San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
San Jose Earthquakes
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Colorado Rapids
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids: Match Preview
San Jose Earthquakes enter this fixture unbeaten in five, but with four draws in that span, including a 1-1 result at Colorado just three weeks ago. Their fourth-place standing is built on a strong attack (52 goals in 30 matches), while Colorado sit ninth, hampered by a poor away record (2 wins from 15) despite matching San Jose's recent form string (DDDLD). Both sides are locked in tight playoff races, with San Jose seeking to secure a home advantage and Colorado aiming to hold off the chasing pack.
The statistical matchup is shaped by San Jose's home scoring rate (1.73 per game) and Colorado's defensive struggles on the road (26 conceded in 15 away). Both teams' recent matches have been open: San Jose average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five, while Colorado have put up 1.6 for and 1.8 against in the same span. BTTS has landed in nine of their last ten combined, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last three. Corners are also a factor, with San Jose averaging nearly 7 per match in their last five.
Given these rates, the model expects a game with chances at both ends, but San Jose's more reliable attack and Colorado's travel woes tilt the balance. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but both teams' draw-heavy recent runs and the H2H trend toward close contests mean a repeat of the 1-1 is not far behind.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids that most previews miss.
- 1San Jose's last five matches have all seen both teams score, with an average of 2.8 total goals per game.
- 2Colorado have taken just two points from their last six away matches, conceding 13 goals in that span.
- 3The last three meetings between these sides have all finished with under 3.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
San Jose's home scoring rate (1.73 per game) and Colorado's poor away defensive record (1.73 conceded per away match) point to a likely home win with both teams on the scoresheet; the 2-1 aligns with both sides' season-long goal patterns and recent BTTS streaks.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average above 1.35 goals scored per match, with San Jose matches going over 2.5 in 53% of games and Colorado conceding at a rate of 1.73 per away game; recent form shows 1.6 goals scored per side in the last five.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 5 of San Jose's last 5 and 4 of Colorado's last 5; both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three, with neither defence showing reliability.
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The Case For This San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Prediction
Statistical rates point to a moderately high-scoring encounter, with San Jose's home attack and Colorado's away defensive frailty the key drivers. The distribution of season-long goals for and against, plus BTTS trends, suggest both sides will find the net but the hosts have the edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 4+ of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Colorado have lost 10 of 15 away games, scoring just 0.87 per away match.
Defence
- →San Jose average 1.73 goals scored per game, Colorado concede 1.73 per away match.
🚩 San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for San Jose Earthquakes and 5 for Colorado Rapids, for an expected total of 11.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 83% · Over 10.5: 64%.
How San Jose Earthquakes and Colorado Rapids Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
San Jose Earthquakeslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Colorado Rapidslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last five, but four of those have been draws, including three consecutive 1-1 results. Colorado Rapids mirror that with three straight draws of their own, though their away form remains a concern with just two wins in 15 on the road. Both teams have been scoring consistently but are struggling to turn performances into wins.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
What History Says: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
The head-to-head record is finely balanced, with each side winning four of the last ten and two draws. Recent meetings have been tight, with the last three producing one win each and a draw, and the most recent clash ending 1-1 in Colorado. BTTS has landed in three of the last five encounters.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
San Jose Earthquakes wins
2
Draws
4
Colorado Rapids wins
Things to Watch: San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Both teams have drawn three straight, indicating a risk of a low-variance outcome.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Colorado RapidsSan Jose Earthquakes are favoured to edge this, with a 2-1 scoreline reflecting their superior home attack (1.73 goals per game) against a Colorado side that struggles away (0.87 scored, 1.73 conceded per away match). The main risk is the draw, as both sides have drawn three straight and the H2H record is balanced, but the underlying scoring rates point to a narrow home win with both teams on target.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids: Common Questions
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
San Jose Earthquakes have a 47% probability to win, compared to 23% for Colorado Rapids and 30% for the draw. The model leans toward a home win, driven by San Jose's stronger home attack and Colorado's poor away record.
Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability. San Jose have seen BTTS in all of their last five, and Colorado in four of their last five, with neither side keeping a clean sheet in their last three.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids?
There's a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' season averages (San Jose 1.73 scored, Colorado 1.37) and recent match trends (average 2.8 total goals per game across their last five each).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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