Criciuma vs Ceara Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Criciuma
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 0
Ceara
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10Late Ceara Equalizer Denies Criciuma in Possession-Dominated Draw
Criciuma and Ceara played out a tense 1-1 draw in Serie B action, with both sides settling for a point after a dramatic late equalizer. Criciuma controlled the tempo for much of the match, boasting 60% possession and registering 11 shots, 5 of which tested the goalkeeper. Their early dominance was rewarded with a 25th-minute opener, putting them in the driving seat for the majority of the contest. However, Ceara, despite seeing less of the ball and managing only 7 shots (2 on target), showed resilience and tactical discipline. Their persistence paid off in the 80th minute, as they found the back of the net to level the score. Both teams finished with two corners apiece and a similar foul count, but neither side could find the decisive goal in the closing stages, leaving the spoils shared.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
25' — Goal
Criciuma open the scoring, capitalizing on their early dominance.
80' — Goal
Ceara equalize late, punishing Criciuma for not extending their lead.
Criciuma
Criciuma asserted themselves with confident possession play, dictating the rhythm and creating more clear-cut opportunities. Their 60% possession and 11 shots reflected a proactive approach, particularly in the first half. The hosts found an early breakthrough in the 25th minute, but struggled to convert their dominance into a second goal as Ceara tightened up defensively. Despite a strong start and a solid defensive display, Criciuma's inability to kill off the game proved costly. The lack of cutting edge in the final third and a late lapse allowed Ceara to snatch a point, leaving Criciuma with a sense of missed opportunity.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Ceara
Ceara were forced to play on the back foot for much of the contest, conceding possession and territory. Despite this, they remained compact and organized, limiting Criciuma's clear chances and matching their hosts with two corners and a similar foul tally. Ceara's attacking threat was limited, with only 2 shots on target from 7 attempts, but their perseverance was rewarded with a crucial equalizer in the 80th minute. The visitors' ability to absorb pressure and capitalize on a late opportunity showcased their mental toughness. While not the most fluid performance, Ceara's resilience earned them a valuable away point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Criciuma's approach was built around possession, seeking to control the midfield and patiently probe for openings. Their ability to retain the ball and circulate possession led to a higher shot count and territorial advantage, but a lack of ruthlessness in front of goal proved costly. Ceara, meanwhile, set up to frustrate, defending in numbers and looking to break quickly when opportunities arose. Both teams maintained discipline, with no yellow or red cards issued, and neither side was able to exploit set pieces, as corners were limited and evenly matched. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half helped Ceara push forward, culminating in their late equalizer.
Turning Point
Ceara's 80th-minute equalizer shifted the momentum, denying Criciuma a deserved win and ensuring a share of the spoils.
Man of the Match
Ceara Goal Scorer (80')
Delivered a decisive equalizer under pressure, salvaging a point for his team.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Criciuma vs Ceara Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Criciuma vs Ceara?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Criciuma vs Ceara(4)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Criciuma Win
Criciuma are unbeaten at home this season (3W, 2D), come in with strong form (WWDDD), and face a Ceara side with only 1 away win and poor recent results (LLWLL).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have low over 2.5 goal rates (Criciuma 25%, Ceara 36.4%), and recent matches show a trend toward tight, low-scoring games.
BTTS: No
Criciuma have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5, Ceara have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, and the match is expected to be cagey.
Corners: Over 8.5
Both teams average high corners per game in recent matches (Criciuma 8.0, Ceara 4.6), supporting a high total corners outcome.
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Criciuma vs Ceara Prediction
Criciuma host Ceara in a clash where the home side's strong form and defensive solidity give them a clear edge. Criciuma are unbeaten at home and have conceded just three goals in five home matches, while Ceara arrive on the back of two straight defeats and have struggled for consistency, especially away from home. Expect a tight contest, with Criciuma likely to control proceedings and a low-scoring outcome favored.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Criciuma unbeaten at home this season (3W, 2D, 7:3 GF:GA)
- →Criciuma's recent form: WWDDD; Ceara's: LLWLL
Defence
- →Criciuma average 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in last 5
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side
Match Context
- →Ceara have just 1 win in 5 away matches and are on a L2 streak
- →Both teams have low over 2.5 goal percentages
🚩 Criciuma vs Ceara Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Criciuma and 3.8 for Ceara, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 58% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How Criciuma and Ceara Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Criciuma vs Ceara Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Criciumalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cearalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Criciuma are in strong form, unbeaten in their last five matches (WWDDD) and coming off two consecutive wins, including a solid 1-0 home victory over Londrina. In contrast, Ceara have lost four of their last five (LLWLL), including back-to-back defeats and a concerning away record, suggesting a side low on confidence.
Criciuma vs Ceara — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Criciuma vs Ceara
The head-to-head record favors Ceara, who have won five of the last ten meetings and have been particularly successful away at Criciuma. However, the majority of these matches are several years old, and Criciuma's current home form suggests a shift in the balance.
Criciuma vs Ceara Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Criciuma wins
3
Draws
5
Ceara wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Criciuma vs Ceara
With no bookmaker odds provided, it's not possible to identify clear value edges. However, the model's strong lean toward Criciuma and under 2.5 goals suggests these would be the markets to watch for value if odds become available.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Criciuma vs Ceara
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated
- ⚠️Lineups for this fixture are not yet released
- ⚠️Ceara's H2H record is strong, but most matches are dated and may not reflect current squads
- ⚠️Serie B is a low-scoring league, but variance in goal timing is possible
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Criciuma vs Ceara: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.