Coritiba vs Santos Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Coritiba
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Santos
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+9% edge)
Recommended Bets: Coritiba vs Santos
Coritiba vs Santos: Match Preview
Coritiba approach this fixture on the back of a patchy run, with just one win in their last five and three matches without scoring. Their home form is almost perfectly balanced (6W, 5D, 6L), and they sit 12th, effectively clear of relegation but out of continental contention. Santos, three places and five points better off, are also in middling form (LDDWL) but have been more productive on their travels, scoring 27 and conceding 28 in 17 away games.
The statistical shape of this match is defined by defensive vulnerability on both sides. Santos matches average nearly three goals (over 2.5 in 64.7%), and their attack has produced 5.8 shots on target per game in the last five. Coritiba's defence gives up 1.5 goals per game on the season, but their attack has cooled recently, averaging just 0.6 goals per match in the last five despite decent shot output. Both teams are prone to open second halves, and the corners data (over 10 per game combined) suggests sustained attacking phases.
Given these rates, the model expects a relatively open contest with Santos' away scoring edge likely to prove decisive. The most probable outcomes are 1-2 or 1-1, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals. While Coritiba's recent form tempers confidence in their attack, the overall goal environment and both teams' season-long defensive records point to a match with multiple scoring chances.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Coritiba vs Santos Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Coritiba vs Santos that most previews miss.
- 1Santos' away matches average 3.24 total goals per game (27 scored, 28 conceded in 17), the highest among the top half of the table.
- 2Coritiba have failed to score in three of their last five, but their home xG/shot volume remains above league average (12.8 shots, 3.6 on target per match).
- 3Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have produced at least two goals, with only two draws in that span.
Who do you think wins: Coritiba vs Santos?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Coritiba vs Santos(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.73
Both sides average above 1.4 goals conceded per game and Santos matches clear the 2.5 line in 64.7% of cases this season; model probability for over 2.5 is 61% versus 57.8% implied by odds.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 3.51
Draw probability is modelled at 29% with both teams showing high draw rates (Coritiba 9/34, Santos 11/34); odds slightly underestimate the stalemate risk.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Coritiba vs Santos Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-variance contest between two mid-table sides with leaky defences and moderate attacking output. Santos travel with a marginally stronger away record (27 scored, 28 conceded in 17 away) and a higher season goal involvement, while Coritiba's home record is almost neutral (22 for, 21 against in 17). Both teams have kept just one clean sheet in their last five, and the over 2.5 goal rate is above league average for both. The key matchup is Santos' attack (1.47 goals per game, 5.8 shots on target last five) against a Coritiba defence conceding 1.5 per game on the season and 0.8 in recent matches, but with a worrying 20.6% clean sheet rate. Coritiba's own attack has faltered recently (0.6 goals per game last five, three blanks), but their shot volume remains healthy (12.8 per match). Both sides' matches trend towards open second halves, and the corners profile (5.4 for Coritiba, 5.6 for Santos per last five) points to sustained attacking phases. The model expects Santos' away offensive rate to tilt the balance, but the distribution is wide: most likely outcomes are 1-2, 1-1, or 0-2, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals. A draw is underpriced by the market, but the overall edge is with goals, given the season-long defensive frailty and shot data.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Coritiba have failed to score in three of their last five but still average 12.8 shots and 3.6 on target per match in that span.
Defence
- →Santos average 1.47 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game this season, with 64.7% of their matches going over 2.5 goals.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head: Santos have won six of the last ten meetings, including the last two in Curitiba (2-0 and 2-1).
🚩 Coritiba vs Santos Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Coritiba and 4.7 for Santos, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
How Coritiba and Santos Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Coritiba vs Santos Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Coritibalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Santoslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Coritiba have lost three of their last five, scoring just twice in that span and failing to find the net in three matches. Santos are winless in their last three but have shown more attacking consistency, with only one blank in their last five and an average of 1.0 goals scored per match.
Coritiba vs Santos — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
What History Says: Coritiba vs Santos
Santos have a clear edge in the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten meetings and both of the last two at Coritiba. Only two of the last ten have ended in a draw, and most matches have seen at least two goals.
Coritiba vs Santos Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Coritiba wins
2
Draws
6
Santos wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Coritiba vs Santos
The model finds modest value on the draw at 3.4 (8.6% edge) and a slight edge on over 2.5 goals at 1.73, with the model's 61% probability above the implied 57.8%. Both teams to score 'no' is also slightly overpriced at 2.2, but the main statistical edge is in the goal markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Coritiba vs Santos
- ⚠️Coritiba's recent scoring drought (three blanks in last five) introduces volatility to both BTTS and over markets.
- ⚠️Both teams' clean sheet rates are low, but variance in finishing (Santos' 5.8 shots on target per game, Coritiba's 3.6) could swing the goal tally.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but late lineup changes could affect attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Coritiba 1–2 SantosThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Santos, driven primarily by their superior away scoring rate (1.59 goals per away game) and Coritiba's recent struggles in front of goal. The main risk to this forecast is Coritiba's shot volume translating into a higher-than-expected home output or a stalemate if Santos' finishing falters.
Coritiba vs Santos: Common Questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Santos?
Santos are favoured with a 46% win probability, compared to 25% for Coritiba and 29% for the draw. This reflects Santos' stronger away scoring record and dominance in recent head-to-heads.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Coritiba vs Santos?
The model gives a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals, based on both teams' high concession rates and Santos' 64.7% over 2.5 season record.
Are both teams likely to score in Coritiba vs Santos?
Both teams to score is rated at 58%, with Santos matches seeing BTTS in four of their last five and Coritiba's defence keeping just one clean sheet in that span.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Coritiba vs Santos: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.