Dundee vs ST Johnstone Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Dundee
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 0
ST Johnstone
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
Match Result
7.2/10Late Drama at Dens Park as St Johnstone Deny Dundee with Last-Gasp Equaliser
Dundee and St Johnstone played out a dramatic 1-1 draw at Dens Park, with both goals arriving in the dying minutes. The hosts looked set to snatch all three points after breaking the deadlock in the 87th minute, only for St Johnstone to respond with a stoppage-time equaliser that stunned the home crowd. Both sides battled evenly throughout, with St Johnstone edging possession (52%) and creating more chances, but neither could find a breakthrough until the frantic finale. The match was a tense and physical affair, reflected in the 30 fouls committed between the teams and two yellow cards shown to the visitors. While St Johnstone registered more shots (15 to Dundee's 10) and forced more corners, Dundee's resilience and late attacking push nearly paid off before their hopes were dashed at the death. Ultimately, the spoils were shared in a contest marked by late drama and missed opportunities.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
87' — Goal
J. Westley puts Dundee ahead with a late strike, sending the home fans into celebration.
90' — Goal
J. Gullan equalises for St Johnstone in stoppage time, breaking Dundee hearts.
70' — Yellow Card
St Johnstone's first yellow card, reflecting the increasing tension as the match entered its final phase.
81' — Yellow Card
Second yellow card for St Johnstone, as fouls mount during Dundee's late push.
Dundee
Dundee delivered a disciplined display, sticking to their 4-4-2 shape and absorbing pressure for much of the contest. They managed only 48% possession and struggled to create clear-cut chances, with just two shots on target from ten attempts. However, their persistence was rewarded with a late goal that seemed destined to secure victory, only for defensive lapses to cost them in stoppage time. The midfield worked hard to disrupt St Johnstone's rhythm, and Dundee's back line held firm under sustained pressure until the final moments. The lack of attacking fluidity and inability to see out the result will be a source of frustration for Tony Docherty's side.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ST Johnstone
St Johnstone showed greater attacking intent throughout, controlling possession (52%) and registering 15 shots, three of which tested the Dundee keeper. Their persistence paid off with a dramatic equaliser in the 90th minute, salvaging a point when defeat seemed imminent. The midfield, led by S. Stanton and J. Holt, dictated the tempo and helped St Johnstone win the territorial battle. Despite their attacking superiority, St Johnstone lacked clinical edge for much of the match and were nearly punished for their profligacy. Defensively, they remained composed, conceding few clear chances, but momentary lapses nearly cost them dearly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a classic 4-4-2, leading to a midfield battle that saw St Johnstone shade possession and dictate much of the play. Dundee focused on defensive solidity, keeping their shape and looking to hit on the break, but struggled to transition effectively into attack. St Johnstone's width and willingness to get forward resulted in more shots and corners, but their final ball often lacked precision. As the match wore on, Dundee's substitutions injected fresh legs, allowing them to press higher and eventually break the deadlock. However, St Johnstone responded by pushing their full-backs forward and committing numbers to the attack, culminating in the late equaliser. Set pieces were a key avenue for St Johnstone, who won five corners, but Dundee's defense largely coped until the final moments.
Turning Point
J. Gullan's 90th-minute equaliser, which snatched a point for St Johnstone just as Dundee looked set for victory.
Man of the Match
J. Gullan
Kept his composure to score the stoppage-time equaliser and was a constant threat in attack.
Dundee vs ST Johnstone: Match Preview
Dundee enter this fixture second in the Premiership table, buoyed by a run of three wins from their last four in all competitions and a defensive record that has seen them concede just once in three league outings. St Johnstone, sitting sixth, have split their opening two league games but struggled for attacking fluency away from home, failing to score at St Mirren and registering just two shots on target in that match. Both sides are looking to consolidate early-season momentum, with Dundee seeking to maintain their perfect home record and St Johnstone aiming to prove they can travel effectively.
Statistically, the matchup tilts towards a low-scoring affair. Dundee average only 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per league match, with a 66.7% clean sheet rate and no BTTS outcomes in their last five. St Johnstone's away record is less convincing: they have failed to score in their only league trip and average just 1.6 shots on target per game over their last five. The head-to-head history reinforces this trend, with only three of the last ten meetings seeing both teams score and just one producing more than two goals.
The model expects a cagey contest, with Dundee's defensive setup and St Johnstone's limited away firepower likely to keep the scoreline tight. The most probable scenario is a narrow home win, with the likeliest correct score 1-0. The main threat to this projection would be an early goal opening up the match or a set-piece breakthrough, but the underlying rates support a slow, low-event encounter.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dundee vs ST Johnstone Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dundee vs ST Johnstone that most previews miss.
- 1Dundee have not seen both teams score in any of their last five matches, with three clean sheets in that span.
- 2St Johnstone's last five matches have averaged just 2.0 total goals, and their only away league game ended 1-0.
- 3The last ten head-to-head meetings have averaged only 2.0 goals per game, with four ending in draws.
Who do you think wins: Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dundee vs ST Johnstone(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No
Dundee have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches and have not seen both teams score in any of those games; St Johnstone have failed to score in two of their last five and were blanked in their only away league match so far.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have combined for just one over 2.5 in five total league games this season, with Dundee averaging 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded per game, and St Johnstone failing to score in their only away league outing.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Dundee vs ST Johnstone Prediction
This fixture projects as a low-scoring contest shaped by Dundee's defensive solidity and St Johnstone's away struggles in attack. Dundee have conceded just once in three league matches, including a clean sheet in their only home game, while St Johnstone have yet to score away from home in the league and managed only two shots on target in their last away outing. The underlying rates point to a slow-burn affair, with neither side prolific in the first half and both managers likely to prioritise structure over risk.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →St Johnstone have averaged only 1.6 shots on target per match across their last five games, indicating limited attacking threat.
- →The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced just one instance of both teams scoring more than two goals combined.
Defence
- →Dundee's season clean sheet rate stands at 66.7%, with three clean sheets in their last five matches.
🚩 Dundee vs ST Johnstone Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Dundee and 4 for ST Johnstone, for an expected total of 8.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 43% · Over 10.5: 20%.
How Dundee and ST Johnstone Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dundee vs ST Johnstone Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dundeelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Johnstonelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundee have built early-season momentum with two wins from three league games and three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions. St Johnstone, meanwhile, have shown inconsistency, splitting their opening league fixtures and struggling for attacking output away from home, as evidenced by their 1-0 loss at St Mirren.
Dundee vs ST Johnstone — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Dundee vs ST Johnstone
Dundee have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten meetings and losing just once, with four draws. The fixture has consistently produced low scores, with only one of the last ten seeing more than two goals, and both teams have scored in just three of those encounters.
Dundee vs ST Johnstone Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Dundee wins
5
Draws
1
ST Johnstone wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Dundee vs ST Johnstone
No bookmaker odds are available, so value cannot be quantified directly. However, the model's strong lean towards 'no' on BTTS and under 2.5 goals suggests these would be the first markets to check for potential value if and when prices are posted.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Dundee vs ST Johnstone
- ⚠️Small sample size for both teams' league form this season increases volatility in projections.
- ⚠️Absence of bookmaker odds limits ability to quantify value edges.
- ⚠️Early-season tactical adjustments or unreported injuries could shift the goal environment unexpectedly.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dundee 1–0 ST JohnstoneThe model favours a 1-0 win for Dundee, underpinned by their 66.7% clean sheet rate and St Johnstone's lack of attacking output away from home. The most robust data point is Dundee's defensive record, but a low-scoring draw remains plausible if neither side can break through early.
Dundee vs ST Johnstone: Common Questions
Who will win Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
Dundee are rated 46% likely to win, with a 34% chance of a draw and 20% for a St Johnstone victory. The model leans towards a narrow home win based on defensive solidity and recent form.
Will both teams score in Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
No is strongly favoured, with a 72% probability. Dundee have not seen both teams score in any of their last five matches, and St Johnstone have failed to score in two of their last five.
How many goals will be scored in Dundee vs ST Johnstone?
Under 2.5 goals is rated 68% likely, reflecting both teams' low scoring rates and a head-to-head trend of low totals. The most probable correct score is 1-0 to Dundee.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dundee vs ST Johnstone: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.