New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
New England Revolution
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 2
Chicago Fire
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.2/10Turner’s Heroics and Gil’s Magic Lift Revolution Past Dominant Chicago
New England Revolution snatched a gritty 1-0 victory over Chicago Fire at Boston Stadium, despite being outplayed for large stretches of the match. The hosts struck in the 26th minute through a moment of quality from Carles Gil, and then withstood wave after wave of Chicago pressure. Chicago dominated possession (61%) and fired 19 shots to New England’s 5, but a combination of resolute defending and superb goalkeeping from Matt Turner kept the visitors at bay. The Fire will rue their profligacy in front of goal, as they carved out numerous chances but failed to find a way past Turner. New England, meanwhile, showcased clinical finishing and impressive defensive organization, holding on for a valuable three points in front of their home fans.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
1 - 0
Key Moments
26' — Goal
Carles Gil scores with a composed finish to give New England the lead.
34' — Yellow Card
M. Polster (NE) booked for a tactical foul to halt a Chicago counter.
52' — Save
Matt Turner denies R. Lewandowski from close range with a superb stop.
68' — Yellow Card
A. Salétros (CHI) shown yellow for dissent after a missed chance.
75' — Save
Turner again comes up big, tipping over a fierce drive from P. Zinckernagel.
90+2' — Late Pressure
Chicago pile forward in stoppage time, but New England clear their lines to secure the win.
New England Revolution
New England Revolution delivered a disciplined defensive display, soaking up immense pressure from Chicago Fire. Despite having just 39% possession and failing to win a single corner, the hosts made the most of their limited opportunities, converting one of their four shots on target. The midfield trio worked tirelessly to disrupt Chicago’s rhythm, while the back four remained compact and organized throughout. Matt Turner was instrumental between the posts, making several crucial saves to preserve the lead. Carles Gil provided the creative spark, orchestrating play and notching the decisive goal. The Revolution’s resilience and efficiency ultimately proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire dictated the tempo for much of the match, controlling 61% of possession and registering 19 shots (6 on target). Their midfield trio, led by A. Salétros and M. Haile-Selassie, moved the ball well and created numerous opportunities, but the final product was lacking. R. Lewandowski and P. Zinckernagel found themselves repeatedly denied by an inspired Matt Turner. Defensively, Chicago were rarely troubled, but a lapse in concentration allowed Carles Gil to score against the run of play. Despite winning 10 corners and pressing aggressively, the Fire could not break down New England’s stubborn rearguard.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, but the approaches could not have been more different. Chicago Fire sought to control the game through possession and width, using their full-backs and midfielders to overload the flanks and deliver crosses. Their 10 corners and 19 shots reflected a relentless attacking intent, but they struggled to break down New England’s well-drilled low block. New England, by contrast, were content to sit deep, absorb pressure, and break quickly when opportunities arose. Their midfielders dropped back to support the defense, while Carles Gil operated as the creative outlet in transition. The lack of corners and limited shots highlighted their conservative approach, but their tactical discipline paid off.
Turning Point
Carles Gil’s 26th-minute goal against the run of play shifted the momentum and forced Chicago to chase the game, playing into New England’s defensive strengths.
Man of the Match
Matt Turner
His string of crucial saves kept New England ahead and ultimately secured the clean sheet and victory.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire: Match Preview
New England Revolution and Chicago Fire are locked in a tight playoff race, sitting second and fourth in the table and separated by just one point. New England’s home form is a clear strength, with nine wins from thirteen at Gillette Stadium and a +13 goal differential. Chicago, however, have found their stride on the road, taking points in ten of fourteen away matches and coming off two straight wins.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by aggressive attacking rates and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. New England average 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded at home, while Chicago’s away attack produces 1.71 goals per game but also allows 1.71. Both teams’ last five matches average over 3.0 total goals, and neither keeps clean sheets with regularity (NE: 18.5%, CHI: 25.9%). Shot and corner volumes are high, with both sides generating over 14 shots and 5 corners per match in recent weeks.
Given the underlying rates and the history of high-scoring, closely contested head-to-heads, the model expects an open, end-to-end contest. Both teams are likely to score, and the distribution of results points strongly to a draw, with 2-2 the most probable scoreline. The lack of defensive solidity and the attacking profiles of both squads make a high-scoring stalemate the statistical baseline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire that most previews miss.
- 1Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of New England’s and 74% of Chicago’s league matches this season.
- 2Six of the last ten H2H meetings have finished level, with three consecutive draws in Boston (2-2, 1-1, 3-3).
- 3Combined, these teams average 10.6 corners per match over their last five fixtures.
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The Case For This New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Prediction
Both New England Revolution and Chicago Fire arrive in the playoff positions, separated by a single point and with nearly identical season-long scoring and concession rates. New England’s home record (9W, 2D, 2L, 2.00 goals scored per home game) provides a slight edge, but Chicago’s away attack (1.71 goals per away game) and recent uptick in form (back-to-back wins) suggest a high-variance contest. Statistically, this fixture projects as a strong candidate for goals. Both teams are above 70% for over 2.5 goals on the season (NE: 70.4%, CHI: 74.1%), and neither keeps clean sheets with regularity (NE: 18.5%, CHI: 25.9%). New England’s last five matches average 3.6 total goals, and Chicago’s 2.6, with both sides showing a tendency to concede after half-time. Shot volumes are robust (NE: 14.6, CHI: 16.4 per match last five), and corners are plentiful (combined last five average: 10.6 per match). Given the distribution of goals and the recent 2-2 and 3-3 H2H results in Boston, the model expects an open match with both teams finding the net. The likeliest outcome is a high-scoring draw, with the underlying rates and shot data supporting a 2-2 scoreline.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both sides average over 1.6 goals scored per game and concede more than 1.3.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries or suspensions for either side.
Match Context
- →New England are strong at home (9W, 2D, 2L; 2.00 GF, 1.00 GA per home game).
- →Chicago have scored in 12 of 14 away matches and average 1.71 goals per away game.
- →Both teams are above 70% for over 2.5 goals on the season.
🚩 New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for New England Revolution and 6.2 for Chicago Fire, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
How New England Revolution and Chicago Fire Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chicago Firelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New England come in with three wins from their last five, but suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat last time out. Chicago have won their last two, including a 1-0 away win at Charlotte, and have lost just once in their last four. Both teams are scoring regularly but remain defensively fragile.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 73.33% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
What History Says: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
Head-to-head meetings between these sides are historically close, with six draws in the last ten and both teams scoring in eight of those. The last three encounters in Boston have all ended level, with scorelines of 2-2, 1-1, and 3-3, highlighting the tendency for high-scoring stalemates.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
New England Revolution wins
5
Draws
2
Chicago Fire wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
With bookmaker odds unavailable, value calculations and recommended bets cannot be provided. However, the model’s probabilities suggest that markets underestimating the draw or over 2.5 goals may offer value, given the high rates of both outcomes in recent data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
- ⚠️Both teams have volatile recent form, increasing scoreline variance.
- ⚠️No confirmed lineups; late changes could affect attacking/defensive balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New England Revolution 2–2 Chicago FireThe model projects a 2-2 draw, driven by both teams’ season-long scoring rates (NE: 1.67, CHI: 1.81 goals per game) and their shared inability to keep clean sheets. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either side’s attack underperforms relative to their shot volume, or if a late red card tilts the balance.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire: Common Questions
Who will win New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?
The model gives New England a 38% chance to win, Chicago a 32% chance, and a draw 30%. Both teams have similar scoring and concession rates, making a draw the most probable single outcome.
Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?
There is a 66% probability that both teams will score, supported by the fact that both have scored and conceded in at least 70% of their matches this season and eight of the last ten head-to-heads.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 68% probability, with both sides averaging more than 1.6 goals scored and over 1.3 conceded per game, and both exceeding 70% over 2.5 on the season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Resources
New England Revolution Predictions
All New England Revolution fixtures & tips
Chicago Fire Predictions
All Chicago Fire fixtures & tips
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Major League Soccer Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results