Celtic vs ST Mirren Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Celtic
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 0
ST Mirren
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2.85(+13% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Celtic Edge St Mirren in Tight Contest at Celtic Park
Celtic secured a narrow 1-0 victory over St Mirren at Celtic Park in a match defined by disciplined defending and a solitary moment of attacking quality. The hosts took the lead in the 15th minute and managed to hold off a spirited St Mirren side, who threatened mainly from set pieces but struggled to break through in open play. Despite enjoying 56% possession and registering four shots on target, Celtic found St Mirren's back three a stubborn obstacle. St Mirren, meanwhile, created danger from their seven corners but could muster only a single shot on target, ultimately failing to find the equalizer. The match was a tactical battle, with both teams showing defensive organization but lacking cutting edge in the final third.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
Tomáš Čvančara scores for Celtic to give the hosts an early lead.
37' — Yellow Card
St Mirren's Allan Campbell booked for a late challenge.
54' — Yellow Card
St Mirren's Liam Donnelly receives a yellow card for dissent.
70' — Corner
St Mirren win their seventh corner but fail to capitalize.
Celtic
Celtic controlled the tempo for much of the match, enjoying the majority of possession (56%) and showing composure in midfield. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate central areas, with Callum McGregor and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain orchestrating play. The early goal gave them a platform, but they struggled to create clear chances thereafter, finishing with just seven shots in total. Defensively, they were solid, restricting St Mirren to only one shot on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ST Mirren
St Mirren set up in a 3-4-1-2 formation, focusing on defensive solidity and looking to exploit set pieces. They conceded early but responded with resilience, winning seven corners and putting Celtic under pressure from dead-ball situations. However, their attacking trio found little joy against Celtic's back line, managing just five shots and only one on target. Two yellow cards reflected their combative approach, but ultimately, their lack of creativity in open play cost them.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Celtic's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield, with McGregor and Oxlade-Chamberlain dictating play and providing a solid shield in front of the defense. The wide players, Yang Hyun-Jun and Daizen Maeda, offered width but found space limited by St Mirren's compact back three. After taking the lead, Celtic appeared content to manage the game, focusing on possession and defensive shape. St Mirren's 3-4-1-2 setup prioritized defensive numbers and physicality in midfield, looking to exploit set pieces as their primary attacking outlet. Their seven corners were a notable feature, but a lack of incisive play in open situations hindered their ability to seriously threaten Sinisalo's goal. Substitutions and tactical tweaks could not break Celtic's disciplined structure.
Turning Point
Tomáš Čvančara's 15th-minute goal set the tone, giving Celtic a lead they would defend resolutely for the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
Tomáš Čvančara
Scored the only goal and led the line with tireless work rate, making the difference in a tight contest.
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Expected goals · model says 2.15
Expected goals · model says 0.45
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
32%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 3-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Celtic vs ST Mirren Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Celtic vs ST Mirren?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Celtic vs ST Mirren(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.85
Model probability (48%) for over 2.5 goals exceeds the implied probability from odds (35%), with Celtic's attack and St Mirren's weak away defence supporting a chance of 3+ goals.
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Match Result: Celtic Win@ 1.12
Celtic are strong at home (11W/1D/3L), have dominated H2H, and St Mirren have a poor away record (2W/4D/10L, 31 conceded).
BTTS: No@ 1.25
St Mirren average only 0.84 goals per game and Celtic have a 37.5% clean sheet rate, with only 1 clean sheet in last 5 but St Mirren often fail to score away to top sides.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Celtic vs ST Mirren Prediction
Celtic are expected to control this fixture at home, where their record is strong and their attack is consistent. St Mirren have improved slightly in recent games but remain weak away, with defensive frailties likely to be exposed. The head-to-head history is overwhelmingly in Celtic's favour, and the league positions reflect a clear gulf in quality. While St Mirren may be competitive early, Celtic's firepower and home advantage should prove decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →St Mirren's current form slightly improved, but mostly vs weaker sides.
Attack
- →Celtic average 1.81 goals per game; St Mirren just 0.84.
Defence
- →Celtic's home record: 11 wins in 15, only 12 conceded.
- →St Mirren away: 2 wins, 31 conceded in 16 away games.
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →H2H: Celtic 8 wins in last 10 meetings, St Mirren rarely score.
🚩 Celtic vs ST Mirren Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Celtic and 5.2 for ST Mirren, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Celtic and ST Mirren Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Celtic vs ST Mirren Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Celticlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Celtic vs ST Mirren — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Celtic vs ST Mirren
Celtic vs ST Mirren Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Celtic wins
1
Draws
1
ST Mirren wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Celtic vs ST Mirren
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Celtic vs ST Mirren
- ⚠️Celtic have not kept a clean sheet in last 5 matches.
- ⚠️St Mirren have scored in 4 of last 5 (all competitions), but mostly at home.
- ⚠️Some missing advanced stats (e.g. full shots/possession for all recent games).
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are very short on home win; value is limited in 1x2 market.
- ⚠️Cup and league games mixed in recent form.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Celtic vs ST Mirren: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 6 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.