Celtic vs ST Mirren Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Celtic
AI Predicted Score
3 - 0
ST Mirren
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.95(+33% edge)
Recommended Bets: Celtic vs ST Mirren
Celtic vs ST Mirren: Match Preview
Celtic arrive at the summit of the Premiership, having won ten of their first thirteen matches and boasting a formidable home record (five wins, one draw, one defeat, 16 scored, 5 conceded). Their recent form string of 'WWLDW' includes a pair of home wins and a narrow Europa League victory, suggesting a side that is grinding out results even when not at their most fluent. St Mirren, by contrast, sit eighth with just two away wins all season and a 'LLDWL' form line, their attack stalling at 0.67 goals per away game and a -6 away goal difference.
Tactically, this is a lopsided matchup. Celtic's last five home matches have seen them average 19.6 shots and 6.4 on target per game, while St Mirren's away defence has conceded 10 goals in six outings. St Mirren's own attacking output on the road is anaemic, averaging just 4 shots on target and 0.67 goals per match, and they've failed to score in two of their last three away fixtures. Set-piece data also tilts Celtic's way, with the hosts averaging over nine corners per game in their last five, compared to St Mirren's four.
The market is heavily skewed towards Celtic, but the model finds more edge in backing a home clean sheet and a low-probability under 2.5 goals. St Mirren's lack of cutting edge away from home, combined with Celtic's recent defensive tightening, points to a controlled home win with limited threat from the visitors. The likeliest scenario is Celtic scoring early and dictating play, with St Mirren struggling to create clear chances.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Celtic vs ST Mirren
The market is correct to make Celtic overwhelming favourites, but the real value lies in the BTTS 'no' market, where the model's 68% probability is well above the 51% implied by odds of 1.95. There's also a modest edge on under 2.5 goals at 3.75, given St Mirren's anaemic away attack and Celtic's recent defensive tightening. No value is found in the main 1x2 market, where prices are in line with the model's assessment.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Celtic vs ST Mirren(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.92
Celtic have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four home league matches, while St Mirren have failed to score in two of their last three away games and average just 0.67 goals per away match this season. The model gives a 68% chance of BTTS 'no', well above the 51% implied by the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 3.75
While Celtic are heavy favourites, four of their last seven home league games have gone under 2.5 goals, and St Mirren have scored just four goals in six away matches. The model assigns a 32% probability to under 2.5 goals, higher than the 27% implied by the odds.
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Celtic vs ST Mirren Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Celtic vs ST Mirren that most previews miss.
- 1Celtic have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four home league matches, conceding just once in that span.
- 2St Mirren have failed to score in four of their last six away games against Celtic in all competitions.
- 3The last five Celtic home matches have averaged 11.2 corners, with Celtic themselves winning at least eight in four of those games.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.80
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 3-0 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Celtic vs ST Mirren Prediction
Celtic come into this fixture top of the Premiership with a robust home record and a recent uptick in defensive solidity, while St Mirren's away attack has been among the league's least effective. The market prices Celtic as overwhelming favourites, but the data suggests the real value lies in goal and BTTS markets, where St Mirren's bluntness and Celtic's control at home are underappreciated. Expect a match dictated by Celtic's possession and shot volume, with St Mirren likely to struggle for meaningful chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Match Context
- →Celtic average 2.29 goals per home game and allow just 0.71 at Celtic Park.
- →St Mirren have scored only four goals in six away matches, failing to net in two of their last three on the road.
- →The last 10 head-to-heads at Celtic Park have produced eight home wins and just one away victory.
🚩 Celtic vs ST Mirren Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Celtic and 4.8 for ST Mirren, for an expected total of 11.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 61%.
How Celtic and ST Mirren Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Celtic vs ST Mirren Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Celticlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Celtic have won three of their last five, including a hard-fought 1-0 over Kilmarnock and a 3-2 Europa League win, showing resilience even when not at their attacking best. St Mirren, by contrast, have lost four of their last five and have scored just three goals in that span, highlighting their current lack of momentum and attacking threat.
Celtic vs ST Mirren — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +High-volume attack — 20 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 59% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Celtic vs ST Mirren
Celtic have dominated this fixture, winning eight of the last ten meetings and keeping clean sheets in three of the last four at home. St Mirren's only recent success came in a cup tie, and they've struggled to make an impact at Celtic Park, with several 1-0 and 3-0 defeats.
Celtic vs ST Mirren Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Celtic wins
1
Draws
1
ST Mirren wins
Things to Watch: Celtic vs ST Mirren
- ⚠️Celtic have shown occasional defensive lapses, conceding in three of their last five league matches.
- ⚠️St Mirren's attack is inconsistent but did score twice at Celtic Park in the FA Cup last season.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of writing.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Celtic 3–0 ST MirrenCeltic are forecast to win this match 3-0, with the strongest data point being St Mirren's anaemic away attack—just four goals in six away league games and a 23% clean sheet rate. The main risk to this outlook is Celtic's occasional defensive lapse, as seen in their 2-2 home draw with Dundee United, but St Mirren's lack of firepower should limit their threat.
Celtic vs ST Mirren: Common Questions
Who will win Celtic vs ST Mirren?
Celtic are strong favourites with an 81% probability of victory, based on their dominant home record and St Mirren's struggles on the road. The model gives St Mirren just a 6% chance of an upset.
Will both teams score in Celtic vs ST Mirren?
The model gives a 68% chance that both teams will NOT score, with St Mirren failing to net in two of their last three away matches and Celtic keeping three home clean sheets in their last four.
Is there value in backing under 2.5 goals?
Yes, the model rates under 2.5 goals at 32% (odds 3.75), slightly higher than the market's implied probability, reflecting Celtic's recent tendency to control games and St Mirren's blunt attack.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Celtic vs ST Mirren: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.