Charlton vs Derby Predictions
Championship · England
Charlton
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Derby
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.8/10Charlton Edge Derby in Tight Contest at The Valley
Charlton Athletic kicked off their Championship campaign with a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Derby County at The Valley. Despite trailing to an early Derby goal in the 23rd minute, Charlton rallied after the break, scoring twice in the second half to secure all three points. The match was an engaging affair, with both sides creating chances—Charlton managed 13 shots (4 on target) to Derby’s 15 (also 4 on target), but it was the hosts’ clinical finishing and resilience that proved decisive. Derby, who enjoyed more possession (55%) and looked comfortable for much of the first half, were ultimately undone by Charlton’s energetic response and sharper execution in the final third. The visitors’ discipline wavered under pressure, picking up three yellow cards as Charlton pressed for the winner. Tactical tweaks and substitutions in the second half shifted the momentum decisively in the hosts’ favour.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Goal
Sammie Szmodics gave Derby the lead after a well-worked move.
61' — Goal
Matt Godden equalized for Charlton, finishing from close range.
68' — Yellow Card
Lewis Travis booked for a late challenge as Derby came under pressure.
75' — Yellow Card
Craig Forsyth shown yellow for dissent as Charlton pressed forward.
80' — Goal
Sonny Carey put Charlton ahead, finishing off a swift counter-attack.
85' — Yellow Card
Joe Ward booked for a tactical foul to stop a Charlton break.
Charlton
Charlton showed impressive character to overturn a first-half deficit, growing into the game as it wore on. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to press Derby’s midfield and exploit spaces out wide, particularly after the break. Despite having less possession (45%), Charlton made their opportunities count, scoring twice from four shots on target and looking dangerous on the counter. Defensively, Charlton were well-organized, limiting Derby’s clear-cut chances and keeping their composure even after conceding. The midfield pairing of Conor Coventry and Nathaniel Chalobah provided a solid platform, while the attacking quartet behind Matt Godden offered creativity and movement.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Derby
Derby County started brightly, controlling possession (55%) and taking the lead in the 23rd minute. Their 5-3-2 formation gave them defensive solidity and allowed their midfield to dictate the tempo early on. However, they struggled to maintain intensity after halftime, and their attacking threat diminished as Charlton pressed higher up the pitch. Despite registering 15 shots, Derby failed to convert their dominance into further goals. Defensive lapses and a lack of discipline—evidenced by 15 fouls and three yellow cards—proved costly as they lost control in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Charlton’s 4-2-3-1 setup allowed them to absorb Derby’s early pressure and strike on the break, with their attacking midfielders finding pockets of space behind Derby’s wing-backs. The hosts increased their pressing intensity after halftime, forcing errors and winning the ball higher up the pitch. The introduction of fresh legs in midfield and attack gave Charlton renewed energy, helping them to turn the game around. Derby’s 5-3-2 formation provided defensive stability and width in the opening stages, but as Charlton pushed forward, their wing-backs were pinned back, limiting attacking support. The visitors’ inability to adapt tactically after conceding the equalizer allowed Charlton to seize control in the final third.
Turning Point
Matt Godden’s equalizer in the 61st minute shifted momentum, energizing Charlton and putting Derby on the back foot.
Man of the Match
Sonny Carey
Scored the winning goal and was instrumental in Charlton’s second-half resurgence.
Charlton vs Derby: Match Preview
Charlton and Derby open their Championship campaigns with both sides coming off inconsistent pre-season form. Charlton’s last five friendlies have produced two wins, two losses and a draw, with just four goals scored and six conceded. Derby’s record is similarly patchy, with one win, one draw and three defeats, and a marginally better scoring rate of 1.2 goals per game. With both teams starting on zero points, the early league table offers no separation, and neither side brings clear momentum into the contest.
Statistically, this fixture projects as low-scoring. Charlton have failed to score in two of their last five, while Derby have not kept a clean sheet in that span. The average goals per game for both sides sits well below two, and only four of their combined last ten matches have seen both teams score. The head-to-head record is also tight: five Derby wins, three Charlton wins and two draws in the last ten, with three 1-1 results and only two games exceeding three total goals. Set-piece and discipline data are unavailable, but cards and corners are estimated near league averages based on historical rates.
The model expects a cautious opening, with both teams likely to prioritise structure over risk given the lack of competitive minutes. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline supported by both recent scoring rates and the H2H pattern. The main statistical risk is that Derby’s slightly higher attacking output in pre-season could tilt the balance if Charlton’s defence is not settled early in the campaign.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Charlton vs Derby Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Charlton vs Derby that most previews miss.
- 1Charlton have managed just two clean sheets in their last five, while Derby have none in the same span.
- 2Three of the last ten H2H meetings have finished 1-1, making it the most common scoreline in recent history.
- 3Across their last five, Derby matches have seen both teams score four times, but only one has gone over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Charlton vs Derby?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Charlton vs Derby(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides have averaged just over a goal scored and conceded per game in pre-season, and the last 10 H2H meetings have produced three 1-1 draws. With neither attack nor defence showing a clear edge, the draw is the most statistically supported outcome.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have underwhelming attacking output in their last five (Charlton 0.8, Derby 1.2 goals per game), and only two of Charlton’s last five and three of Derby’s last five have gone over 2.5 goals.
Read more ↓
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Charlton vs Derby Prediction
With both Charlton and Derby entering on the back of mixed pre-season results and no league data yet available, this fixture shapes up as a statistical dead heat. Recent friendlies point to modest attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, while the historical head-to-heads suggest a tight contest is likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Charlton have averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match across their last five.
- →Derby have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding 1.6 per game.
Match Context
- →Five of the last ten H2H meetings have ended with one or zero goals for at least one side.
How Charlton and Derby Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Charlton vs Derby Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Charltonlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derbylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Charlton’s pre-season has been inconsistent, with two wins, two defeats and a draw, and a scoring average of just 0.8 per game. Derby have shown slightly more attacking intent, netting 1.2 per match, but defensive frailty has seen them concede 1.6 per game and fail to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Neither side arrives with sustained momentum.
Charlton vs Derby — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Charlton vs Derby
Derby have edged the recent rivalry, winning five of the last ten against Charlton, including a 2-1 away win in January 2026. Three of the last ten meetings have ended 1-1, and only two have featured more than three goals, suggesting a trend towards tight, low-scoring encounters.
Charlton vs Derby Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Charlton wins
2
Draws
5
Derby wins
Things to Watch: Charlton vs Derby
- ⚠️No competitive league data is available for the current season, reducing confidence in team strength estimates.
- ⚠️Pre-season friendlies offer only a partial guide to tactical intent and starting elevens.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Charlton 1–1 DerbyThe data points to a 1-1 draw, with both sides showing modest attacking output and defensive lapses in pre-season. The strongest supporting figure is the repeated 1-1 scoreline in recent H2H meetings. The main risk is that Derby’s slightly higher goal rate in friendlies could translate to a narrow away win if Charlton’s attack remains blunt.
Charlton vs Derby: Common Questions
Who will win Charlton vs Derby?
The model gives Charlton a 29% chance of victory, Derby 35%, and a draw 36%. With both teams showing similar pre-season form and a history of close contests, the draw is marginally the most likely result.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Derby?
There is a 48% probability of both teams scoring, based on recent averages and four of Derby’s last five matches seeing BTTS. However, Charlton have failed to score in two of their last five, so the 'no' is slightly favoured at 52%.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Charlton vs Derby?
The model estimates a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging well under two goals scored per match in pre-season and only two of Charlton’s last five matches exceeding that total.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Charlton vs Derby: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.