambuur's home defensive record is poor, while AZ have won three of four away. However, the draw is not as unlikely as the odds suggest, with a 21% model probability.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
The model gives a 54% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Cambuur's record of scoring in every home match and AZ's clean sheets in just 37.5% of league games. The market is slightly more confident on BTTS 'yes', so the value marginally leans towards 'no'.
Is there value in betting against AZ Alkmaar at short odds?
At odds of 1.36 for the away win, the market is heavily favouring AZ, but the model sees the draw as a small value play at 5.0 (21% model probability vs 20% implied). AZ's away attack has not been prolific recently, so a tighter match than expected is plausible.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.