Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Kilmarnock
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Aberdeen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Aberdeen Win
@ 2.05(+3% edge)
Recommended Bets: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: Match Preview
Kilmarnock and Aberdeen meet at Rugby Park with both sides desperate to arrest alarming slides. Kilmarnock sit bottom, winless in four and having shipped 29 goals in 13 games, while Aberdeen arrive just two points better off but on a four-match losing streak themselves. The hosts’ lone recent victory came against Motherwell, and their form string of LDLLW reflects a side struggling to find consistency or defensive solidity.
Statistically, this is a clash of two vulnerable backlines. Kilmarnock’s last five have seen them concede 11 times, and they’ve managed just one clean sheet all season (15% rate). Aberdeen have not fared much better defensively, conceding 10 in their last five, but their away attack (seven goals in five away games) has shown more promise than Kilmarnock’s home output. Both sides average over 13 shots per game recently, and neither has kept a clean sheet in the last five, suggesting chances at both ends. Set-pieces could be decisive: Kilmarnock average six corners per game in this stretch, while Aberdeen are not far behind at 4.6.
The model expects a tense, mistake-prone contest, with Aberdeen’s slightly sharper away attack and historical edge (six wins in the last ten H2H) making them marginal favourites. With both sides’ confidence fragile and defensive lapses frequent, goals are likely, but it’s Aberdeen’s ability to capitalise on Kilmarnock’s frailties that tips the prediction.
How Kilmarnock and Aberdeen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Aberdeenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Kilmarnock have managed just one win in their last nine league outings and have conceded 11 goals in their last five, highlighting a defence in crisis. Aberdeen, meanwhile, are on a four-match losing run but have shown more attacking threat away from home, scoring in four of their last five on the road. Both teams are searching for a spark, but neither brings momentum into this clash.
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen that most previews miss.
- 1Kilmarnock have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding multiple goals in four of those.
- 2Aberdeen have scored in four of their last five away games, despite losing four straight overall.
- 3Six of the last ten head-to-heads have been won by Aberdeen, with only two wins for Kilmarnock in that span.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
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The Case For This Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Prediction
Kilmarnock limp into this bottom-of-the-table clash with just one win in their last nine league matches and a defence leaking 2.2 goals per game over their last five. Aberdeen’s own form is dire, with four straight defeats in all competitions, but their underlying numbers suggest they’ve been less hapless than results imply, especially away from Pittodrie. The hosts have shown some attacking intent at Rugby Park, averaging 13.8 shots and 6 corners per game over their last five, but their defensive structure has been repeatedly exposed—conceding multiple goals in four of those outings. Aberdeen’s attack has been blunt at home, but on the road they’ve scored seven in five and created chances, while their defence—though far from watertight—hasn’t been as porous as Kilmarnock’s. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and neither side has a reliable record of shutting up shop after taking the lead. Set-piece threat is likely to play a role, with both sides averaging over 4.5 corners per game recently. Momentum is against both, but Aberdeen’s away attack and their historical dominance in this fixture (six wins in the last ten) tip the balance. The model expects a nervy, error-strewn match, with Aberdeen’s slightly greater cutting edge and Kilmarnock’s defensive woes likely to decide it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Kilmarnock have conceded 2.2 goals per game over their last five and have the league’s worst defensive record.
Match Context
- →Aberdeen have lost four straight but scored in four of their last five away matches.
- →Head-to-head favours Aberdeen, who have won six of the last ten meetings.
Where the Model Sees Value: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Aberdeen Win@ 2.09
Aberdeen have lost four straight, but Kilmarnock’s only win in their last five was against a struggling Motherwell side, and the hosts have conceded 15 goals in six home matches (2.5 per game). Aberdeen’s away attack (7 goals in 5 away) is more effective than Kilmarnock’s home attack, and Aberdeen have historically dominated this fixture with six wins in the last ten meetings.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.62
Both sides have defensive issues: Kilmarnock’s last five have averaged 3.4 goals per game, and 62% of their matches this season have gone over 2.5. Aberdeen’s last five have seen 10 goals conceded, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in this period.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
🚩 Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Kilmarnock and 5.4 for Aberdeen, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 59%.
What History Says: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
Recent head-to-heads have favoured Aberdeen, who have claimed six wins in the last ten meetings with Kilmarnock. The last two encounters ended in draws (1-1 and 0-0), but Kilmarnock have only managed two wins in that span, and Aberdeen have often edged tight, low-scoring affairs.
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Kilmarnock wins
2
Draws
6
Aberdeen wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
The model rates Aberdeen’s win probability slightly higher than the market, offering a small value edge at 2.05 odds. There is also a marginal edge on under 2.5 goals, but with both defences struggling, the over is more likely despite shorter odds. Most value lies in siding with Aberdeen against a Kilmarnock side conceding at a league-worst rate.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
- ⚠️Both teams are in poor form and confidence is low, raising volatility.
- ⚠️Aberdeen’s four-game losing streak could signal deeper issues not captured by shot or xG data.
- ⚠️Neither side has major injury absences, but both have rotated lineups recently, adding selection uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Kilmarnock 1–2 AberdeenAberdeen are tipped to edge this 2-1, with Kilmarnock’s defensive frailty—29 goals conceded in 13 league matches—the single strongest data point. The biggest risk to this call is Aberdeen’s own four-game losing streak, which could signal deeper issues or a crisis of confidence that might allow Kilmarnock to capitalise, especially if the visitors struggle to convert early chances.
Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: Common Questions
Who will win Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
Aberdeen are given a 50% chance of victory, compared to 22% for Kilmarnock and 28% for the draw. The model leans Aberdeen’s way due to their superior away attack and dominance in recent head-to-heads.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen?
There’s a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides failing to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches and averaging over 13 shots per game recently.
Can Aberdeen end their losing streak against Kilmarnock?
Despite four straight defeats, Aberdeen’s away form and historical record against Kilmarnock (six wins in the last ten meetings) suggest they are well placed to bounce back, with a 78% chance of avoiding defeat (double chance X2).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.