Dundee vs Kilmarnock Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Dundee
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Kilmarnock
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+8% edge)
Recommended Bets: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Dundee vs Kilmarnock: Match Preview
Dundee approach this fixture sitting fourth, buoyed by a five-match unbeaten run at home (W2 D2 L1) and a recent 2-2 draw with Rangers. Kilmarnock, 11th in the table, have stabilised slightly after a poor defensive start, picking up four points from their last three away games and coming off a 3-2 win over Motherwell. Both sides have drawn two of their last five league outings, underlining the competitive balance.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Dundee's reliable home attack (1.6 goals/game last five at Dens Park) against a Kilmarnock defence leaking 2.22 per game across the season. Kilmarnock's away record is marginally better than their overall defensive numbers, conceding 1.75 per trip, but they've managed just one away clean sheet. Both teams are prone to conceding, with BTTS landing in all of Dundee's last five and three of Kilmarnock's last five. Set-piece data shows Dundee generate 5.2 corners per game recently, while Kilmarnock average 4.8, suggesting a moderate set-piece threat on both sides.
The model projects a moderately high-scoring contest, with over 2.5 goals rated at 57% and both teams likely to score (62%). Dundee's edge comes from their higher shot volume and home scoring consistency, but Kilmarnock's ability to find the net late in games (three second-half goals in their last five) keeps them in contention. The draw is rated as the best value in the market, given the balanced head-to-head and similar recent trajectories.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dundee vs Kilmarnock that most previews miss.
- 1Dundee have scored in every one of their last five matches and have not failed to score at home this season.
- 2Kilmarnock have conceded at least once in all but one of their away games, with an average of 1.75 goals against per away fixture.
- 3Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dundee vs Kilmarnock(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.61
The model assigns a 30% probability to the draw (implied odds 3.33), while the market price of 3.6 (implied 28%) offers an 8% edge. Both teams have drawn 2 of their last 5 league matches and 4 of the last 10 head-to-heads have ended level.
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The Case For This Dundee vs Kilmarnock Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a mid-table clash with both sides showing average attacking output and defensive vulnerability. Dundee's home scoring rate (1.6 goals/game last 5 at Dens Park) meets a Kilmarnock away defence conceding 1.75 per trip, while Kilmarnock's attack (1.11 goals/game season average) faces a Dundee defence that has kept just one clean sheet at home all season. The historical head-to-head is balanced, with four draws in the last ten and both teams scoring in seven of those meetings.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Dundee average 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game this season.
- →Kilmarnock concede 2.22 goals per game across the campaign, with only one away clean sheet.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 56% of league matches.
🚩 Dundee vs Kilmarnock Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Dundee and 5.3 for Kilmarnock, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Dundee and Kilmarnock Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dundeelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundee are unbeaten in their last three league matches (W2 D1), scoring twice in each, and have not failed to score in any of their last five. Kilmarnock have stabilised after a rough start, picking up a win and a draw in their last three, but continue to struggle defensively, conceding 20 goals in nine matches.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Head-to-head, the sides are evenly matched with three wins each and four draws in the last ten meetings. Both teams have scored in seven of those, and four have finished level, underlining the fixture's tendency towards competitive, goal-filled contests.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Dundee wins
4
Draws
3
Kilmarnock wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
The model finds the best value on the draw at 3.6, with a model probability of 30% versus the market's 28%. Other markets such as BTTS and over 2.5 goals are priced close to model estimates, offering little edge. Punters seeking value should focus on the stalemate given the historical and statistical balance.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small (last 5 matches), so streaks may not reflect underlying quality.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but late team news could alter expected lineups.
- ⚠️Market odds and model probabilities are close, so value edges are marginal.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dundee 2–1 KilmarnockThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Dundee, anchored by their superior home scoring rate and Kilmarnock's season-long defensive frailty (2.22 goals conceded per game). The strongest data point is Dundee's record of scoring in every home match this campaign. The main risk is Kilmarnock's recent uptick in away form and the frequency of draws in this fixture, which could tilt the outcome towards a stalemate.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock: Common Questions
Who will win Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
Dundee are given a 44% chance of victory, with the draw at 30% and Kilmarnock at 26%. The home side's consistent scoring and Kilmarnock's leaky defence make Dundee slight favourites, but the high draw probability reflects the fixture's historical balance.
Will both teams score in Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%. Dundee have scored in all their home games, while Kilmarnock have conceded in 89% of their league matches, supporting a high likelihood of goals at both ends.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
Over 2.5 goals is estimated at 57%, with both teams averaging over 2.5 goals in 56% of their league matches. However, current market odds (1.67) slightly overstate the probability, so the value is marginal.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dundee vs Kilmarnock: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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