Club Queretaro vs Leon Predictions
Liga MX · Mexico
Club Queretaro
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Leon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.2/10Late Drama as Queretaro and Leon Share the Spoils in Lively 1-1 Draw
Club Queretaro and Leon played out an entertaining 1-1 draw at Estadio La Corregidora, with both sides trading second-half goals in a match that ebbed and flowed. Leon, dictating play with 61% possession, struck first through D. Cambindo in the 54th minute, but Queretaro responded swiftly, leveling the score just six minutes later via A. Ávila. Despite a flurry of chances and a combined 33 shots, neither side could find a decisive winner. Queretaro, set up in a 4-2-3-1, showed attacking intent, firing 19 shots and earning 8 corners, but were often forced to play on the counter against Leon's midfield dominance. Leon, meanwhile, looked the more composed side in possession and produced 7 shots on target, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them all three points. The match was punctuated by a series of yellow cards—four for Queretaro and three for Leon—reflecting the competitive edge throughout.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
54' — Goal
D. Cambindo puts Leon ahead after a spell of sustained pressure.
60' — Goal
A. Ávila levels for Queretaro, finishing a swift counter-attack.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of seven yellow cards are shown, reflecting the match's intensity.
Club Queretaro
Queretaro approached the match with energy and directness, creating more overall shots (19) but struggling to convert their opportunities, with only 4 on target. Their defensive shape was tested by Leon's ball retention, but they showed resilience, especially after falling behind. The midfield pairing of Carlo Adriano and S. Homenchenko worked tirelessly to disrupt Leon's rhythm, while A. Ávila's equalizer showcased their ability to strike quickly on the break. However, Queretaro's discipline was questionable, picking up four yellow cards, and their inability to capitalize on set pieces—despite 8 corners—meant they had to settle for a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Leon
Leon controlled the tempo for much of the contest, boasting 61% possession and completing more passes in midfield. Their 7 shots on target from 14 attempts reflected a more clinical approach, and D. Cambindo's opener was the result of sustained pressure early in the second half. The midfield quartet of J. Cortizo, J. Alvarado, F. Beltrán, and D. Arcila provided width and creativity, but Leon struggled to break down Queretaro's defense after conceding the equalizer. Defensively, Leon were solid but occasionally vulnerable on the counter, conceding 8 corners and allowing Queretaro 19 shots. Their single corner won highlights a lack of attacking width at times.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Queretaro lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on compactness and quick transitions, which allowed them to create chances despite limited possession. Their reliance on set pieces was evident, as they forced 8 corners and looked to capitalize on Leon's occasional lapses in defensive organization. Leon's 4-1-4-1 formation prioritized midfield control, with R. Echeverría anchoring and the advanced midfielders supporting D. Cambindo. Leon's patient build-up play resulted in more controlled possession and a higher percentage of shots on target, but their lack of width and penetration in the final third limited their ability to turn dominance into goals. Substitutions, while not detailed, likely aimed to inject fresh legs and tactical tweaks, but neither side could break the deadlock after the hour mark. The match's rhythm was frequently interrupted by fouls and bookings, which prevented either team from building sustained momentum late on.
Turning Point
A. Ávila's equalizer in the 60th minute, which shifted momentum back to Queretaro and halted Leon's push for a second goal.
Man of the Match
A. Ávila
Scored the vital equalizer and was a constant threat on the counter for Queretaro.
Club Queretaro vs Leon: Match Preview
Queretaro enter this fixture in 5th place, buoyed by back-to-back away wins and a season record of four wins from seven. Their home form, however, is less convincing, with just one win and two losses at Estadio La Corregidora, conceding five in three home games. Leon sit 12th, three points back, and come off a loss at Pumas, but their season-long numbers (1.29 goals scored and conceded per game) suggest a side that neither dominates nor collapses away from home.
The statistical shape of this match leans towards a low-scoring contest. Queretaro's matches average 2.43 total goals while Leon's average 2.57, and both sides have under 2.5 goals in over 40% of their fixtures. Shot volumes are modest (Queretaro 11.2, Leon 13.2 per match last five), and both teams have posted two clean sheets in their last five. Discipline could play a role, with Queretaro averaging 2.8 yellows per match recently and Leon at 2.2, but neither side is at risk of suspension through accumulation.
Given the near-parity in scoring rates, defensive records, and the absence of major injuries, the model projects a balanced encounter. The likeliest outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the modal scoreline and under 2.5 goals slightly favoured. Margins are slim, and the first goal—if it comes—may not arrive before the half-hour mark, with a 44% probability of a goalless first half.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Club Queretaro vs Leon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Club Queretaro vs Leon that most previews miss.
- 1Queretaro's home matches average just 1.33 goals for and 1.67 against, with only one home win in three.
- 2Leon have failed to score in only one of their last five but have not kept an away clean sheet this season.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, away wins have occurred five times, with the 1-1 draw appearing twice.
Who do you think wins: Club Queretaro vs Leon?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Club Queretaro vs Leon(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average just over 1 goal scored and conceded per game this season (Queretaro 1.43 GF, 1.00 GA; Leon 1.29 GF, 1.29 GA), while neither side has a strong home or away bias. The draw is the modal outcome in the distribution and 1-1 fits the low-scoring, evenly matched profile.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Model probability for under 2.5 goals is 0.56, above the typical market baseline for Liga MX. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in their last five and have under 2.5 in 57% (Queretaro) and 43% (Leon) of games, with recent matches trending tighter.
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More Liga MX Predictions
The Case For This Club Queretaro vs Leon Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly contested affair between two sides with nearly identical scoring and concession rates. Queretaro's home output (1.33 goals for, 1.67 against per home game) and Leon's away record (1.00 for, 1.50 against) both point to a balanced matchup, with neither attack nor defence showing a decisive edge. The modal outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Queretaro average 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game in Liga MX this season.
- →Leon average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game, with a negative away goal difference.
- →Both teams have two clean sheets and two BTTS results in their last five matches.
🚩 Club Queretaro vs Leon Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Club Queretaro and 3.8 for Leon, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Club Queretaro and Leon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Club Queretaro vs Leon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Club Queretarolast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Leonlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Queretaro have found momentum with consecutive away wins, but their home form remains patchy with two losses from three. Leon's recent run is mixed, alternating wins and losses, and their away record (one win, one draw, two losses) reflects that inconsistency. Both sides have posted two clean sheets in their last five, indicating defensive solidity but not dominance.
Club Queretaro vs Leon — Last 9 Matches
What History Says: Club Queretaro vs Leon
Leon have the upper hand historically, winning five of the last ten meetings, but Queretaro won the most recent clash 2-0 at home. Draws have featured three times, including two 1-1 results, and away wins are not uncommon in this fixture. No single pattern dominates, underlining the match's balanced outlook.
Club Queretaro vs Leon Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Club Queretaro wins
4
Draws
4
Leon wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Club Queretaro vs Leon
With no odds available, the model cannot identify explicit value edges. However, the probabilities suggest that the draw and under 2.5 goals would be the most likely sources of value if standard market prices apply, given the statistical profile and recent trends.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Club Queretaro vs Leon
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Recent form sample is small (last five matches) and could understate volatility.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Club Queretaro 1–1 LeonThe model settles on a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long averages of just over one goal scored and conceded per match, and the lack of a clear home or away advantage. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either side's attack finds early momentum against defences that can be breached, but the distribution of results points to a stalemate.
Club Queretaro vs Leon: Common Questions
Who will win Club Queretaro vs Leon?
The model gives Queretaro a 33% chance to win, Leon a 31% chance, and a draw the highest at 36%. Both teams have nearly identical scoring and concession rates, so the draw is the statistical favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Queretaro vs Leon?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with neither side showing a consistent BTTS trend (two of last five for each). The model slightly favours 'no' at 52%.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Club Queretaro vs Leon?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is modelled at 56% probability. Both sides average around 2.5 total goals per game, and recent matches have trended lower-scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Club Queretaro vs Leon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.