Aberdeen vs Hibernian Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Aberdeen
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Hibernian
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+12% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Hibernian Run Riot at Pittodrie with Ruthless Second-Half Display
Hibernian produced a devastating second-half performance to sweep aside Aberdeen 4-0 at Pittodrie Stadium, sending a statement of intent in the Premiership. After a cagey first half, the visitors found their rhythm after the break, scoring four unanswered goals and dominating the match with 58% possession and 21 total shots, including six on target. Aberdeen struggled to match Hibernian's intensity and attacking verve, despite creating 15 attempts of their own. The Dons' resistance finally broke in the 57th minute, and from there, Hibs never looked back, adding three more goals in the final 11 minutes to complete a comprehensive away victory.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 4
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
57' — Goal
Hibernian break the deadlock, capitalizing on sustained pressure to take a 1-0 lead.
79' — Goal
Hibernian double their advantage, putting the game firmly in their control.
87' — Goal
Hibernian add a third, exploiting Aberdeen's defensive lapses.
90' — Goal
Hibernian round off a dominant display with a fourth goal in stoppage time.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams receive a yellow card each in a physical contest.
Aberdeen
Aberdeen started brightly enough, matching Hibernian in effort and registering 15 shots, but only two found the target as their attacking play lacked cutting edge. The midfield struggled to maintain possession (42%) and was eventually overrun as the match wore on. Defensively, the Dons held out until the 57th minute but collapsed under sustained pressure late on, conceding three goals in the final 11 minutes. Despite eight corners and some promising moments, Aberdeen's inability to convert chances and their late defensive frailty proved costly in front of their home fans.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hibernian
Hibernian delivered a clinical and dominant performance, particularly in the second half. With 58% possession and 21 shots (six on target), they controlled midfield through the likes of J. Newell and M. Chaiwa, and found a ruthless edge in front of goal after the break. The breakthrough in the 57th minute opened the floodgates, and Hibs piled on three more goals late, showcasing their attacking depth and composure. Defensively, Hibernian remained composed, limiting Aberdeen to just two shots on target and calmly dealing with pressure from set pieces. Their tactical discipline and attacking variety were key to a commanding away win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Hibernian's midfield pairing of Chaiwa and Newell proved far more effective at dictating play. Hibs pressed aggressively, especially after halftime, forcing errors and regaining possession high up the pitch. Their use of width and quick transitions stretched Aberdeen's back line, particularly in the final 20 minutes, leading to a flurry of late goals. Aberdeen, by contrast, struggled to connect midfield to attack and lacked presence in the final third. Their early defensive shape was solid, but as they chased the game, gaps appeared, which Hibernian exploited ruthlessly. Set pieces offered some hope for the hosts (eight corners), but Hibs' defense stood firm.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 57th minute shattered Aberdeen's resistance and shifted momentum decisively in Hibernian's favor.
Man of the Match
J. Newell
Orchestrated the midfield, drove Hibernian's dominance in possession, and was key to their attacking surge.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian: Match Preview
Aberdeen and Hibernian approach this fixture from similar positions of frustration, both sitting in the lower reaches of the Premiership table after 11 rounds. Aberdeen have lost back-to-back home matches, including a 0-1 defeat to Falkirk despite 15 shots, and their only win in the last four was a 3-1 over St Mirren. Hibernian, meanwhile, are winless in five (DLLLD), but have managed to avoid defeat in two of their last three away games, including a 1-1 draw at St Mirren.
The statistical matchup is defined by parity: Aberdeen's home record (2W 1D 3L, 5:5 goals) is almost a mirror of Hibernian's away (2W 1D 2L, 6:6). Both sides average just over a goal scored per game and are conceding at a similar rate, with neither defence managing a clean sheet in their last five league outings. Recent matches have seen both teams involved in BTTS outcomes (Aberdeen 3/5, Hibs 4/5), but shot conversion has been an issue—Aberdeen, for example, fired 23 shots against St Johnstone and failed to score.
Given these rates and the head-to-head trend of close, low-scoring games, the model expects a cautious, competitive contest with little to separate the sides. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, as neither attack is consistent enough to exploit the other's defensive lapses, and both have shown a tendency to settle for a point when under pressure.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Aberdeen vs Hibernian that most previews miss.
- 1Aberdeen have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five league matches, conceding at least once in each.
- 2Hibernian's away matches average 2.4 total goals, but their last three away have all finished under 2.5.
- 3Four of the last six head-to-head meetings have seen both teams score, with two ending 1-1.
Who do you think wins: Aberdeen vs Hibernian?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Aberdeen vs Hibernian(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.44
The draw probability is modelled at 32%, while the odds imply just 28.6%, creating a notable value edge. Both teams have drawn 5 of their combined 22 matches this season, and their last H2H ended 1-1.
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The Case For This Aberdeen vs Hibernian Prediction
Aberdeen and Hibernian meet at Pittodrie with both sides searching for consistency after difficult starts. Aberdeen have dropped their last two league matches, scoring just once in that span, while Hibernian are winless in five and sit 11th, but have been slightly more resilient away from home. With just three points separating the teams and both in the bottom four, the motivation to avoid further ground lost is clear. Statistically, this is a contest between two mid-table attacks and leaky defences. Aberdeen average 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game, while Hibernian are at 1.00 for and 1.55 against. Aberdeen's home record (W2 D1 L3, 5:5 goals) is almost identical to Hibs' away (W2 D1 L2, 6:6), and both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. The last five for both teams average nearly 3.2 goals combined, but shot and xG data suggest a more modest output, with neither side reliably converting chances. The model expects a tight, low-margin match, with the most likely scoreline a 1-1 draw. Both teams' recent BTTS rates (Aberdeen 60%, Hibs 80% in last five) and a history of close H2H encounters support this. While either side could edge it if they take their chances, the underlying rates and home/away symmetry point to a stalemate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average fewer than 1.1 goals scored per game across the season.
Defence
- →Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five league matches.
Match Context
- →Aberdeen's home and Hibernian's away records are both near parity (Aberdeen 2W 1D 3L, Hibs 2W 1D 2L).
🚩 Aberdeen vs Hibernian Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Aberdeen and 4.6 for Hibernian, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Aberdeen and Hibernian Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Aberdeenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hibernianlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Aberdeen enter on a two-match losing streak, having scored just once in their last two despite decent shot output. Hibernian are also struggling for results, winless in five (DLLLD), but have at least managed to avoid defeat in two of their last three away. Both teams' recent form reflects inconsistency, with neither able to string together positive results.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Aberdeen vs Hibernian
The last 10 meetings between these sides are closely contested, with four draws and neither team dominating. Draws have been common at Pittodrie, and four of the last six meetings have seen both teams find the net. The most recent fixture ended 1-1, reinforcing the likelihood of another close contest.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Aberdeen wins
3
Draws
4
Hibernian wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Aberdeen vs Hibernian
The model identifies the draw as the main value, with a 32% probability against bookmaker odds of 3.5 (28.6% implied), a 12% edge. No other market shows a clear statistical advantage over the odds, as BTTS and over/under are closely matched to the implied probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Aberdeen vs Hibernian
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is volatile, with streaks of both scoring and failing to score.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed.
- ⚠️Aberdeen's shot volume at home is high (15+ per game in last two), but conversion rate is inconsistent.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Aberdeen 1–1 HibernianThe model calls a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, with the strongest data point being the near-identical home/away records and goal rates for both sides. The main risk is that one team capitalises on defensive errors or set-pieces to edge a narrow win, but the underlying numbers point to a stalemate.
Aberdeen vs Hibernian: Common Questions
Who will win Aberdeen vs Hibernian?
The model gives Aberdeen a 37% chance, Hibernian 31%, and a draw 32%. Both teams have similar home/away records and scoring rates, so a draw is the most statistically likely result.
Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Hibernian?
There is a 55% probability of both teams scoring, supported by recent BTTS rates (Aberdeen 60%, Hibernian 80% in their last five) and a history of score draws in this fixture.
Is there value in betting the draw for Aberdeen vs Hibernian?
Yes, the draw is priced at 3.5 (28.6% implied), while the model rates it at 32%, giving a 12% value edge. Both teams' season records and recent H2H suggest a high draw probability.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Aberdeen vs Hibernian: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.