CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
CSKA Sofia
Full Time
1 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 1
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7/10Maccabi Tel Aviv Outclass CSKA Sofia with Clinical Display in Sofia
Maccabi Tel Aviv produced a commanding away performance to secure a 3-1 victory over CSKA Sofia at the Vasil Levski National Stadium in this UEFA Europa League encounter. The visitors struck early and managed the game expertly, with goals at crucial junctures to keep their Bulgarian hosts at arm’s length throughout. CSKA Sofia managed to pull a goal back in the second half, but Maccabi’s swift response extinguished any hopes of a comeback. The match opened with Maccabi Tel Aviv stamping their authority, finding the net in the 12th minute. After a disciplined first half, the Israeli side doubled their lead just after the hour mark. CSKA Sofia responded with a goal of their own in the 66th minute, momentarily igniting the home crowd, but Maccabi replied almost immediately, restoring their two-goal cushion in the 69th minute and effectively sealing the contest. Both sides saw three players booked in a competitive but controlled affair.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
12' — Goal
Maccabi Tel Aviv open the scoring, taking early control of the match.
61' — Goal
Maccabi Tel Aviv double their lead, putting CSKA Sofia under real pressure.
66' — Goal
CSKA Sofia pull one back, briefly threatening a comeback.
69' — Goal
Maccabi Tel Aviv respond immediately, restoring their two-goal advantage and quelling CSKA Sofia’s momentum.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams receive three yellow cards each in a competitive contest.
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia struggled to impose themselves for large stretches of the match, falling behind early and chasing the game for much of the evening. While they showed spirit to halve the deficit in the 66th minute, their defensive frailties were exposed almost immediately as Maccabi Tel Aviv restored their advantage. The hosts’ inability to maintain momentum after scoring proved costly, and their efforts were further hampered by three yellow cards, reflecting a degree of frustration. Despite flashes of attacking intent, CSKA Sofia lacked the cutting edge and composure required to trouble the visitors consistently. Their defensive organization was found wanting at key moments, and their attempts to claw back into the match ultimately fell short.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv delivered a professional and clinical away performance, striking early and managing the tempo of the game. Their ability to score at pivotal moments—especially their immediate response to CSKA Sofia’s goal—demonstrated composure and tactical awareness. The visitors’ three goals, spread across both halves, were a testament to their efficiency in front of goal and their capacity to exploit defensive lapses. Defensively, Maccabi Tel Aviv remained organized, conceding only once and never allowing CSKA Sofia to build sustained pressure. The three yellow cards picked up were a minor blemish in an otherwise disciplined display. Their attacking transitions and timely goals ultimately proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With neither team’s formation disclosed, the pattern of the game suggested Maccabi Tel Aviv were well-drilled and compact, likely operating with a solid midfield base that allowed them to transition quickly into attack. Their ability to strike at key moments hints at a tactical plan focused on exploiting CSKA Sofia’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly after turnovers or moments of disorganization. CSKA Sofia, meanwhile, appeared to struggle with midfield control and defensive shape, especially after scoring. Their discipline issues, indicated by three yellow cards, may have stemmed from chasing the game and being forced into risky tackles. Maccabi’s immediate response to CSKA’s goal underlines their tactical maturity and focus, refusing to allow the hosts any sustained momentum.
Turning Point
Maccabi Tel Aviv’s goal in the 69th minute, coming just three minutes after CSKA Sofia had reduced the deficit, decisively ended any hopes of a home comeback.
Man of the Match
Maccabi Tel Aviv Second Goalscorer
Scored the crucial second goal and played a pivotal role in maintaining Maccabi’s control at key moments.
CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Match Preview
CSKA Sofia enter this Europa League fixture unbeaten in their last five, with a form string of WWDDW and only three goals conceded across that span. Their early domestic and European campaign has been built on defensive structure, as evidenced by two clean sheets and just 1.4 goals scored per game in the last five. Maccabi Tel Aviv, meanwhile, have started their European season with back-to-back wins and a remarkable 6:0 aggregate, but their numbers are heavily influenced by a 5-0 rout of Sheriff Tiraspol; their only other competitive match ended 1-0, suggesting a more conservative output against better opposition.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by CSKA’s home resilience (1.25 goals conceded per game this season, 50% clean sheet rate) against Maccabi’s efficiency (3 goals per game, but only 1 goal in their last home leg). Both teams have landed under 2.5 goals in half of their European fixtures, and CSKA have failed to score in two of their last five. The first half could be especially cagey, with both sides averaging fewer than one first-half goal per game recently.
The model expects a low-scoring, balanced contest, with neither side holding a significant edge in attack or defence once outlier results are discounted. The likeliest scenario is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline the modal outcome, as both teams prioritise structure and risk minimisation in the first leg of a European tie.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv that most previews miss.
- 1Maccabi Tel Aviv have conceded zero goals in their two Europa League matches this season, both home and away.
- 2CSKA Sofia have scored just once before half-time in their last five matches, with most of their attacking output coming after the break.
- 3Across their last five matches, CSKA Sofia have averaged only 1.2 yellow cards per game, indicating a disciplined approach.
Who do you think wins: CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides have shown defensive solidity recently (CSKA Sofia: 2 clean sheets in last 5, Maccabi Tel Aviv: 3 clean sheets in last 5), and their scoring rates suggest a low-scoring draw is the modal outcome.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have landed under 2.5 in half their European matches this season, and their combined season average is 1.25 (CSKA) and 3.0 (Maccabi, skewed by one big win); with both sides keeping multiple recent clean sheets, a tight contest is likely.
Read more ↓
More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction
This Europa League tie brings together two sides in solid early-season form, but with contrasting scoring profiles: CSKA Sofia have relied on defensive discipline, while Maccabi Tel Aviv’s numbers are inflated by a single high-scoring away win. The data points to a contest shaped by caution and control, with neither side likely to overcommit early.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →CSKA Sofia have conceded just 0.8 goals per game over their last five matches.
- →Maccabi Tel Aviv have a 100% clean sheet rate in European competition this season (2 matches).
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 50% of their European matches this campaign.
🚩 CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for CSKA Sofia and 4.5 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How CSKA Sofia and Maccabi Tel Aviv Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
CSKA Sofialast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Maccabi Tel Avivlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CSKA Sofia come into this match unbeaten in their last five, with a pair of home wins and two goalless draws highlighting their defensive focus. Maccabi Tel Aviv are on a three-match winning streak, including a 5-0 away win in Europe, but their other competitive results have been more modest. Both sides’ momentum is underpinned by strong defensive numbers rather than prolific attacking returns.
CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
What History Says: CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
There is no head-to-head data available for this fixture, so no recurring patterns or dominance can be established between CSKA Sofia and Maccabi Tel Aviv.
CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
CSKA Sofia wins
0
Draws
1
Maccabi Tel Aviv wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
With no bookmaker odds available, value calculations cannot be performed. However, the model’s probabilities suggest the market should lean towards a low-scoring draw, and any odds implying a clear favourite would likely offer value on the underdog or the draw.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data available, increasing uncertainty around relative strength.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes for both teams’ season records; Maccabi’s goal rate is skewed by a single 5-0 result.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CSKA Sofia 1–1 Maccabi Tel AvivA 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome, supported by both teams’ recent defensive records and the low goal averages in their European campaigns. The strongest data point is Maccabi Tel Aviv’s 100% clean sheet rate in Europe, but with CSKA Sofia’s home form and ability to grind out results, a narrow, low-scoring stalemate is favoured. The main risk is that Maccabi’s attack, which exploded for five goals away to Sheriff, could find another gear if CSKA’s defence falters.
CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Common Questions
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
The model rates this as a near 50-50 contest, with 32% probability for either side to win and a 36% chance of a draw. Both teams have shown defensive solidity, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
There is a 48% probability of both teams scoring, with CSKA Sofia failing to score in two of their last five and Maccabi Tel Aviv keeping three clean sheets in that span. Margins are tight, but 'No' edges it at 52%.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 62% probability, as both sides have landed under 2.5 in half of their European matches and their recent defensive records point toward a low-scoring affair.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 6 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.