ST Mirren vs Dundee Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Mirren
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Dundee
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Dundee Win
@ 3.3(+55% edge)
Recommended Bets: ST Mirren vs Dundee
ST Mirren vs Dundee: Match Preview
ST Mirren return to The SMISA Stadium desperate to halt a four-game losing run that has seen their season stall after a promising start. Their recent collapse has been dramatic, with ten goals conceded in just their last two matches and a worrying lack of attacking threat—three blanks in their last five. Dundee, meanwhile, have surged into the top four on the back of consecutive wins, their confidence underpinned by a robust attack that has scored in every league match since late August.
The tactical battle tilts towards the visitors, whose 4.6 shots on target per game in the last five is more than double the hosts' output. Dundee's ability to create chances from wide areas and set pieces (over five corners per game recently) will test a ST Mirren defence that's been vulnerable, especially late in games. Both sides have discipline issues—ST Mirren average 2.4 yellows per match—but Dundee's superior efficiency in front of goal could prove decisive, particularly if the game opens up after the break.
Given the current trajectories, the model expects Dundee's momentum to continue. Their sharper attack and greater confidence should see them edge a high-tempo contest, with ST Mirren's recent defensive woes likely to be exposed again. A 2-1 away win is forecast, but if ST Mirren can rediscover their early-season resilience, a draw is not out of the question.
How ST Mirren and Dundee Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Mirrenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundeelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ST Mirren enter this fixture in the midst of a severe slump, having lost four consecutive matches and conceded ten goals in their last two. Their attack has dried up, with just one goal in five games. Dundee, by contrast, are gathering momentum: two straight wins, no failed-to-score results in their last five, and a growing sense of attacking purpose.
ST Mirren vs Dundee — Last 8 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
ST Mirren vs Dundee Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ST Mirren vs Dundee that most previews miss.
- 1Dundee have scored in all of their last five matches and have not failed to find the net away from home this season.
- 2ST Mirren have failed to score in three of their last five, managing just one goal in that stretch.
- 3All of Dundee's last five matches have seen both teams score, with an average of 2.8 total goals per game.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: ST Mirren vs Dundee?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This ST Mirren vs Dundee Prediction
Momentum is the story as Dundee head to Paisley, riding a surge of confidence after back-to-back wins and a run of five consecutive matches with both teams scoring. In stark contrast, ST Mirren are mired in a four-game losing streak, having shipped ten goals in their last two outings and failing to find the net in three of their last five. The form lines could hardly be more divergent, with Dundee's attack looking sharper by the week and ST Mirren's confidence ebbing away. Statistically, Dundee's recent attacking numbers leap off the page: 1.4 goals per game from 11.8 shots and 4.6 on target, compared to ST Mirren's anaemic 0.4 goals and just 2 shots on target per match over the same span. Defensive frailty is a theme for both, but especially for the hosts, whose last five have seen them concede at over two goals per game. Set-piece data hints at additional danger for ST Mirren, with Dundee earning over five corners per match recently, while the home side's discipline (2.4 yellows per game) could invite further pressure. The model expects Dundee's momentum to carry them through, projecting a 2-1 away win. The biggest risk is a regression from Dundee's attack if their recent shot conversion proves unsustainable, or if ST Mirren manage to stabilise defensively at home. Still, with the current trajectories, Dundee's edge in form and attacking intent is too strong to ignore.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Dundee are on a two-game winning streak, scoring twice in each match and averaging 1.4 goals per game over their last five.
Defence
- →ST Mirren have lost four straight, conceding 11 goals in their last four and failing to score in three of their last five.
- →Dundee have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches, while ST Mirren's defence is conceding at 2.2 per game recently.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Mirren vs Dundee(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Dundee Win@ 3.33
Dundee arrive on a two-match winning streak, averaging 1.4 goals and 4.6 shots on target per game in their last five, while ST Mirren have lost four straight and failed to score in three of those. The model rates Dundee's momentum and attacking output as a clear edge, especially at a price that underrates their current level.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.61
Dundee have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches, while ST Mirren's defence has conceded 11 goals in their last four. Form trends point to defensive vulnerability on both sides.
Read more ↓
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🚩 ST Mirren vs Dundee Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for ST Mirren and 5.4 for Dundee, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
What History Says: ST Mirren vs Dundee
Dundee have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten meetings and claiming two away victories in Paisley during that span. Both teams have found the net in four of the last five encounters, with away teams often faring well in this matchup.
ST Mirren vs Dundee Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
ST Mirren wins
2
Draws
5
Dundee wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ST Mirren vs Dundee
The biggest value edge is on Dundee to win at 3.3, with the model's 47% win probability far exceeding the 30% implied by the odds. There's also a marginal edge on 'over 2.5 goals' and 'both teams to score', but the away win stands out as the most mispriced market given current form dynamics.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ST Mirren vs Dundee
- ⚠️ST Mirren's underlying shot and possession numbers are not as poor as their results, suggesting some potential for a bounce if finishing improves.
- ⚠️Dundee's recent uptick in attack could regress if their shot conversion rate drops or if ST Mirren tighten up defensively.
- ⚠️No injuries reported for either side, but lineups are not confirmed; late changes could affect tactical balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ST Mirren 1–2 DundeeThe model calls this 2-1 to Dundee, driven by the visitors' clear momentum—two straight wins and a consistent attacking output—against a ST Mirren side in freefall. The single strongest data point is Dundee's streak of five straight matches with both teams scoring and their ability to create high-quality chances. The main risk is that ST Mirren's underlying shot numbers suggest they could snap out of their slump if their finishing improves or if Dundee's defence regresses.
ST Mirren vs Dundee: Common Questions
Who will win ST Mirren vs Dundee?
The model gives Dundee a 47% chance of victory, compared to 25% for ST Mirren and 28% for the draw. Dundee's recent form and attacking numbers make them slight favourites, especially given ST Mirren's four-game losing streak.
Will both teams score in ST Mirren vs Dundee?
There's a 62% probability that both teams will score, with Dundee seeing BTTS in each of their last five matches and ST Mirren's defence conceding heavily of late.
Can Dundee's winning streak continue?
Dundee have won their last two matches and are unbeaten in three of five, with their attack averaging 1.4 goals per game over that stretch. The model rates their momentum highly, projecting a strong chance of another positive result.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Mirren vs Dundee: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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