New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
New England Revolution
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
New York Red Bulls
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls: Match Preview
New England Revolution approach this fixture in third place, buoyed by back-to-back wins and a formidable home record (10 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses at Gillette Stadium). Their recent form is patchy (WWLLW), but their attack has been reliable, averaging 1.8 goals per home match. In contrast, New York Red Bulls sit eighth, coming off consecutive defeats and with a negative goal difference, but have shown the ability to generate chances on the road.
Statistically, this matchup is shaped by New England's attacking output against a Red Bulls side conceding 1.8 goals per away game. Both teams average over 12 shots and 5 shots on target in their last five, and corners are abundant (combined 13.4 per game recently). However, defensive lapses are common: New England have just one clean sheet in their last five, while Red Bulls' away clean sheet rate is only 13%. First-half goals are likely, with both sides scoring in the opening 45 in four of their last five matches combined.
The model projects a match with goals at both ends, tilting towards a 2-1 home win. New England's home efficiency and Red Bulls' defensive record away from home are the decisive factors, but the visitors' shot volume and past head-to-head success in Boston suggest they remain a threat. Expect a contest with attacking phases and a high probability of over 2.5 goals.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls that most previews miss.
- 1Red Bulls' away matches average 2.93 goals, but their away clean sheet rate is just 13%.
- 2New England have scored first in 54% of their home games this season.
- 3Combined, these teams have averaged 13.4 corners per game over their last five matches.
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The Case For This New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
New England Revolution's home scoring rate (1.8 per game at Gillette Stadium) and Red Bulls' away defensive frailties (1.8 conceded per away match) combine to suggest a goal-rich contest. Both sides have averaged over 12 shots and 5 shots on target in their last five, indicating attacking intent, but New England's superior home record (10 wins from 15) gives them a statistical edge. The model expects New England's attack to break through, but Red Bulls' recent away form and shot volume (17.4 shots per game last five) mean they should not be discounted from the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
Defence
- →New England have won 10 of 15 home games, scoring 27 and conceding 16.
- →Red Bulls have conceded 27 goals in 15 away matches, with just 5 away wins.
🚩 New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for New England Revolution and 6.6 for New York Red Bulls, for an expected total of 12.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (77%). Over 8.5: 85% · Over 10.5: 66%.
How New England Revolution and New York Red Bulls Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New York Red Bullslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New England have bounced back from a pair of defeats with two straight wins, including a 3-2 away victory at Cincinnati and a narrow 1-0 home win over Chicago. Red Bulls, meanwhile, have lost their last two despite averaging 17.4 shots per game in that span, highlighting inefficiency in front of goal. Both sides have shown inconsistency, but New England's home record stands out as a stabilising factor.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
Red Bulls have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten, including three times in Boston. However, New England have won two of the last three at home, and most encounters have been close, with six of the last ten settled by a single goal. The last meeting ended 1-0 to the Red Bulls at their ground.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
New England Revolution wins
1
Draws
6
New York Red Bulls wins
Things to Watch: New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value bets can be identified.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is mixed, introducing variance.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but starting lineups are unknown.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New England Revolution 2–1 New York Red BullsNew England Revolution are favoured for a 2-1 win, underpinned by their 1.8 goals per home game and Red Bulls' 1.8 conceded per away match. The strongest data point is New England's 10 home wins from 15, but the Red Bulls' high shot volume and historical away success in this fixture mean a draw or high-scoring contest cannot be ruled out.
New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls: Common Questions
Who will win New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls?
The model gives New England a 48% chance of victory, with a 28% probability for a draw and 24% for a Red Bulls win. New England's strong home form is the main factor behind their edge.
Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls?
Both teams to score is rated at 58%, reflecting New England's low clean sheet rate (20%) and Red Bulls' attacking output on the road. Defensive lapses on both sides make BTTS more likely than not.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls?
There is a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals, based on New England's 70% season over 2.5 rate and Red Bulls' 56.7% away. Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scores.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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