FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
FC Dallas
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
San Jose Earthquakes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+4% edge)
Recommended Bets: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes: Match Preview
FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes approach this fixture with top-four places in the Western Conference at stake, separated by just three points in the standings. Dallas have been particularly resilient at home, suffering only two defeats in fourteen matches, while San Jose have travelled well, picking up seven away wins and losing just three times on the road. Both sides are in solid, if unspectacular, form: Dallas are unbeaten in four and San Jose have drawn four of their last five.
The statistical matchup points to a high-probability goal environment. Dallas average 1.86 goals for and 1.43 against at home, while San Jose's away record stands at 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded per game. Over 2.5 goals has landed in two-thirds of Dallas's matches and just over half of San Jose's, while both teams to score has hit in all of San Jose's last five outings. Set pieces could play a role, with both teams averaging over five corners per game recently, and neither side is especially card-prone, averaging just over 1.5 yellows each in the last five.
Given the underlying rates and the H2H trend towards draws, the model expects a closely contested match with both sides likely to score. Dallas's marginally stronger home defence gives them a slight edge, but San Jose's consistency on the road and the high draw frequency in this matchup suggest a 2-1 or 1-1 result is most probable.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes that most previews miss.
- 1San Jose have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, but have scored in all five.
- 2Five of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, with four finishing 1-1 or 2-2.
- 3Dallas average 5.0 corners per game in their last five, while San Jose's last five away matches average 6.8.
Who do you think wins: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.87
The model assigns a 29% probability to the draw, slightly above the 28% implied by 3.6 odds, with five draws in the last ten H2H meetings and both teams showing strong defensive records at home and away respectively.
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The Case For This FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction
This fixture brings together two of the Western Conference's most consistent sides, both tightly packed in the table and separated by only three points. FC Dallas have lost just twice at home all season (W7 D5 L2), while San Jose Earthquakes have been robust travellers, suffering only three away defeats (W7 D5 L3). Recent form is steady rather than spectacular for both: Dallas are unbeaten in four (W2 D2), and San Jose are on a five-match unbeaten run, though four of those were draws. Statistically, the matchup is shaped by high but not reckless scoring rates: Dallas average 1.86 goals for and 1.43 against at home, while San Jose net 1.73 and concede only 1.27 per away game. Both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in a majority of matches (Dallas 67%, San Jose 53%), and both teams to score has landed in every one of San Jose's last five. Corners are likely to be plentiful, with both averaging over five per match in recent games, and neither side is especially prone to ill discipline (1.6 yellow cards each per last five). The model expects a competitive, open contest with a slight edge to Dallas due to home advantage and their marginally better defensive numbers at Toyota Stadium. However, San Jose's consistent away output and the H2H trend towards close games (five draws in the last ten) suggest a high probability of both teams finding the net and a result that could easily finish level or with a narrow home win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Dallas have lost only two of fourteen at home, scoring 26 and conceding 20.
- →San Jose have the second-best away defence in the conference, conceding just 1.27 per away game.
- →Both teams have scored in each of San Jose's last five matches, with Dallas keeping three clean sheets in the same span.
🚩 FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for FC Dallas and 4.6 for San Jose Earthquakes, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 66% · Over 10.5: 41%.
How FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Dallaslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
San Jose Earthquakeslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dallas are unbeaten in four, with two wins and two draws, and have kept three clean sheets in their last five. San Jose are on a five-match unbeaten run, but four of those were draws, and they've failed to keep a clean sheet in any of them. Both teams are finding the net regularly, but San Jose's inability to shut opponents out is notable.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
The last ten meetings have produced five draws, with only two clean sheets across the last six. Scorelines of 1-1 and 2-2 are common, and neither side has dominated the fixture. Both teams have scored in eight of the last ten encounters.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
FC Dallas wins
5
Draws
2
San Jose Earthquakes wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
The model finds marginal value on the draw at 3.6, with a 29% model probability versus a 28% implied probability. There is no value on the home win at current odds, and the BTTS market is slightly overpriced for 'Yes' at 1.44. With the high draw frequency in H2H and recent form, the draw offers the most statistical edge.
Odds from William Hill. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
- ⚠️No injuries reported for either side, but late squad news could affect lineups.
- ⚠️Both teams have a high draw rate in H2H and recent form, increasing variance in the main markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Dallas 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesThe model projects a 2-1 win for FC Dallas, primarily on the strength of their home record (just two losses in fourteen) and San Jose's tendency to concede on the road despite a solid overall away record. The main risk is the high draw rate between these sides—five in the last ten H2H—making a 1-1 or 2-2 outcome plausible if neither side can establish control.
FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes: Common Questions
Who will win FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The model gives FC Dallas a 44% chance of victory, with the draw at 29% and San Jose at 27%. Dallas's strong home record and San Jose's away resilience suggest a close contest, with a narrow home win or draw most likely.
Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Yes is rated at 65% probability, as both teams have scored in all of San Jose's last five matches and Dallas have only one failed to score in their last five. Both sides average over 1.7 goals per game on their preferred home/away splits.
What are the chances of over 2.5 goals in this match?
The probability of over 2.5 goals is 62%, based on Dallas's 67% over 2.5 rate and San Jose's 53%. Both teams' attack and concession rates point to a high-scoring environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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