Londrina vs Criciuma Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Londrina
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Criciuma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Londrina vs Criciuma
Londrina vs Criciuma: Match Preview
Londrina enter this match sitting 18th and desperate for points, having won two of their last five but losing most recently at home to Fortaleza EC. Their home form is erratic, with a heavy 6-0 win over Ponte Preta standing out amid otherwise modest scoring. Criciuma, in contrast, are in the playoff hunt but arrive on a three-match losing streak, failing to score in three of their last five and conceding eight in that span.
The statistical matchup is defined by Londrina’s relatively high shot volume at home (18.2 per game last five) against Criciuma’s away defence, which concedes 1.21 goals per match. Criciuma’s attack away from home is blunt, averaging just 0.93 goals per game, and their recent output (0.6 goals per game last five) is even lower. Both sides show a tendency for low-scoring matches: Criciuma’s season over 2.5 rate is only 21%, and their last five have produced just one BTTS result. Set-piece numbers suggest a physical contest, with both teams averaging over 7 corners and 15 fouls per game.
Given these rates and the head-to-head trend towards draws and low totals, the model expects a cagey encounter with scoring chances at a premium. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, with under 2.5 goals the most statistically supported market. Both teams’ recent volatility is noted, but the underlying season-long rates point towards a tight, low-event contest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Londrina vs Criciuma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Londrina vs Criciuma that most previews miss.
- 1Criciuma’s matches have finished under 2.5 goals in 23 of 29 games (79%) this season.
- 2Londrina’s home matches average 2.73 total goals, but only two of 15 have seen both teams score in both halves.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, five have ended in draws and only one saw more than three goals.
Who do you think wins: Londrina vs Criciuma?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Londrina vs Criciuma(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average just over a goal per game (Londrina 1.34, Criciuma 0.97), while neither defence is dominant; a low-scoring draw is the modal outcome in the Poisson model.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Criciuma matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 79% of their games, and Londrina’s recent attacking spike looks anomalous against their season-long rate.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Londrina vs Criciuma Prediction
This fixture pits relegation-threatened Londrina, 18th in the table, against a Criciuma side holding 6th but on a three-match losing run. Londrina have shown flashes of attacking potency at home, notably the 6-0 demolition of Ponte Preta, but their overall home record (W4 D5 L6) and 1.34 goals scored per game reflect inconsistency. Criciuma, despite a much stronger season overall, have struggled badly in recent weeks, failing to score in three of their last five and conceding two or more in four of those matches. Statistically, this match projects as a low-to-moderate scoring contest. Criciuma’s season-long away attack averages just 0.93 goals per game, while their defence allows 1.21 away from home. Londrina’s home attack is more robust (1.53 goals per home game), but their defensive record (1.20 conceded per home match) leaves them vulnerable. The last five for both sides show Londrina averaging 2.0 goals scored, but this is skewed by one outlier; Criciuma are at just 0.6 goals for and 2.0 against in the same span. Most indicators point towards a tight, attritional game, with both teams more likely to cancel each other out than produce a shootout. The model’s most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with neither side showing enough attacking consistency to be favoured outright. The under 2.5 goals market is supported by Criciuma’s season profile (only 21% over 2.5) and Londrina’s return to the mean after recent volatility. Set-piece and discipline numbers (combined 4.7 cards, 9.2 corners per match) suggest a physical, stop-start affair with limited open-play chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Criciuma’s last five matches: 4 losses, 1 win, just 3 goals scored.
Match Context
- →Criciuma have scored just 0.93 goals per away match this season.
- →Londrina’s home matches average 2.73 total goals, but their over 2.5 rate (65.5%) is inflated by two outlier results.
🚩 Londrina vs Criciuma Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Londrina and 5.2 for Criciuma, for an expected total of 11.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 61%.
How Londrina and Criciuma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Londrina vs Criciuma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Londrinalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Criciumalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Londrina have shown a recent uptick in home attack, averaging 2.0 goals per game over their last five, but this is skewed by a single 6-0 result. Criciuma, despite their higher league position, are on a three-match losing streak and have scored just once in their last three. Both sides are trending below their season averages for points and goals in recent weeks.
Londrina vs Criciuma — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.52% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 58% avg
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Londrina vs Criciuma
Criciuma have the upper hand in recent meetings, with five wins and four draws from the last ten encounters. Most matches have been tight, with five draws and only one game exceeding three goals. Londrina have not beaten Criciuma at home since 2018, and the last two meetings finished 1-0 and 1-1.
Londrina vs Criciuma Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Londrina wins
4
Draws
5
Criciuma wins
Things to Watch: Londrina vs Criciuma
- ⚠️Recent Londrina attacking numbers are volatile due to a single 6-0 win.
- ⚠️Criciuma’s current three-match losing streak could mask underlying defensive solidity.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and expected value estimates are not calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Londrina 1–1 CriciumaThe model predicts a 1-1 draw, anchored by Criciuma’s consistently low-scoring profile away from home (0.93 goals per game) and a head-to-head history heavy on draws and unders. The main risk to this scenario is Londrina’s recent attacking volatility, which, if repeated, could open the game up beyond the underlying rates.
Londrina vs Criciuma: Common Questions
Who will win Londrina vs Criciuma?
The model gives Londrina a 36% chance, Criciuma a 27% chance, and the draw a 37% chance. Both teams are struggling for form, and the most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Londrina vs Criciuma?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 62% probability, with Criciuma matches finishing under this line in 79% of games this season and both attacks trending below league average.
Will both teams score in Londrina vs Criciuma?
Both teams to score is rated at 44%, with the 'No' outcome more likely (56%) given Criciuma’s recent attacking struggles and the H2H trend towards low totals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Londrina vs Criciuma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.