Criciuma vs Londrina Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Criciuma
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Londrina
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Criciuma Win
Match Result
6.8/10Criciúma Edge Londrina with Early Strike in Tight Serie B Contest
Criciúma seized an early advantage at Estádio Heriberto Hülse and held firm to claim a 1-0 victory over Londrina in this closely fought Serie B encounter. The hosts struck in the 5th minute and, despite dominating possession with 60% and firing 13 shots (4 on target), were unable to add to their tally as Londrina’s defense stiffened. Londrina, meanwhile, struggled to assert themselves, managing just 2 shots on target from 9 attempts and rarely troubling Pedro in the Criciúma goal. The match was a tactical battle, with Criciúma’s 3-4-2-1 system controlling midfield and dictating tempo, while Londrina’s 4-3-1-2 formation looked to exploit quick transitions. Both sides were disciplined defensively, and although tempers flared with four yellow cards shown, neither team saw red. Ultimately, Criciúma’s early goal proved decisive as they managed the game effectively to secure all three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
5' — Goal
Waguininho puts Criciúma ahead with a well-taken early strike.
22' — Yellow Card
Criciúma’s Marcelo Hermes cautioned for a tactical foul.
38' — Yellow Card
Londrina’s Thalis Cantanhede booked for dissent.
54' — Yellow Card
Londrina’s Gabriel Lacerda shown yellow for a late challenge.
68' — Yellow Card
Criciúma’s Guilherme Lobo receives a yellow for a foul in midfield.
Criciuma
Criciúma started brightly, capitalizing on their early momentum to grab a 5th-minute lead. They controlled proceedings with 60% possession and created more chances, registering 13 shots and winning 8 corners. The midfield trio, supported by the wingbacks, dictated the pace and limited Londrina’s attacking opportunities. Defensively, Criciúma remained organized, conceding just 2 shots on target and rarely looking troubled after their opener. Despite their dominance, Criciúma struggled to convert further chances, lacking a clinical edge in front of goal. Their game management, however, was commendable, as they absorbed late pressure and saw out the win with composure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Londrina
Londrina struggled to impose themselves against a well-drilled Criciúma side, holding just 40% possession and managing only 2 shots on target. Their 4-3-1-2 formation was unable to disrupt Criciúma’s midfield dominance, and their attacking duo found little space to operate. Defensively, Londrina improved after conceding early, limiting further damage and showing resilience under pressure. While their defensive adjustments kept them in the contest, Londrina’s lack of creativity and cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them. Their best moments came from set pieces, but they failed to capitalize, and their late push for an equalizer fizzled out.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Criciúma’s 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield, with the wingbacks providing width and supporting both defensive and attacking phases. Their shape enabled them to control possession and force Londrina to chase the game. The double pivot in midfield shielded the back three effectively, while the two advanced midfielders linked well with Waguininho up front. Londrina’s 4-3-1-2 was set up to counter quickly, but they struggled to break Criciúma’s lines and were often pinned back. After conceding, Londrina tightened up defensively, relying on their central defenders and goalkeeper to keep the deficit to one. Despite tactical tweaks and late substitutions, they failed to generate sustained attacking pressure.
Turning Point
Waguininho’s 5th-minute goal gave Criciúma the early initiative and allowed them to dictate the match on their terms.
Man of the Match
Waguininho
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with energy and purpose throughout.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Criciuma vs Londrina Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Criciuma vs Londrina?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Criciuma vs Londrina(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Criciuma Win
Criciuma are unbeaten at home this season and face a Londrina side with four losses in their last five, poor away defensive numbers, and a historically poor record in this fixture.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Criciuma's matches trend under (27% over 2.5), and Londrina have failed to score in three of their last five; despite some high-scoring away games for Londrina, the matchup suggests a tighter contest.
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Corners: Over 8.5
Both teams average high corner counts in recent matches (Criciuma 6.8, Londrina 5.2), and the predicted total is over 11.
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Criciuma vs Londrina Prediction
Criciuma enter this fixture in solid form, unbeaten in five and boasting a strong home record, while Londrina are struggling near the bottom of the table with four losses in their last five and a leaky defense. Criciuma's defensive solidity and home advantage contrast sharply with Londrina's away struggles, suggesting the hosts are well positioned for a result. While Londrina occasionally show attacking threat, their inconsistency and poor head-to-head record make an upset unlikely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Criciuma are unbeaten at home this season (W2 D2)
- →Criciuma have dominated the head-to-head (5 wins, 4 draws in last 10)
Attack
- →Criciuma's matches are often low-scoring (27% over 2.5), while Londrina's are higher scoring (80% over 2.5)
Defence
- →Londrina have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded 11 in 6 away games
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side
Match Context
- →Criciuma's last 5: WDDDD; Londrina's last 5: LWLLL
🚩 Criciuma vs Londrina Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Criciuma and 4.2 for Londrina, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Criciuma and Londrina Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Criciuma vs Londrina Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Criciumalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Londrinalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Criciuma are unbeaten in their last five matches (W1 D4), showing consistency and resilience, with a recent away win at Avai and several hard-fought draws. Londrina, in contrast, have lost four of their last five, conceding heavily on the road and struggling to find attacking consistency, though they did manage a 4-1 win at Ponte Preta.
Criciuma vs Londrina — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Criciuma vs Londrina
The head-to-head record is heavily in Criciuma's favor, especially at home where they have won four of the last five meetings. Most recent encounters have been tight, with several 1-0 or 2-0 wins for Criciuma and a pattern of low-scoring games.
Criciuma vs Londrina Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Criciuma wins
4
Draws
1
Londrina wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Criciuma vs Londrina
With no bookmaker odds provided, value assessment is limited. However, the model strongly favors Criciuma and the under 2.5 goals market, given both teams' recent trends and head-to-head history. If odds are available above 1.85 for Criciuma or under 2.5 goals, these would likely represent value based on model probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Criciuma vs Londrina
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; late changes could affect predictions
- ⚠️Londrina have shown occasional attacking bursts (e.g. 4-1 win at Ponte Preta), so defensive lapses from Criciuma could alter the match dynamic
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Criciuma vs Londrina: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.