Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Kilmarnock
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
ST Johnstone
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone: Match Preview
Kilmarnock enter this fixture 11th in the table, having finally broken a poor run with a 3-2 home win over Motherwell. Their home record remains a concern, with just one win and 13 goals conceded in five at Rugby Park. St Johnstone, sitting 5th, have steadied after an inconsistent start, drawing three of their last five and grinding out a 1-0 away win at Aberdeen. Both sides are in need of points, but neither has found a consistent formula for three points.
Statistically, this is a clash of modest attacks and vulnerable defences. Kilmarnock's 1.11 goals scored per game is offset by a league-worst 2.22 conceded, while St Johnstone have been more balanced at 1.22 for and against. Notably, St Johnstone's away output is particularly blunt (0.75 goals per away game), and their matches trend under (only 33% over 2.5 goals for the season). Both teams average under 10 shots per game and less than 45% possession, suggesting a midfield battle with few clear-cut chances. Set-piece threat is limited, with neither side averaging more than five corners per match.
The model expects a low-scoring, attritional contest, with both teams likely to prioritise defensive solidity after recent lapses. The likeliest scenario is a 1-1 draw, with the distribution of goals favouring a cagey first half and a greater chance of scoring after the break. While the last H2H produced seven goals, underlying rates point to a much more restrained affair this time.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone that most previews miss.
- 1St Johnstone's away matches average just 1.75 total goals, lowest among the league's top half.
- 2Kilmarnock have conceded multiple goals in 4 of 5 home games, but have only scored more than once at Rugby Park once this season.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, only one has ended level, but the most common scoreline is 1-1.
Who do you think wins: Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams have averaged just over a goal per game in the league (Kilmarnock 1.11, St Johnstone 1.22), while neither side keeps clean sheets reliably (Kilmarnock 22%, St Johnstone 11%). The draw is also the most common outcome in their recent form and the most probable single scoreline by the model.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Despite a high-scoring H2H in August, both sides are trending under 2.5 goals in their last five (St Johnstone 4/5 under, Kilmarnock 3/5 under) and their combined season average is 2.33 goals per match.
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The Case For This Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Prediction
Kilmarnock's defensive frailty at home (13 conceded in 5) meets a St Johnstone side that rarely cuts loose away (just 3 scored in 4). Both teams' season scoring rates hover around one per game, and neither has shown consistent ability to put matches away. The most likely scenario is a tightly contested draw with limited clear chances, as both sides' shot and possession numbers are below league average.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams have failed to score in just 1 of their last 5, but their xG and shot volumes remain modest.
Defence
- →Kilmarnock average 2.22 goals conceded per game this season, worst in the league.
Match Context
- →St Johnstone have scored just 3 goals in 4 away matches, with a 25% away win rate.
🚩 Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Kilmarnock and 3.5 for ST Johnstone, for an expected total of 7.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 39% · Over 10.5: 17%.
How Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Johnstonelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Kilmarnock have picked up a win and a draw in their last three, but remain defensively fragile with 20 goals conceded in nine matches. St Johnstone are unbeaten in three and have lost just one of their last five, but their attack has produced only five goals in that span. Both sides are trending towards low-scoring, closely contested matches.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone — Last 9 Matches
What History Says: Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone
St Johnstone have the edge in recent meetings, winning five of the last ten, including a wild 4-3 earlier this season. However, Kilmarnock have taken two of the last three at home, and the only draw in the last ten was a 1-1 at Rugby Park. The series has produced several tight contests despite the occasional goalfest.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Kilmarnock wins
1
Draws
5
ST Johnstone wins
Things to Watch: Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent H2H included a 4-3 result, but season-long rates point to a lower goal environment.
- ⚠️Lineups are not available; late changes could impact attacking or defensive balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Kilmarnock 1–1 ST JohnstoneThe model projects a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' season-long scoring rates just above one per game and St Johnstone's lack of away cutting edge. The single strongest data point is Kilmarnock's 2.22 goals conceded per game, but St Johnstone's away attack has not capitalised on such weaknesses consistently. The main risk is another anomalous high-scoring H2H, but the broader rates point to a more cautious contest.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone: Common Questions
Who will win Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
The model gives Kilmarnock a 28% chance of victory, St Johnstone a 35% chance, and the draw a 37% probability. Both teams' modest scoring rates and defensive vulnerabilities make a draw the most likely outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 57%, with both sides averaging just over one goal scored per game and St Johnstone's away matches trending low-scoring (only 33% over 2.5 goals this season).
Is both teams to score a good bet for Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
Both teams to score is rated a 51% chance, reflecting that both have found the net in 3 of their last 5, but neither side has a strong attacking profile. The market is finely balanced.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Resources
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ST Johnstone Predictions
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Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone Stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results