ST Johnstone vs Dundee Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Johnstone
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Dundee
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Dundee Win
@ 4(+52% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10St Johnstone Edge Dundee in Spirited McDiarmid Park Clash
St Johnstone claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Dundee at McDiarmid Park, bookending the contest with goals in the opening and closing stages. The hosts struck early through T. Steven, setting the tone for an energetic first half, but Dundee responded swiftly after the break via B. Fink to level proceedings. The match remained finely poised until D. Schmidt restored St Johnstone's lead in the 72nd minute, ultimately sealing all three points for the Perth side. Despite Dundee shading possession with 44% and registering five corners to St Johnstone’s four, it was the home side’s greater attacking intent—evidenced by 17 shots to Dundee’s 8—that proved decisive. Both teams showed plenty of fight, with four yellow cards shared between them, but St Johnstone’s clinical edge in key moments ensured they emerged victorious.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
5' — Goal
T. Steven gives St Johnstone an early lead after a fast start.
47' — Goal
B. Fink levels for Dundee, capitalizing on a bright spell after halftime.
72' — Goal
D. Schmidt restores St Johnstone’s lead with a well-taken finish.
various' — Yellow Cards
Three Dundee players and one from St Johnstone go into the book as tempers flare.
ST Johnstone
St Johnstone started on the front foot, capitalizing on their early pressure with a fifth-minute opener from T. Steven. The hosts maintained a high tempo throughout, creating a total of 17 shots, though only four found the target. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed for width and attacking numbers, and they responded well to Dundee’s equalizer by regaining control and finding a winner through D. Schmidt. Defensively, they limited Dundee to just three shots on target and showed resilience in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dundee
Dundee showed determination, especially after falling behind early. Their 4-4-2 setup provided defensive stability and allowed them to grow into the match, culminating in B. Fink’s equalizer just after halftime. However, they struggled to create clear chances, managing only eight shots and three on target. Despite edging possession (44%) and winning more corners, their lack of cutting edge in the final third and a costly lapse for St Johnstone’s second goal left them empty-handed.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
St Johnstone’s 3-4-3 formation enabled them to stretch the play and commit numbers forward, particularly in the wide areas where L. Smith and J. Cotterill provided support. Their aggressive approach yielded an early goal and kept Dundee’s full-backs occupied. Dundee’s 4-4-2, meanwhile, offered solidity but left them outnumbered in midfield transitions, forcing wide play and set-piece reliance. Substitutions and tactical tweaks after Dundee’s equalizer saw St Johnstone regain the initiative, pressing higher and eventually breaking through for the winner. Both sides pressed with intensity, but St Johnstone’s extra attacker often tipped the balance.
Turning Point
D. Schmidt’s 72nd-minute goal, which restored St Johnstone’s lead and shifted momentum decisively in their favor.
Man of the Match
D. Schmidt
Scored the crucial winning goal and was a constant threat in attack.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee: Match Preview
St Johnstone approach this fixture eighth in the table, having drawn three of their last five and winning just once in that span. Their home form is patchy, with two wins, three draws and a single defeat at McDiarmid Park, but a negative goal difference and only one clean sheet in eleven league matches highlight defensive frailty. Dundee, in contrast, sit fourth with five wins and a positive goal difference, buoyed by a recent upturn: three wins in their last five and goals in every away outing so far.
The underlying rates point to a game where both sides are likely to find the net. St Johnstone average 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game, while Dundee's attack is sharper at 1.55 goals per match, conceding 1.18. Both teams' last five matches have trended towards goals—Dundee especially, with all five seeing BTTS and an average of 2 scored per game. Corners and cards are also above league average: Dundee average nearly 7 corners and 1.2 yellows per match, St Johnstone 2.6 corners and 1.6 yellows, suggesting set pieces could play a role.
The model expects a statistical contest: Dundee's edge in attack and their record of scoring in every away game this season make them marginal favourites, but St Johnstone's ability to force draws and the high BTTS rate mean a narrow 2-1 away win is the most probable outcome. However, the draw remains a significant risk given the H2H history and both sides' tendency to concede late.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ST Johnstone vs Dundee that most previews miss.
- 1Dundee have scored in all 5 away matches this season, averaging 1.2 goals per away game.
- 2St Johnstone have kept just 1 clean sheet in 11 league games (9.1% clean sheet rate).
- 37 of the last 10 H2H meetings have finished with both teams scoring or a draw.
Who do you think wins: ST Johnstone vs Dundee?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Johnstone vs Dundee(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Dundee Win@ 4.02
Dundee's season scoring rate (1.55 goals/game) and away record (2W, 3L, 6:6 goal difference) compare favourably to St Johnstone's home defensive metrics (1.5 goals conceded/game, just 9% clean sheet rate), and the historical H2H edge (4 wins in last 10) further supports value at these odds.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.66
Both teams have seen BTTS in 3 of St Johnstone’s and all 5 of Dundee’s last 5 games, with Dundee failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those, indicating a high likelihood of both sides scoring.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This ST Johnstone vs Dundee Prediction
Statistical rates point to a moderately high-scoring contest, with Dundee's superior attacking output and St Johnstone's home vulnerability tilting the balance. Both sides regularly concede, and neither keeps clean sheets with any consistency, so the model expects goals at both ends and a narrow away win as the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Dundee have scored in every away match this season and in all of their last 5 games.
Defence
- →Dundee average 1.55 goals scored per game (season), St Johnstone concede 1.5 at home.
- →St Johnstone have just one clean sheet in 11 matches (9.1% clean sheet rate).
🚩 ST Johnstone vs Dundee Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for ST Johnstone and 5.8 for Dundee, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How ST Johnstone and Dundee Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Johnstonelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundeelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St Johnstone have drawn three of their last five matches and have only one win in that stretch, reflecting a side struggling for momentum. Dundee, meanwhile, come in on a stronger run with three wins and a draw from their last five, and have scored in every match during that span.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: ST Johnstone vs Dundee
Dundee have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning four of the last ten and losing just once to St Johnstone. Draws are common between these sides, with five in the last ten, and both teams have found the net in most recent encounters.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
ST Johnstone wins
4
Draws
4
Dundee wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ST Johnstone vs Dundee
The model finds significant value in the away win at 4.0 odds, with a 38% model probability versus a 25% implied probability (+52% edge). The BTTS market also offers a small edge for 'yes' at 1.70, given the high recent BTTS rates for both teams.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ST Johnstone vs Dundee
- ⚠️Both teams have a high draw rate in recent H2H (5 draws in last 10), raising variance for the 1x2 market.
- ⚠️St Johnstone's home attack is inconsistent (10 goals in 6 home games, but only 1 in 2 of last 5).
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups unavailable at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ST Johnstone 1–2 DundeeThe model projects a 2-1 win for Dundee, driven by their superior scoring rate (1.55 goals/game) and St Johnstone's defensive record (1.5 conceded/game at home, 9% clean sheet rate). The main risk is the draw, with five of the last ten H2H meetings ending level and both teams showing a recent propensity to concede late equalisers.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee: Common Questions
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Dundee?
Dundee are slight statistical favourites with a 38% win probability, compared to 32% for St Johnstone and 30% for the draw. The edge comes from Dundee's higher season scoring rate and superior away record.
Will both teams score in ST Johnstone vs Dundee?
The data supports both teams to score: BTTS has landed in 3 of St Johnstone’s and all 5 of Dundee’s last 5 games, and the model gives a 61% probability for both sides to score in this match.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in ST Johnstone vs Dundee?
There is a 58% model probability for over 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' high season over 2.5 rates (St Johnstone 45%, Dundee 64%) and their recent attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Johnstone vs Dundee: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.