Londrina vs Criciuma Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Londrina
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Criciuma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7/10Criciúma Strike Twice After the Break to Down 10-Man Londrina
Criciúma secured a vital 2-0 away victory over Londrina at the Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias, capitalizing on a strong second-half performance and a crucial numerical advantage. After a tightly contested first half, the visitors broke the deadlock just after the interval, with their pressure mounting as Londrina were reduced to 10 men. Goals in the 49th and 52nd minutes sealed the points for Criciúma, who managed the game well thereafter. Londrina, despite matching Criciúma for much of the first half and registering 14 shots (4 on target), struggled to break down the visitors' defense, particularly after going a man down. Criciúma, meanwhile, edged possession (52%) and made their chances count, showing clinical finishing and composure to see out the result. The win keeps Criciúma's promotion hopes alive, while Londrina are left to rue missed opportunities and disciplinary lapses.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
49' — Goal
Criciúma open the scoring, capitalizing on their early second-half momentum.
52' — Goal
Criciúma double their lead just three minutes later, taking firm control.
Second Half' — Red Card
Londrina reduced to 10 men, compounding their challenge.
Londrina
Londrina started brightly, pressing high and creating several opportunities, but lacked a cutting edge in the final third. Their 4-1-4-1 setup provided midfield solidity, but after conceding early in the second half and receiving a red card, they struggled to regain momentum. Despite 14 shots and 6 corners, they were unable to breach Criciúma's defense, and their discipline let them down at a crucial juncture.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Criciuma
Criciúma executed their 4-3-3 formation effectively, controlling possession (52%) and showing patience before breaking through early in the second half. Their midfield trio dictated the tempo, and the front line capitalized on their chances with two quick goals. Defensively, Criciúma absorbed pressure well, especially after gaining a numerical advantage, and limited Londrina to just four shots on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Londrina lined up in a 4-1-4-1, aiming for midfield solidity and quick transitions, but struggled to create clear chances against Criciúma's compact 4-3-3. The visitors used their midfield trio to control possession and gradually wear down Londrina's shape. After halftime, Criciúma increased their tempo and pressed higher, leading to two quick goals. The red card forced Londrina to become more defensive, and Criciúma adjusted by consolidating their midfield and managing possession, preventing any late comeback.
Turning Point
The red card to Londrina early in the second half, coming just after Criciúma's opening goal, shifted the momentum decisively in favor of the visitors.
Man of the Match
Fellipe Mateus
Controlled the midfield, set the tempo, and was key to both Criciúma goals.
Londrina vs Criciuma: Match Preview
Londrina enter this match sitting 18th and desperate for points, having won two of their last five but losing most recently at home to Fortaleza EC. Their home form is erratic, with a heavy 6-0 win over Ponte Preta standing out amid otherwise modest scoring. Criciuma, in contrast, are in the playoff hunt but arrive on a three-match losing streak, failing to score in three of their last five and conceding eight in that span.
The statistical matchup is defined by Londrina’s relatively high shot volume at home (18.2 per game last five) against Criciuma’s away defence, which concedes 1.21 goals per match. Criciuma’s attack away from home is blunt, averaging just 0.93 goals per game, and their recent output (0.6 goals per game last five) is even lower. Both sides show a tendency for low-scoring matches: Criciuma’s season over 2.5 rate is only 21%, and their last five have produced just one BTTS result. Set-piece numbers suggest a physical contest, with both teams averaging over 7 corners and 15 fouls per game.
Given these rates and the head-to-head trend towards draws and low totals, the model expects a cagey encounter with scoring chances at a premium. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, with under 2.5 goals the most statistically supported market. Both teams’ recent volatility is noted, but the underlying season-long rates point towards a tight, low-event contest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Londrina vs Criciuma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Londrina vs Criciuma that most previews miss.
- 1Criciuma’s matches have finished under 2.5 goals in 23 of 29 games (79%) this season.
- 2Londrina’s home matches average 2.73 total goals, but only two of 15 have seen both teams score in both halves.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, five have ended in draws and only one saw more than three goals.
Who do you think wins: Londrina vs Criciuma?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Londrina vs Criciuma(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average just over a goal per game (Londrina 1.34, Criciuma 0.97), while neither defence is dominant; a low-scoring draw is the modal outcome in the Poisson model.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Criciuma matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 79% of their games, and Londrina’s recent attacking spike looks anomalous against their season-long rate.
Read more ↓
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Londrina vs Criciuma Prediction
This fixture pits relegation-threatened Londrina, 18th in the table, against a Criciuma side holding 6th but on a three-match losing run. Londrina have shown flashes of attacking potency at home, notably the 6-0 demolition of Ponte Preta, but their overall home record (W4 D5 L6) and 1.34 goals scored per game reflect inconsistency. Criciuma, despite a much stronger season overall, have struggled badly in recent weeks, failing to score in three of their last five and conceding two or more in four of those matches. Statistically, this match projects as a low-to-moderate scoring contest. Criciuma’s season-long away attack averages just 0.93 goals per game, while their defence allows 1.21 away from home. Londrina’s home attack is more robust (1.53 goals per home game), but their defensive record (1.20 conceded per home match) leaves them vulnerable. The last five for both sides show Londrina averaging 2.0 goals scored, but this is skewed by one outlier; Criciuma are at just 0.6 goals for and 2.0 against in the same span. Most indicators point towards a tight, attritional game, with both teams more likely to cancel each other out than produce a shootout. The model’s most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with neither side showing enough attacking consistency to be favoured outright. The under 2.5 goals market is supported by Criciuma’s season profile (only 21% over 2.5) and Londrina’s return to the mean after recent volatility. Set-piece and discipline numbers (combined 4.7 cards, 9.2 corners per match) suggest a physical, stop-start affair with limited open-play chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Criciuma’s last five matches: 4 losses, 1 win, just 3 goals scored.
Match Context
- →Criciuma have scored just 0.93 goals per away match this season.
- →Londrina’s home matches average 2.73 total goals, but their over 2.5 rate (65.5%) is inflated by two outlier results.
🚩 Londrina vs Criciuma Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.5 corners for Londrina and 4.8 for Criciuma, for an expected total of 11.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 58%.
How Londrina and Criciuma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Londrina vs Criciuma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Londrinalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Criciumalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Londrina have shown a recent uptick in home attack, averaging 2.0 goals per game over their last five, but this is skewed by a single 6-0 result. Criciuma, despite their higher league position, are on a three-match losing streak and have scored just once in their last three. Both sides are trending below their season averages for points and goals in recent weeks.
Londrina vs Criciuma — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +45.16% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 63% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Londrina vs Criciuma
Criciuma have the upper hand in recent meetings, with five wins and four draws from the last ten encounters. Most matches have been tight, with five draws and only one game exceeding three goals. Londrina have not beaten Criciuma at home since 2018, and the last two meetings finished 1-0 and 1-1.
Londrina vs Criciuma Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Londrina wins
4
Draws
6
Criciuma wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Londrina vs Criciuma
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be formally calculated. However, the model’s probabilities suggest the market may overrate Londrina’s recent attacking output and underrate the likelihood of a draw or under 2.5 goals, given both teams’ season-long scoring rates and the H2H trend.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Londrina vs Criciuma
- ⚠️Recent Londrina attacking numbers are volatile due to a single 6-0 win.
- ⚠️Criciuma’s current three-match losing streak could mask underlying defensive solidity.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and expected value estimates are not calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Londrina 1–1 CriciumaThe model predicts a 1-1 draw, anchored by Criciuma’s consistently low-scoring profile away from home (0.93 goals per game) and a head-to-head history heavy on draws and unders. The main risk to this scenario is Londrina’s recent attacking volatility, which, if repeated, could open the game up beyond the underlying rates.
Londrina vs Criciuma: Common Questions
Who will win Londrina vs Criciuma?
The model gives Londrina a 36% chance, Criciuma a 27% chance, and the draw a 37% chance. Both teams are struggling for form, and the most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Londrina vs Criciuma?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 62% probability, with Criciuma matches finishing under this line in 79% of games this season and both attacks trending below league average.
Will both teams score in Londrina vs Criciuma?
Both teams to score is rated at 44%, with the 'No' outcome more likely (56%) given Criciuma’s recent attacking struggles and the H2H trend towards low totals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Londrina vs Criciuma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.