Hibernian vs Aberdeen Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Hibernian
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 0
Aberdeen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.05(+31% edge)
Match Result
6.4/10Stalemate at Easter Road as Hibs and Aberdeen Share the Spoils
Hibernian and Aberdeen played out a tightly contested 1-1 draw at Easter Road in a match that saw both sides enjoy periods of control but ultimately fail to find a decisive winner. Aberdeen struck first through K. Nisbet in the 17th minute, capitalizing on an early spell of pressure, but Hibernian responded after the break with a well-taken goal by O. Elding in the 62nd minute. Both teams created chances—Hibs registering 12 shots to Aberdeen's 9, with each side only managing two shots on target—reflecting a match where defences often had the upper hand. Despite Hibernian edging possession with 52% and forcing six corners, Aberdeen's threat from set pieces and their nine corners kept the hosts on alert. In the end, neither side could convert late opportunities, and the points were shared after a competitive, if not always clinical, encounter.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
17' — Goal
K. Nisbet scores to give Aberdeen an early lead.
62' — Goal
O. Elding equalizes for Hibernian after sustained pressure.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both sides pick up two yellow cards each in a competitive midfield battle.
Hibernian
Hibernian showed resilience to come from behind after conceding early, controlling possession for much of the match and pushing forward with intent, particularly after halftime. Their 3-4-1-2 formation allowed them to dominate midfield phases and create 12 shots, but only two found the target—a statistic that underscores their attacking inefficiency on the day. The hosts responded well to adversity, with O. Elding’s equalizer in the 62nd minute sparking a spell of pressure, but they ultimately lacked the cutting edge to claim all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Aberdeen
Aberdeen started brightly, taking the lead through K. Nisbet in the 17th minute and looking dangerous from set pieces, as evidenced by their nine corners. Their 3-5-2 setup provided stability in midfield and allowed them to transition quickly, but after conceding the equalizer, they found it difficult to regain control. Despite matching Hibs with two shots on target and maintaining discipline at the back, Aberdeen’s attack faded in the second half, and they were unable to capitalize on late opportunities.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hibernian lined up in a 3-4-1-2, seeking to control the midfield and utilize wing-backs for width. This allowed them to dominate possession and create more shooting opportunities, but Aberdeen’s compact 3-5-2 frustrated the hosts, especially in the first half. Aberdeen’s early lead came from exploiting space behind Hibs’ wing-backs, but as the match wore on, Hibs gained a foothold, particularly after halftime, pushing their midfield higher and forcing Aberdeen deeper. Both teams were disciplined defensively, with neither side able to consistently break the other down, and set pieces became a key battleground—Aberdeen’s nine corners a testament to their threat in this area. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half saw Hibs commit more men forward, while Aberdeen sought to protect their point, dropping their wing-backs deeper and looking to counter. Ultimately, the tactical battle ended in stalemate, with both managers likely content with a point but aware of missed opportunities.
Turning Point
O. Elding’s 62nd-minute equalizer shifted momentum to Hibernian, but their inability to capitalize fully ensured the match ended level.
Man of the Match
O. Elding
Scored the crucial equalizer and led the line with energy, sparking Hibs’ best attacking moments.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen: Match Preview
Hibernian return to Easter Road after a mixed start, sitting 8th with two wins from five but still searching for their first home points. Their recent form is patchy (LLWLD), but they've shown attacking intent, averaging 14.2 shots and 1.2 goals per game over the last five. Aberdeen, 10th and winless away, have managed just two goals in five league outings and have failed to score in their last three Premiership matches.
The numbers point to a clear stylistic contrast: Hibernian's attack generates volume (14.2 shots, 5.4 corners per game), while Aberdeen are blunt up front, averaging just 0.6 goals and 1.8 shots on target per match across their last five. Hibernian's defence is vulnerable (1.8 conceded per game), but Aberdeen's away record is dire—zero goals scored and five conceded in two matches. Both teams have shown discipline issues, with Hibernian averaging 2.2 yellows and Aberdeen three per game recently.
Given these rates, the model expects Hibernian to control territory and chances, with Aberdeen likely to sit deep and struggle to transition. The likeliest scenario is a home win to nil, with a moderate chance of the draw if Hibernian's finishing falters. The goal environment is slightly above average, but Aberdeen's scoring drought weighs heavily against BTTS.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hibernian vs Aberdeen that most previews miss.
- 1Aberdeen have failed to score in four consecutive league matches, including both away games this season.
- 2Hibernian's last five home league meetings with Aberdeen have produced four clean sheets for the hosts.
- 3Combined, these sides average just 1.8 goals per game in their last five league matches.
Who do you think wins: Hibernian vs Aberdeen?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hibernian vs Aberdeen(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.06
Aberdeen have failed to score in four of their last five league matches and have yet to score away from home this season (0 goals in 2 away games), while Hibernian have only failed to score once in their last five. The model gives a 64% chance of BTTS 'no' versus a 48.8% implied probability at these odds.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.67
The draw is slightly undervalued by the market, with the model assigning a 28% probability versus 26.7% implied. Both teams have struggled for consistency, and Hibernian have yet to win at home this season.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Hibernian vs Aberdeen Prediction
Statistical rates point to a low-scoring contest dominated by Hibernian's attacking volume against Aberdeen's anaemic away record. Hibernian's shot output and scoring rate at home should eventually break down an Aberdeen side that has failed to find the net in either away league match this season. Discipline and set-piece rates suggest a stop-start encounter, with the most likely outcome a home win to nil.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Hibernian average 14.2 shots and 4.2 shots on target per game over their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Aberdeen have not scored in any away league match this season (0 goals in 2 away).
- →Aberdeen have failed to score in four of their last five league matches.
🚩 Hibernian vs Aberdeen Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Hibernian and 4.8 for Aberdeen, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Hibernian and Aberdeen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hibernianlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Aberdeenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Hibernian have alternated between wins and losses, with two victories in their last five but no points yet at home. Their attack is generating chances, but defensive lapses have cost them. Aberdeen are in a worse run, winless in their last four league matches and goalless in three straight, including both away fixtures.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Hibernian vs Aberdeen
Hibernian have dominated recent head-to-heads at Easter Road, winning three of the last four home meetings with clean sheets each time. Only two of the last ten encounters have ended in a draw, and the home side has generally held the upper hand.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Hibernian wins
2
Draws
3
Aberdeen wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hibernian vs Aberdeen
The strongest value edge is on 'BTTS no' at 2.05, where the model's 64% probability far exceeds the market's implied 48.8%. The draw is also slightly undervalued, with a 28% model probability versus 26.7% implied, while the away win is notably overpriced given Aberdeen's lack of attacking threat.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hibernian vs Aberdeen
- ⚠️Small sample on home/away splits early in the season increases variance.
- ⚠️Hibernian's defensive record is poor (1.8 conceded per game), so a single error could allow Aberdeen in.
- ⚠️Both teams have recent red cards, increasing the unpredictability of discipline and lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenThe model projects a 2-0 win for Hibernian, anchored by Aberdeen's inability to score away from home (0 goals in two away league matches) and Hibernian's consistent shot volume. The main risk is Hibernian's own defensive fragility—if Aberdeen break their scoring drought, the match could open up unexpectedly.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen: Common Questions
Who will win Hibernian vs Aberdeen?
Hibernian are favoured by the model with a 56% win probability, compared to 28% for the draw and just 16% for Aberdeen. Hibernian's superior attacking output and Aberdeen's lack of away goals are decisive factors.
Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Aberdeen?
The model gives a 64% probability that both teams will not score, reflecting Aberdeen's record of failing to score in four of their last five league matches and Hibernian's tendency to keep clean sheets in this fixture.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Hibernian vs Aberdeen?
There's a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals according to the model, but this is driven mainly by Hibernian's attack and Aberdeen's defensive frailty; Aberdeen's own scoring threat is minimal based on current rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hibernian vs Aberdeen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.