Coritiba vs Gremio Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Coritiba
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Gremio
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+11% edge)
Recommended Bets: Coritiba vs Gremio
Coritiba vs Gremio: Match Preview
Coritiba enter this fixture 12th in Serie A, winless in their last five (LDLLD) and conceding heavily—2.8 goals per game over that stretch. Gremio, 18th and in the relegation zone, are also out of form (LDDDL) and have yet to win away this campaign (0W 5D 10L), scoring just nine times on the road all season. With both teams desperate for points—Coritiba to avoid slipping into the bottom third, Gremio to escape relegation—the pressure is tangible.
The statistical matchup tilts toward a low-scoring, attritional contest. Coritiba's home games average 2.67 goals (20 scored, 20 conceded in 15), while Gremio's away matches are even tighter at 2.13 goals per game (9 for, 23 against in 15). Both sides have struggled to create quality chances recently—Coritiba averaging just 2.8 shots on target per game in their last five, Gremio 4.2—and both keepers have been busy. Disciplinary trends point to a spiky encounter, with the sides combining for 5.2 yellow cards per game over their last five.
The model expects a cagey, error-prone match, with neither side likely to dominate. Coritiba's slight edge comes from home advantage and Gremio's chronic away issues, but both teams' inability to keep clean sheets or sustain attacking pressure makes a draw the statistical favourite. A 1-1 scoreline is most likely, with the draw and under 2.5 goals offering the clearest value in the market.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Coritiba vs Gremio Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Coritiba vs Gremio that most previews miss.
- 1Gremio are the only side in Serie A without an away win this season (0W 5D 10L).
- 2Coritiba have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding 14 goals in that span.
- 3The last three head-to-heads have all finished under 2.5 goals, with Gremio winning each by a single goal margin.
Who do you think wins: Coritiba vs Gremio?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Coritiba vs Gremio(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
Both sides have shown a lack of cutting edge and defensive frailty in recent weeks, with Coritiba averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded in their last five, and Gremio winless away all season (0W 5D 10L, 9 scored, 23 conceded). The model gives a 34% draw probability versus bookmaker implied 31%, offering a 10% edge.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.8
Season-long rates point to a lower goal environment: Coritiba's home games average 2.67 goals, Gremio's away just 2.13, and both teams have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 combined. Model probability for under 2.5 is 56%.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Coritiba vs Gremio Prediction
Statistically, this is a clash between two sides with negative goal differences and little momentum, but Coritiba's home record and Gremio's away woes set the tone for a tight, low-scoring contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: Gremio have won 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Defence
- →Coritiba's last five: 0.8 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game.
Match Context
- →Gremio have not won away all season (0W 5D 10L, 9 GF, 23 GA).
🚩 Coritiba vs Gremio Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Coritiba and 4.4 for Gremio, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Coritiba and Gremio Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Coritiba vs Gremio Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Coritibalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Gremiolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Coritiba are struggling for momentum, picking up just two points from their last five matches and conceding nearly three goals per game in that stretch. Gremio have also failed to win in their last five (LDDDL) and remain the only side without an away victory this season, highlighting a lack of confidence and end product on the road.
Coritiba vs Gremio — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Coritiba vs Gremio
Gremio have dominated the head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten meetings, including a 1-0 home win earlier this season. However, Coritiba's only recent success came at home in 2016, and the last three encounters have all finished with under 2.5 goals.
Coritiba vs Gremio Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Coritiba wins
2
Draws
7
Gremio wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Coritiba vs Gremio
The model finds the draw at 3.25 to be the strongest value, with a 34% probability versus 31% implied by the odds. There is also mild value on under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no', but the draw stands out given both teams' recent form and Gremio's inability to win away.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Coritiba vs Gremio
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is poor and volatile, increasing draw likelihood but also unpredictability.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Head-to-head dominance by Gremio is somewhat offset by their extreme away struggles this season.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Coritiba 1–1 GremioThe model projects a 1-1 draw, underpinned by Gremio's winless away record (0W 5D 10L) and Coritiba's leaky defence (2.8 conceded per game in last five). The biggest risk to this scenario is a defensive collapse from either side, but with both teams' attacks underperforming, a low-scoring stalemate is the most probable outcome.
Coritiba vs Gremio: Common Questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Gremio?
The model gives Coritiba a 39% chance to win, Gremio 27%, and the draw 34%. With both teams in poor form and Gremio winless away all season, a draw is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Gremio?
The probability for both teams to score is 48%, slightly below even money. Both sides have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 combined, and recent head-to-heads have been low scoring.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Coritiba vs Gremio?
Yes, the model estimates a 56% probability for under 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging fewer than 1.25 goals scored per game this season. Recent head-to-heads also support a low goal count.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Coritiba vs Gremio: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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