ST Mirren vs Hibernian Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Mirren
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Hibernian
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+3% edge)
Recommended Bets: ST Mirren vs Hibernian
ST Mirren vs Hibernian: Match Preview
ST Mirren come into this clash on the back of five straight defeats, a run that has seen their defensive frailties brutally exposed and their confidence eroded. Their last home outing was a 0-3 loss to Dundee Utd, and they've managed just one win at The SMISA Stadium all season. Hibernian, for their part, sit bottom but have shown a more competitive edge away from Easter Road, with both league victories coming on their travels and a recent League Cup win offering a glimmer of hope.
The tactical battle pivots on whether ST Mirren's leaky defence—conceding 2.8 goals per game in their last five—can withstand a Hibernian side who are creating plenty (14.2 shots per game in that same span) but not always converting. Hibernian's set-piece threat is notable, with a remarkable 15 corners won against Kilmarnock, while ST Mirren's discipline has been patchy, averaging 2.4 yellow cards per game recently. First-half goals could be telling: Hibs have netted four before the break in their last five, while ST Mirren have faded badly after the interval.
The model expects Hibernian's away momentum and attacking output to edge a low-confidence contest. With both sides desperate for a result, the visitors' ability to create chances and their recent dominance in Paisley tilt the balance in their favour, but ST Mirren's home crowd and need to stop the rot could see a tight, nervy affair.
How ST Mirren and Hibernian Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Hibernianlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Mirren's form has collapsed, with five straight defeats and an average of 2.8 goals conceded per match in that period. Hibernian are also struggling, but their away results and attacking metrics are notably stronger, with two wins from four on the road and 14.2 shots per game in their last five. Neither side arrives with momentum, but Hibs' recent away performances offer a glimmer of positivity.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian — Last 9 Matches
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
ST Mirren vs Hibernian Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ST Mirren vs Hibernian that most previews miss.
- 1ST Mirren have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding multiple goals in four of those.
- 2Hibernian have scored four of their last five goals before half-time, but only once after the break in that span.
- 3The last two meetings at The SMISA Stadium have both ended with Hibernian winning to nil (3-0 and 2-0).
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: ST Mirren vs Hibernian?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This ST Mirren vs Hibernian Prediction
ST Mirren are mired in a five-match losing streak, conceding 14 goals and scoring just twice in that span. Hibernian, though bottom, have at least shown flashes of attacking verve away from home, picking up both their league wins on the road and maintaining a higher shot output. Both teams are searching for a foothold, but the form lines suggest Hibs' away threat may be decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Hibernian have scored in four of their last five away matches and average 14.2 shots per game over their last five.
Defence
- →ST Mirren have lost five consecutive matches, conceding 2.8 goals per game in that run.
Match Context
- →The last ten head-to-head meetings are split evenly, but Hibernian have won the last two in Paisley by a combined 6-0.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Mirren vs Hibernian(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.6
Both sides arrive in poor form, but Hibernian's away record is patchy and ST Mirren have at least shown some attacking intent at home. With neither side in rhythm and four of the last ten H2H meetings ending level, the draw is slightly undervalued.
Read more ↓
Corners: Over 8.5
The last five matches see Hibernian averaging 7 corners per game and ST Mirren 3.6, combining for a strong corners trend. Hibernian especially rack up set pieces, with 15 corners in a single recent match.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
🚩 ST Mirren vs Hibernian Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for ST Mirren and 4.6 for Hibernian, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
What History Says: ST Mirren vs Hibernian
The last ten meetings are evenly split, but Hibernian have won the last two in Paisley without conceding. Draws are common in this fixture, with four in the last ten, and only one goalless encounter. Recent trends suggest Hibs have the psychological edge at The SMISA Stadium.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
ST Mirren wins
4
Draws
3
Hibernian wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ST Mirren vs Hibernian
The model sees marginal value on the draw at 3.6, with a 28% probability versus 27.8% implied by the odds. There is no significant edge on Hibernian at current prices, and the BTTS 'no' market is also close to fair value. Set-piece and corners markets may offer opportunity given Hibs' high recent averages, but odds are not available.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ST Mirren vs Hibernian
- ⚠️Both teams are in poor overall form, increasing volatility and the chance of an unpredictable result.
- ⚠️ST Mirren's home attack has underperformed xG recently, but a single early goal could shift the dynamic.
- ⚠️No significant injuries are reported, but lack of lineup data for this future fixture adds uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ST Mirren 1–2 HibernianThe strongest signal is ST Mirren's five-match losing streak, during which they've shipped nearly three goals per game. The model sees Hibernian's sharper away form and higher shot volume as enough to edge a 2-1 away win, but if ST Mirren can rediscover their early-season defensive resilience, a draw is well within reach.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian: Common Questions
Who will win ST Mirren vs Hibernian?
The model gives Hibernian a 49% chance of victory, compared to 23% for ST Mirren and 28% for the draw. Hibs' stronger away form and ST Mirren's five-game losing run are the key factors.
Will both teams score in ST Mirren vs Hibernian?
There's a 54% probability of both teams finding the net, with both sides averaging a goal per game over their last five and only two clean sheets combined in their last ten matches.
Can ST Mirren end their losing streak?
ST Mirren have lost five in a row, conceding 14 goals and scoring just twice in that run. While their home record is poor, Hibernian's inconsistency means a draw or narrow home win can't be ruled out, but the numbers favour the visitors.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Mirren vs Hibernian: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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