Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Full Time
0 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 0
CSKA Sofia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Clinical CSKA Sofia Cruise Past Maccabi Tel Aviv with 3-0 Away Win
CSKA Sofia produced a commanding performance at Batumi Arena, dispatching Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-0 in their UEFA Europa League clash. The Bulgarian side struck early, with Leandro Godoy opening the scoring in the 9th minute, and doubled their lead through Ioannis Pittas before the half-hour mark. Despite Maccabi Tel Aviv’s attempts to claw back into the contest, they struggled to create chances, registering just two shots on target all match. CSKA Sofia’s superiority was reflected in both possession (51%) and attacking intent, as they fired seven shots on target compared to the hosts’ two. The result was sealed in stoppage time when Stefano Sensi added a third, capping a dominant display and leaving Maccabi Tel Aviv with much to ponder after a lacklustre showing.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
0 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
9' — Goal
Leandro Godoy puts CSKA Sofia ahead with a clinical early finish.
29' — Goal
Ioannis Pittas doubles the visitors' lead after sustained pressure.
45' — Yellow Card
Dor Peretz (Maccabi Tel Aviv) booked for a late challenge, reflecting home frustration.
60' — Yellow Card
Ángelo Martino (CSKA Sofia) receives a yellow for a tactical foul.
83' — Yellow Card
Facundo Rodríguez (CSKA Sofia) cautioned as tensions rise late on.
90' — Goal
Stefano Sensi seals the result with a well-taken third for CSKA Sofia.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv were outclassed on the night, struggling to impose themselves in midfield and offering little threat in attack. Their 4-2-3-1 formation failed to generate meaningful opportunities, with the front line isolated and the creative midfielders unable to unlock a disciplined CSKA Sofia defence. The hosts managed only two shots, both on target, but neither truly troubled Fedor Lapoukhov in the visiting goal. Defensively, Maccabi Tel Aviv were frequently exposed, conceding twice in the opening half-hour and being forced into committing 21 fouls as they chased the game. The side’s frustration was evident, picking up three yellow cards, and they never found a way back into the contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia delivered a near-flawless away performance, combining defensive solidity with clinical finishing. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to control midfield exchanges and exploit spaces in behind the Maccabi Tel Aviv back line. The visitors were ruthless in front of goal, converting all seven of their shots on target into meaningful threats and scoring three times. The Bulgarian side managed the game with maturity, balancing attacking ambition with defensive discipline. Four players picked up yellow cards, but their aggression was largely controlled, and they limited Maccabi Tel Aviv to just two shots all match. The late third goal from Stefano Sensi was a fitting reward for their dominance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Maccabi Tel Aviv lined up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to control midfield and provide support to lone forward Saied Abu Farchi. However, their double pivot was consistently outnumbered by CSKA Sofia’s three-man midfield, where Sensi, Jordão, and Ebong dictated play. The Israeli side struggled to progress the ball, with their attacking midfielders isolated and forced into speculative passes or turnovers. CSKA Sofia’s 4-3-3 was both compact and fluid, allowing them to press high and transition quickly. Their full-backs, Pastor and Martino, provided width, while Godoy and Pittas stretched the Maccabi defence. The visitors’ pressing forced turnovers and their midfield trio controlled tempo, while their defensive line remained composed under sporadic pressure. The tactical discipline and clinical edge made the difference.
Turning Point
Ioannis Pittas’s goal in the 29th minute gave CSKA Sofia a commanding two-goal cushion, deflating Maccabi Tel Aviv and allowing the visitors to dictate the rest of the match.
Man of the Match
Stefano Sensi
Controlled the midfield throughout, capped his performance with a late goal, and orchestrated CSKA Sofia’s attacking moves.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia: Match Preview
Maccabi Tel Aviv come into this Europa League qualifier in strong form, having won three consecutive competitive matches, including a 6-0 aggregate over Sheriff Tiraspol in the previous round. Their defensive solidity is notable, with three clean sheets in their last five and no goals conceded in European play so far this season. CSKA Sofia, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions, but their attack has been inconsistent, failing to score in two matches and relying on late goals in their domestic league opener.
The statistical matchup points to a tight contest. Maccabi’s home defensive record (1-0 win last time out, 100% clean sheets in Europe) stands against a CSKA Sofia side whose away record is solid (1 win, 1 draw, 1 goal conceded in two European away games). Both sides average just 1.25–3 goals scored per game in Europe this season, with under 2.5 goals landing in half of their matches. First-half goals have been scarce for both, and Maccabi’s last five have averaged only 0.4 goals conceded per game.
Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring, risk-averse first leg, with Maccabi Tel Aviv’s defensive structure likely to dictate the tempo. CSKA Sofia’s recent draws and lack of attacking output away from home tip the balance slightly towards the hosts, but a narrow margin is expected, with 1-0 the most probable outcome. The likeliest deviation comes if either side capitalises on a set piece or defensive lapse.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia that most previews miss.
- 1Maccabi Tel Aviv have conceded just once in their last five matches, with three clean sheets and only one BTTS outcome.
- 2CSKA Sofia have drawn 0-0 in both legs against Qarabag in the previous round, highlighting a recent trend towards low-scoring stalemates.
- 3Maccabi’s last five matches average just 0.4 goals conceded and 2.4 corners per game, indicating a controlled, low-event style.
Who do you think wins: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have played to under 2.5 goals in half their European matches this season, and Maccabi Tel Aviv’s defensive record (0 goals conceded in 2 Europa League games, 3 clean sheets in last 5) points to a low-scoring contest.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Maccabi Tel Aviv Win
Home advantage and a 100% clean sheet record in competitive matches this season give Maccabi Tel Aviv a statistical edge, though CSKA Sofia’s unbeaten run tempers the probability.
Read more ↓
More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, cagey Europa League tie, with Maccabi Tel Aviv’s defensive strength at home facing a CSKA Sofia side unbeaten in four European games but struggling for attacking consistency away. The home side’s perfect defensive record in Europe this season (0 goals conceded in 2 games) and three clean sheets in their last five matches set the baseline expectation, while CSKA Sofia’s away output (1 goal conceded per away game, 2 clean sheets in 4 European matches) suggests a contest of fine margins. Both sides’ season over 2.5 goal rate sits at 50%, but recent trends and the context of a first-leg tie point to a more conservative affair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →CSKA Sofia have failed to score in two of their last five but are unbeaten in four Europa League matches (2W, 2D).
Defence
- →Maccabi Tel Aviv have kept clean sheets in both Europa League matches this season and three of their last five overall.
Match Context
- →Both teams’ season over 2.5 goal rate is only 50%, and BTTS has landed just once in Maccabi’s last five.
How Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Sofia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Maccabi Tel Avivlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
CSKA Sofialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Maccabi Tel Aviv are riding a three-match winning streak in competitive fixtures, including a 6-0 aggregate win over Sheriff Tiraspol and a Super Cup triumph. CSKA Sofia remain unbeaten in their last five, but two goalless draws in their most recent European ties highlight a lack of attacking consistency. Both sides have shown defensive resilience, but Maccabi’s record of three clean sheets in five stands out.
Things to Watch: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standings data is available, limiting context on relative strength.
- ⚠️Recent sample sizes are small, especially for early-season European qualifiers.
- ⚠️Odds are unavailable, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 CSKA SofiaA 1-0 home win is the statistical favourite, underpinned by Maccabi Tel Aviv’s 100% clean sheet rate in European competition this season. The main risk to this projection is CSKA Sofia’s ability to frustrate and keep games tight, as seen in their back-to-back 0-0 draws against Qarabag, which could tilt the match towards a goalless draw if Maccabi lack attacking penetration.
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia: Common Questions
Who will win Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv a 48% chance of victory, with a 33% probability for a draw and 19% for a CSKA Sofia win. Defensive strength at home tips the balance slightly towards the Israeli side.
Will both teams score in Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia?
Both teams to score is rated at just 31%, with 69% for 'no', reflecting Maccabi’s three clean sheets in their last five and CSKA Sofia’s two recent 0-0 draws in Europe.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is favoured at 66% probability, based on both teams’ recent low-scoring matches and defensive records in European qualifiers this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.