Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Predictions
Super League · China
Chongqing Tongliang Long
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Shanghai Shenhua
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Shanghai Shenhua Win
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua: Match Preview
Chongqing Tongliang Long return to the Longxing Football Stadium desperate to arrest a worrying slide, having taken just two points from their last five matches (DLDLL) and failing to score in three of those contests. Their home form has been middling all season, with only four wins from twelve, and their recent lack of attacking spark has left them drifting in mid-table. Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have surged up the table on the back of a potent attacking run—three wins in five, 12 goals scored, and a string of high-intensity performances that belie their ninth-place standing.
Statistically, the contrast could hardly be sharper. Shenhua's last five have seen them average 17.8 shots and 7 on target per game, while Chongqing have managed just 2.6 on target themselves. Shenhua's defensive record remains suspect (2.2 conceded per game in the same stretch), but Chongqing's blunt attack—just 0.6 goals per game over five—may not be equipped to exploit it. The visitors' second-half goal surge (eight of their last ten after the break) poses a particular threat to a Chongqing side that has faded late in games. Set pieces could offer Chongqing a route back, but Shenhua's sharper finishing and superior shot volume are likely to tell.
The model expects Shenhua's form to carry them through, projecting a 2-1 away win. The most compelling signal is the momentum gap: Shenhua's attack is peaking, while Chongqing look short of ideas and confidence. Unless the hosts can rediscover their defensive resilience or strike early, the visitors' relentless pressure should eventually decide the outcome.
How Chongqing Tongliang Long and Shanghai Shenhua Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chongqing Tongliang Longlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Shanghai Shenhualast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chongqing Tongliang Long are enduring a rough patch, winless in five and with just one goal in their last three at home—a clear sign of a side lacking confidence and ideas in attack. In stark contrast, Shanghai Shenhua have hit a purple patch, racking up three wins and 12 goals in their last five, with their only recent setback a narrow 3-2 loss to Shandong Luneng. The momentum is firmly with the visitors.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 68% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua that most previews miss.
- 1Shanghai Shenhua have scored eight of their last ten goals in the second half, indicating a strong finishing kick.
- 2Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to score in three of their last five matches, including two straight home blanks.
- 3Shenhua's last five matches have averaged 4.6 total goals, with four of those seeing at least three goals scored.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction
Shanghai Shenhua arrive with the wind at their backs, having netted 12 goals in their last five and picking up three wins in that stretch. Chongqing Tongliang Long, by contrast, are struggling to halt a slide—winless in five and with just one goal in their last three at home. The momentum gap is stark, and recent shot and attacking metrics suggest Shenhua are playing at a level above their league position. The tactical battle will likely be defined by Shenhua's dynamic attack against Chongqing's increasingly porous back line. Shenhua are averaging nearly 18 shots and 7 on target per game recently, while Chongqing's defence has managed just a single clean sheet in five and is conceding 1.4 per match. Chongqing's own attack has gone missing, failing to score in three of their last five, and their home record (4W, 5D, 3L) offers little comfort against a side in this kind of form. Set pieces may play a role, with both sides averaging over four corners per game, but Shenhua's superior conversion rate is notable. Expect Shanghai Shenhua to dictate proceedings, especially after the break—eight of their last ten goals have come in the second half. Chongqing's best hope is to keep things tight early, but the data points to Shenhua's relentless pressure eventually breaking through. A 2-1 away victory fits the recent patterns, with Shenhua's attacking depth and Chongqing's lack of cutting edge the decisive factors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Shenhua are generating 17.8 shots and 7 on target per game in their last five, dwarfing Chongqing's 10.2 and 2.6.
Match Context
- →Shanghai Shenhua have scored 12 goals in their last five, averaging 2.4 per game.
- →Chongqing Tongliang Long are winless in five (DLDLL) and have failed to score in three of those.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Shanghai Shenhua Win
Shanghai Shenhua's last five matches have produced three wins and 12 goals scored, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to win in five (DLDLL), scoring just three times. Shenhua's attacking momentum and Chongqing's current bluntness tilt the probabilities toward the away side.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Shenhua average 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last five, with 4/5 matches seeing at least three goals. Chongqing's defence has conceded 1.4 per game in this stretch, so the form signals a high-scoring contest.
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More Super League Predictions
🚩 Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 5.8 for Shanghai Shenhua, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
What History Says: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua
The head-to-head record is limited but telling: Shanghai Shenhua have never lost to Chongqing Tongliang Long, winning 2-0 away in the 2023 FA Cup and drawing 2-2 at home earlier this season. Both meetings saw Shenhua avoid defeat and score at least twice.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
1
Draws
1
Shanghai Shenhua wins
Things to Watch: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations and expected value are unavailable.
- ⚠️Small H2H sample (only two meetings) limits predictive power.
- ⚠️If Chongqing rediscover their early-season defensive solidity (season clean sheet rate 32%), the match could be tighter than recent form suggests.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–2 Shanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua's attacking momentum is the clearest signal in the data, with 12 goals in five matches and a relentless shot output. The predicted 2-1 away win is rooted in this offensive surge, though the main risk is Chongqing rediscovering their defensive organisation and grinding out a result at home, as they've done at times earlier in the campaign.
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua: Common Questions
Who will win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua?
The model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 49% chance of victory, compared to 22% for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 29% for the draw. Shenhua's recent form—three wins and 12 goals in their last five—makes them the momentum pick.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua?
There's a 58% probability that both teams will score, reflecting Shenhua's attacking power but also their defensive vulnerability (2.2 conceded per game in the last five). Chongqing's recent attacking struggles temper this, but Shenhua's open style means chances at both ends.
Can Shanghai Shenhua's attacking form continue?
Shenhua are averaging 2.4 goals and 17.8 shots per game over their last five, so the model expects their offensive momentum to carry into this fixture. The main question is whether Chongqing's defence (just one clean sheet in five) can withstand the pressure.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai Shenhua: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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