Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
Chicago Fire
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
New England Revolution
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.62(+18% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10New England Revolution Stun Chicago Fire with Clinical 2-1 Away Win
At Soldier Field, New England Revolution delivered a textbook display of efficiency to claim a 2-1 victory over a dominant yet wasteful Chicago Fire side. Despite the hosts controlling 60% of possession and unleashing 22 shots (seven on target), it was the Revolution who struck first, with goals on either side of halftime from Dániel Gazdag (39’) and D. Turgeman (47’). Chicago’s relentless pressure finally paid off through R. Lewandowski’s 62nd-minute strike, but the equalizer never came. Chicago’s attacking trio and midfield orchestrated wave after wave of attacks, earning 13 corners and pinning New England deep. However, the visitors’ disciplined 4-3-3 held firm, and Matt Turner’s assured goalkeeping, combined with resolute defending, frustrated the Fire. In the end, New England’s ruthlessness in front of goal and defensive resilience proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
Dániel Gazdag opens the scoring for New England against the run of play.
47' — Goal
D. Turgeman doubles the visitors' lead with a swift finish after halftime.
62' — Goal
R. Lewandowski pulls one back for Chicago, sparking hopes of a comeback.
68' — Yellow Card
Chicago's frustration shows as they pick up a booking in midfield.
75' — Yellow Card
New England cautioned as they defend desperately to protect their lead.
Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire dominated possession and territory, dictating the tempo and creating a plethora of chances. Their 22 shots and 13 corners reflected a side on the front foot, but a lack of clinical finishing and some inspired goalkeeping from Matt Turner left them chasing the game. The midfield trio worked tirelessly to recycle possession and feed the front line, but frustration mounted as opportunities went begging. Defensively, Chicago were caught out twice—once late in the first half and again immediately after the restart—highlighting lapses in concentration that proved costly. Despite a spirited push after Lewandowski’s goal, the Fire couldn’t break through a compact New England defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
New England Revolution
New England Revolution executed a classic away performance, soaking up pressure and striking with ruthless efficiency. With just 40% possession and four shots (two on target), they made their moments count—Gazdag’s opener and Turgeman’s quick second after halftime stunned the hosts. The midfield trio, led by Carles Gil, worked tirelessly to disrupt Chicago’s rhythm and launch counterattacks. Defensively, the Revolution were disciplined and well-organized, limiting Chicago to half-chances and defending set pieces resolutely. Matt Turner’s leadership and shot-stopping proved vital as the visitors weathered a late barrage to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, but their approaches diverged sharply. Chicago Fire pressed high, overloaded the flanks, and used their full-backs to stretch the play, resulting in a barrage of crosses and set pieces. Their midfield trio sought to control tempo and win second balls, but lacked the incisiveness in the final third to break down a compact New England block. New England, by contrast, sat deep and prioritized defensive organization, with their midfield screening the back four and limiting space between the lines. Their attacking forays were limited but purposeful, capitalizing on turnovers and exploiting gaps left by Chicago’s advanced full-backs. Tactical discipline and game management, especially after going two goals up, were hallmarks of their performance.
Turning Point
D. Turgeman’s goal just two minutes after halftime (47’) shifted the momentum irreversibly in New England’s favor, forcing Chicago to chase the game.
Man of the Match
M. Turner
Produced a string of crucial saves and marshaled his defense superbly under relentless pressure.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: Match Preview
Chicago Fire return to Soldier Field sitting third in the table, just a point ahead of New England Revolution, with both teams locked in a tight playoff race. Chicago have drawn their last three league fixtures, including a frenetic 4-4 at Toronto, and are unbeaten in their last five, though none of those matches produced a clean sheet. New England, meanwhile, arrive off a 2-1 defeat at LA Galaxy but have won two of their last four away, showing an uptick in attacking output with 1.8 goals per game in their last five.
The statistical matchup is defined by strong attacking rates and leaky defences: Chicago's home record features 2.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, while New England's away games average 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded. Both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in more than 65% of their matches this season, and each has failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five. The head-to-head record, however, is unusually draw-heavy, with seven of the last ten meetings finishing level, often in high-scoring fashion.
The model expects a competitive, open contest with both teams likely to score and the draw a live outcome given the historical pattern. Chicago's marginally superior home form and attacking depth give them the edge, but the probability distribution is flatter than the market suggests, especially in the draw and under 2.5 goals markets.
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Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution that most previews miss.
- 1Chicago Fire have not drawn at home this season (7 wins, 3 losses), but seven of the last ten H2H meetings with New England have ended level.
- 2Both teams have scored in all of Chicago's last five and four of New England's last five league matches.
- 3Combined, these sides average 4.0 corners per game above the league mean over their last five matches (Chicago 3.8, New England 5.6).
Who do you think wins: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.19
Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended level, and the model assigns a 28% probability to the draw versus a market implied 24%, creating a notable edge given both sides' high draw rates and closely matched underlying goal differentials.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.7
While both teams' season over 2.5 rates are high, the model pegs the probability of under 2.5 at 32% against a market implied 27%, with both sides showing a recent trend toward tighter games than their season averages suggest.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 2.59
Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 combined matches, but the price on 'no' is inflated relative to the model's 35% probability, offering value if either defence can outperform its recent average.
Read more ↓
More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-variance, attack-leaning contest between two sides with above-average scoring rates but a history of close, often drawn encounters. Chicago Fire's home attack (2.0 goals/game at Soldier Field) faces a Revolution side that concedes 1.64 per away match, while New England's road output (1.36 goals/game) tests a Fire defence allowing 1.1 at home. Both teams' recent matches have skewed toward goals, but the head-to-head record is dominated by stalemates, suggesting a tactical balance that could keep the margin tight.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Chicago Fire have a 70% home win rate (7/10) but no home draws, while New England Revolution have lost 6 of 11 away matches.
Defence
- →Chicago Fire average 1.95 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game this season; New England Revolution average 1.61 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Match Context
- →Seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have been draws, including three of the last four.
🚩 Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Chicago Fire and 3.9 for New England Revolution, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Chicago Fire and New England Revolution Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chicago Firelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chicago Fire are unbeaten in their last five league matches, though four have been draws and all have seen both teams score. New England Revolution have mixed recent results (two wins, two losses, one draw in their last five) but have shown improved attacking output, averaging 1.8 goals per game in that span.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 68% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
The head-to-head record is dominated by draws, with seven of the last ten meetings finishing level and only one of the last five producing a winner. Both teams have consistently scored in these encounters, with five matches ending 2-2 or 1-1.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Chicago Fire wins
6
Draws
2
New England Revolution wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
The model finds the most value in the draw at 4.10, with a 14.8% edge over the market implied probability, and also sees value in 'under 2.5 goals' and 'BTTS no' given the inflated odds relative to recent defensive improvements. These edges are driven by the statistical distribution of outcomes rather than narrative factors.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
- ⚠️Both teams have a high over 2.5 goals rate (Chicago 77%, New England 65%), but the head-to-head history is draw-heavy and includes several lower-scoring matches.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lineups are unavailable at this stage.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides includes high-scoring draws, increasing variance in the goal markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chicago Fire 2–1 New England RevolutionThe model projects a 2-1 win for Chicago Fire, driven by their 2.0 goals per home game and New England's 1.64 conceded per away match. The single strongest data point is the seven draws in the last ten head-to-heads, which tempers confidence in a home win and makes the draw a significant risk to any outright selection.
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: Common Questions
Who will win Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
Chicago Fire are given a 48% chance of victory, with the draw at 28% and New England Revolution at 24%. The model leans Chicago due to their home scoring rate and New England's away struggles, but the high draw probability reflects the recent head-to-head trend.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
The probability for both teams to score is 65%, supported by both sides scoring in nine of their last ten combined matches and neither keeping more than one clean sheet in their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
The model puts the chance of over 2.5 goals at 68%, with both teams' season rates above 65% and recent matches averaging over 3.0 goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Resources
Chicago Fire Predictions
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New England Revolution Predictions
All New England Revolution fixtures & tips
Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Major League Soccer Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results