Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Dundee
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Heart Of Midlothian
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.25(+19% edge)
Recommended Bets: Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian
Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian: Match Preview
Dundee enter this fixture in fifth place, three points behind Hearts, with a mixed recent run (LWLDW) but a strong home record (3-2-1, 11:7 goals). Hearts arrive off three straight defeats in all competitions, including a heavy 2-5 home loss to Falkirk, but their overall season numbers remain robust, especially in attack (26 goals in 12 league games).
The statistical matchup points to an open contest. Dundee average 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game, while Hearts' away defence has shipped 13 in 6 matches (2.17 per game). Both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in at least two-thirds of their league fixtures (Dundee 66.7%, Hearts 83.3%), and both have scored in every one of their last five matches. Discipline could play a role, with both averaging over 1.5 yellow cards per game recently and Dundee drawing 6 corners per match at home.
The model expects Hearts' superior attacking rate (2.17 per game) and dominant head-to-head record (8 wins in last 10) to tilt the balance, but Dundee's consistent scoring and home advantage keep the draw in play. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, with the distribution slightly favouring over 2.5 goals but also highlighting value in BTTS 'no' given the market prices.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 2.10
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian that most previews miss.
- 1Hearts' away games average 3.67 total goals, but they've failed to keep a clean sheet in 5 of 6 on the road.
- 2Dundee have scored in every home match this season but have kept just one clean sheet at Dens Park.
- 3Only one of the last ten head-to-heads finished level, with Hearts winning eight times and five clean sheets in that span.
Who do you think wins: Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.32
Despite both teams scoring in 9 of their last 10 combined league games, Hearts' away matches have seen the opposition fail to score in 2 of 6, and Dundee have a season home clean sheet rate of 16.7%. The model's 36% probability for 'no' BTTS at odds of 2.25 represents a 19% edge.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.5
Both sides have high season over 2.5 rates (Dundee 66.7%, Hearts 83.3%), but the underlying scoring rates (Dundee 1.5, Hearts 2.17 per game) and recent attacking regression for Hearts suggest the market overstates the chance of a shootout; 32% model probability for under 2.5 at 2.5 odds is a modest value.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a moderate-to-high goal environment, with both sides averaging above 1.5 goals scored per game and conceding at a similar clip. Hearts' away record is less convincing than their overall numbers, while Dundee's home attack is consistent but not explosive. The most likely outcome is a narrow away win, but the draw is a live possibility given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and recent form.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Dundee have scored in every one of their last five matches and have a home record of 3-2-1 (11:7 goals).
- →Hearts have won 8 of the last 10 head-to-heads, including the last three meetings at Dens Park.
Defence
- →Hearts average 2.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game this season, with an 83% over 2.5 rate.
🚩 Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Dundee and 5 for Heart Of Midlothian, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Dundee and Heart Of Midlothian Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dundeelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Heart Of Midlothianlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundee have taken 7 points from their last five matches, scoring at least once in each and netting 9 goals in that span. Hearts, despite a strong season overall, are on a three-match losing streak in all competitions, conceding 10 goals across those defeats, but have still managed to score in every recent outing.
Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian have won 8 of the last 10 meetings with Dundee, including the last three at Dens Park. Only one of the last ten has ended in a draw, and Hearts have kept five clean sheets in that run, underlining their historical edge in this fixture.
Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Dundee wins
0
Draws
8
Heart Of Midlothian wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian
The strongest value edge is on 'BTTS no' at 2.25, with the model's 36% probability outpacing the market's implied 44%. Under 2.5 goals also offers a modest edge (8%), as the market may be overestimating the chance of a high-scoring game given recent defensive volatility. The draw at 4.1 is slightly overpriced relative to the model's 25% probability.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian
- ⚠️Both teams have high over 2.5 rates, but recent Hearts matches show defensive volatility (conceded 5 to Falkirk, 3 to Thun).
- ⚠️No key injuries reported, but lineups are unavailable at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Sample size for recent form is small; last five matches may not fully reflect longer-term trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dundee 1–2 Heart Of MidlothianThe model projects a 2-1 win for Heart Of Midlothian, anchored by their season-long scoring rate of 2.17 goals per game and a dominant recent head-to-head record. The main risk to this forecast is Hearts' recent defensive collapse—conceding five at home to Falkirk—opening the door for a high-scoring draw or a Dundee upset if the visitors' away frailties persist.
Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian: Common Questions
Who will win Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian?
The model gives Hearts a 53% chance of victory, with Dundee at 22% and the draw at 25%. Hearts' 8 wins in the last 10 meetings and a season scoring rate of 2.17 goals per game make them favourites, but Dundee's home form keeps the draw in play.
Will both teams score in Dundee vs Hearts?
Both teams to score is rated at 64% probability by the model, reflecting that both sides have scored in all of their last five league matches and neither keeps clean sheets regularly at home or away.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Dundee vs Hearts?
Over 2.5 goals is given a 68% chance, supported by Dundee's 66.7% and Hearts' 83.3% season over 2.5 rates, and both teams' attacking output in recent matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dundee vs Heart Of Midlothian: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.