Hibernian vs Celtic Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Hibernian
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Celtic
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.05(+35% edge)
Recommended Bets: Hibernian vs Celtic
Hibernian vs Celtic: Match Preview
Hibernian enter this fixture at the foot of the table, winless in five home league games and coming off back-to-back defeats. Their home record (0W, 1D, 4L, 4 scored, 9 conceded) underlines the struggle, while Celtic arrive top of the Premiership with a perfect away record (4W, 0D, 0L) and the division's best defensive numbers on the road. The gap in points (21 to 7) and form string (LLDLL for Hibs, WLWWW for Celtic) is stark.
Statistically, the matchup is lopsided: Celtic average 2.5 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded away, while Hibernian manage only 0.8 goals per home game and have failed to score in two of their last five overall. Hibs do generate chances (14.2 shots, 4.4 on target per home game last five), but their conversion rate is poor, and they have not kept a single clean sheet this league campaign. BTTS has landed in just two of their last five, and the same for Celtic, whose defensive structure has been consistent even in defeat.
The model projects a low likelihood of Hibernian breaching Celtic's defence, with the most probable outcome a controlled away win, likely 0-2. The main threat to this scenario is Hibs capitalising on set-piece volume (7 corners per home game), but on underlying rates, Celtic's superiority at both ends should decide it.
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hibernian vs Celtic Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hibernian vs Celtic that most previews miss.
- 1Celtic's away matches average only 0.5 goals conceded per game this season, the best in the league.
- 2Hibernian have failed to win any of their last five home matches, scoring just four times in that span.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have seen exactly three goals scored, with Celtic winning 2-1 on three occasions.
Who do you think wins: Hibernian vs Celtic?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hibernian vs Celtic(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.11
Hibernian have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 0.8 goals per home game, while Celtic's away defence concedes only 0.5 goals per match this season, supporting a 66% model probability for 'no' in BTTS versus a 49% implied probability.
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Match Result: Celtic Win@ 1.68
Celtic have won all four away league games (10 scored, 2 conceded) and Hibernian are winless at home (0W, 1D, 4L), with the model assigning a 66% win probability versus 60% implied by the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.2
While Hibernian's home matches average 2.6 goals, Celtic's away defence is robust (0.5 conceded per game) and the model gives a 48% chance of under 2.5 goals, slightly above the 45% implied probability.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Hibernian vs Celtic Prediction
Celtic's statistical edge is clear: their away scoring rate (2.5 per game) and defensive solidity (0.5 conceded) dwarf Hibernian's home output at both ends. Hibs' shot volume is respectable but their conversion rate is poor and they have not won at Easter Road this season. The likeliest scenario is a controlled Celtic win, with Hibs struggling to break through.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Celtic have won 4/4 away league matches, scoring 10 and conceding 2.
- →Hibernian have failed to win at home in five attempts, scoring just 4 and conceding 9.
Match Context
- →BTTS has landed in only 2 of Hibernian's last 5 and 2 of Celtic's last 5.
🚩 Hibernian vs Celtic Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7 corners for Hibernian and 5.5 for Celtic, for an expected total of 12.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (80%). Over 8.5: 88% · Over 10.5: 70%.
How Hibernian and Celtic Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hibernian vs Celtic Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hibernianlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Celticlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hibernian's recent form is poor, with four defeats and a draw in their last five league matches and no home wins all season. Celtic, by contrast, have won seven of eight in the league, including all four away games, and have conceded only four goals in total.
Hibernian vs Celtic — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Hibernian vs Celtic
Celtic have dominated this fixture, winning seven of the last ten meetings and three straight at Easter Road by a 2-1 margin. Hibernian have not kept a clean sheet in any of the last ten encounters, and only one of those matches ended in a draw.
Hibernian vs Celtic Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Hibernian wins
1
Draws
7
Celtic wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hibernian vs Celtic
The BTTS 'no' market stands out, with the model assigning a 66% probability versus the 49% implied by odds of 2.05. Celtic's away win is also modest value, with a 66% model probability against 60% implied. Under 2.5 goals is a marginal value play, reflecting the low-scoring tendencies of both sides in this matchup.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hibernian vs Celtic
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides includes cup and European matches, which may affect league performance baselines.
- ⚠️Hibernian's shot volume at home is high (14.2 per game last 5) but finishing has been poor; a finishing spike could skew the BTTS market.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hibernian 0–2 CelticCeltic are strongly favoured to win 2-0, driven by their league-best away defence (0.5 goals conceded per away match) and Hibernian's inability to convert home chances into goals. The most plausible risk is Hibs finally converting their high shot volume into a goal, which would threaten the BTTS 'no' and under 2.5 markets.
Hibernian vs Celtic: Common Questions
Who will win Hibernian vs Celtic?
Celtic are clear favourites with a 66% model probability to win, reflecting their perfect away record and Hibernian's struggles at home. Hibs are given just a 12% chance of victory, with the draw at 22%.
Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Celtic?
The model gives a 66% probability to 'no' on BTTS, as Hibernian have failed to score in two of their last five and Celtic's away defence concedes just 0.5 per game.
Is under 2.5 goals value in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is rated a 48% chance by the model, slightly above the 45% implied by bookmaker odds (2.20). Celtic's defensive record and Hibs' low home scoring support a cautious goal environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hibernian vs Celtic: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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