Chorley vs Buxton Predictions
National League - North · England
Chorley
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Buxton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Chorley Win
Recommended Bets: Chorley vs Buxton
Chorley vs Buxton: Match Preview
Chorley arrive at Victory Park in their best form of the campaign, riding a four-match winning streak that has lifted them to ninth, just a point off their visitors. Their recent surge has been built on consistent attacking output—nine goals in the last five matches—and a newfound resilience, with comeback wins and late goals featuring prominently. Buxton, meanwhile, have seen their early-season promise fade, slipping to three straight defeats and failing to score in any of those matches. With both sides locked in mid-table, the momentum edge is firmly with the hosts.
Statistically, the contrast is stark. Chorley are averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game over their last five, while Buxton have managed only 0.8 for and 1.6 against in the same span. Chorley's home record is robust (4W, 1D, 1L, 14 goals scored), whereas Buxton's away defence is among the league's worst, conceding 14 in six. Both teams' matches trend high for goals—over 2.5 in 73% of Chorley's and 82% of Buxton's league games—while neither keeps clean sheets with any regularity (one each in their last five).
The model expects Chorley to press their advantage early, likely taking a first-half lead as they've done in four of their last five. Buxton's travel woes and current attacking malaise make a comeback unlikely, though their H2H record suggests they can't be entirely written off. Unless Chorley's form proves unsustainable, the hosts are well placed to extend their winning run with another high-scoring performance.
How Chorley and Buxton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chorley vs Buxton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Chorleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Buxtonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Chorley are surging, having won four consecutive matches and scoring nine goals in that span, including two comeback victories at home. Buxton, in contrast, are on a three-game losing streak, failing to find the net in any of those defeats and conceding seven times. The momentum and confidence are clearly with the hosts heading into this fixture.
Chorley vs Buxton — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Over 2.5 goals in 72.73% of games this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 81.82% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Chorley vs Buxton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chorley vs Buxton that most previews miss.
- 1Chorley have scored in both halves in three of their last four matches, highlighting their sustained attacking threat.
- 2Buxton have failed to score in three straight games, their longest drought of the season.
- 3Six of the last eight H2H meetings have seen both teams score, with five producing at least three goals.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Chorley vs Buxton Prediction
Chorley enter this fixture in the midst of a remarkable surge, having strung together four consecutive wins across league and cup, including back-to-back home victories. Their attack has found rhythm, averaging 1.8 goals per game over the last five, and they have shown resilience by coming from behind and scoring in both halves. Buxton, by contrast, are mired in a three-game losing streak, failing to score in any of those defeats and conceding seven times in the process. Their away form is particularly concerning, with just one win and 14 goals conceded in six outings. The matchup tilts in Chorley's favour when contrasting recent attacking output and defensive solidity. Chorley have scored in four of their last five and kept the opposition to one goal or fewer in three of those. Buxton's attack has dried up, with only 0.8 goals per game in their last five, and their away defence has been leaky all season. Set-piece data is lacking, but both sides' low clean sheet percentages (9% each) suggest defensive lapses are likely, while the high over 2.5 goal rates point to another open contest. Discipline and corners data are unavailable, but neither side has reported key injuries. Given Chorley's momentum and Buxton's downward trajectory, the model expects the home side to control proceedings, especially in the first half where they've often struck early. While Buxton's H2H record at Victory Park is respectable, their current form and travel struggles make a turnaround improbable unless Chorley regress sharply from their recent levels.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chorley on a four-match winning streak, scoring 9 and conceding 3 in that span.
- →Buxton have lost three consecutive matches, scoring just once and conceding seven.
Match Context
- →Chorley have won four of six home games this season, netting 14 times at Victory Park.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chorley vs Buxton(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Chorley Win
Chorley are riding a four-match winning streak, scoring 9 and conceding just 3 in that run, while Buxton have lost three on the bounce and managed only one goal in their last three outings. The home side's momentum and strong record at Victory Park (4W, 1D, 1L, 14 goals scored) tip the balance despite a historically even H2H.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' matches have been high-scoring this season (Chorley over 2.5 in 73%, Buxton in 82%), and Chorley's last five have averaged 2.8 total goals. Buxton's defence has shipped 14 in 6 away games, so the over is well supported by recent trends.
Read more ↓
More National League - North Predictions
What History Says: Chorley vs Buxton
Buxton have enjoyed the better of recent head-to-heads, winning four of the last eight encounters and taking all three points on their last visit to Victory Park. However, these meetings have typically been open, with six of the last eight featuring goals for both sides and five producing at least three goals.
Chorley vs Buxton Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
2
Chorley wins
2
Draws
4
Buxton wins
Things to Watch: Chorley vs Buxton
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, corners, and cards data for both teams reduces tactical detail.
- ⚠️Head-to-head record favours Buxton (4 wins to Chorley's 2 in last 8), so historical matchup risk persists.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chorley 2–1 BuxtonChorley's four-match winning streak is the clearest signal in the data, and with Buxton's attack faltering and away defence leaking, a 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome. The strongest factor is Chorley's recent momentum and their ability to score consistently at home. The main risk is Buxton's historical H2H edge and the possibility that Chorley's run is overperforming their underlying numbers, but the current trajectories point firmly to the hosts.
Chorley vs Buxton: Common Questions
Who will win Chorley vs Buxton?
Chorley are favoured with a 48% probability of victory, compared to 22% for Buxton and a 30% chance of a draw. This is driven by Chorley's four-match winning streak and Buxton's three consecutive losses.
Will Chorley's winning streak continue?
The model gives Chorley a strong chance to extend their run, as they've won four on the bounce and scored 1.8 goals per game in their last five, while Buxton have failed to score in their last three matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, over 2.5 goals has a 59% probability according to the model, supported by both teams' high over 2.5 rates this season (Chorley 73%, Buxton 82%) and recent defensive vulnerabilities.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chorley vs Buxton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Chorley vs Buxton Resources
Chorley Predictions
All Chorley fixtures & tips
Buxton Predictions
All Buxton fixtures & tips
Chorley vs Buxton Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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Chorley — next match predictions
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Buxton — next match predictions
National League - North Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results