Ceara vs Criciuma Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Ceara
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Criciuma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Ceara vs Criciuma
Ceara vs Criciuma: Match Preview
Ceará enter this fixture 15th in Serie B, with a modest home record and a recent run of five games unbeaten (DWDLW), but defensive issues remain—39 goals conceded in 30 matches is among the highest in the league's top half. Criciúma, sitting 5th, have stumbled recently with three losses in their last five, but remain in the promotion mix and boast a much stronger defensive record overall.
Statistically, this is a clash of middling attacks and disciplined defences. Ceará average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while Criciúma's figures are 1.03 for and just 0.9 against. Ceará's matches go over 2.5 goals 40% of the time, but Criciúma's only 23%. Notably, Ceará have seen both teams score in all of their last five, while Criciúma have failed to score in three of their last five, highlighting a recent attacking slump despite high shot and possession numbers.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects a low-scoring, tightly matched contest. The most likely outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the single likeliest scoreline, reflecting both sides' season-long goal production and the pattern of recent head-to-heads. Margins are slim: set pieces and defensive errors could easily tip the balance, but neither side profiles as likely to run away with it.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ceara vs Criciuma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ceara vs Criciuma that most previews miss.
- 1Criciúma have kept clean sheets in 43% of their league matches, but have conceded in five of their last six away.
- 2Ceará have scored exactly two goals in three of their last five, but have not kept a clean sheet in any of those games.
- 3The last three meetings between these sides in Serie B have all finished with under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Ceara vs Criciuma?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ceara vs Criciuma(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams average well under 2.5 goals per game this season (Ceará 2.4, Criciúma 1.93), with only 40% and 23% of their matches respectively going over 2.5. The model gives a 66% probability to under 2.5 goals.
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Correct Score: 1–1
This is the most frequent scoreline in the recent H2H (including the reverse fixture this season) and aligns with both teams' season-long scoring/conceding rates.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Ceara vs Criciuma Prediction
Ceará host Criciúma in a fixture shaped by low scoring rates and evenly matched underlying numbers. Ceará have found the net in all of their last five, but defensive lapses persist, while Criciúma's away record is solid but not spectacular. Both sides' season averages point to a contest likely to be decided by fine margins.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Only one of Criciúma's last five matches saw both teams score; Ceará have seen BTTS in all of their last five.
Defence
- →Ceará average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game; Criciúma average 1.03 scored and 0.9 conceded.
Match Context
- →Ceará's home record: 7 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses (19:17 goal difference); Criciúma's away record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses (13:17).
🚩 Ceara vs Criciuma Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Ceara and 7 for Criciuma, for an expected total of 12.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (77%). Over 8.5: 86% · Over 10.5: 67%.
How Ceara and Criciuma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ceara vs Criciuma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cearalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Criciumalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ceará have stabilised with two wins and two draws in their last five, scoring in every match but conceding regularly. Criciúma's form is more erratic, with three defeats and two wins in the same span, including a 3-0 home win last time out but also two matches where they failed to score.
Ceara vs Criciuma — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 62% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Ceara vs Criciuma
Ceará have a strong recent home record against Criciúma, winning the last two such fixtures. The last three meetings have all finished with one or both teams failing to score more than once, underlining the low-scoring trend in this matchup.
Ceara vs Criciuma Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Ceara wins
3
Draws
2
Criciuma wins
Things to Watch: Ceara vs Criciuma
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value angles cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Recent form for both teams is mixed, with small-sample volatility in last five matches.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late changes could affect attacking or defensive balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ceara 1–1 CriciumaThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long scoring rates (Ceará 1.1, Criciúma 1.03 per game) and the recurring pattern of low-scoring head-to-heads. The biggest risk to this forecast is Ceará's recent defensive frailty, which could allow Criciúma to edge it if their attack finds form.
Ceara vs Criciuma: Common Questions
Who will win Ceara vs Criciuma?
The model gives Ceará a 35% chance to win, the draw a 37% probability, and Criciúma a 28% chance. With both teams' scoring rates and recent form, a draw is marginally the most likely result.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Ceara vs Criciuma?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 66% probability, as both teams' season averages are well below the 2.5 threshold and only 23% of Criciúma's matches go over.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Criciuma?
The model estimates a 48% chance of both teams scoring. Ceará's recent matches have all seen BTTS, but Criciúma have failed to score in three of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ceara vs Criciuma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results