Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Cuiaba
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
Vila Nova
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Cuiaba Snatch Dramatic Late Winner Over Vila Nova at Arena Pantanal
Cuiaba left it late but ultimately secured all three points in a tense encounter against Vila Nova, clinching a 1-0 victory at Arena Pantanal thanks to a dramatic 90th-minute winner. The match was a cagey affair with both sides struggling to break each other down, but the hosts found the breakthrough just as the game seemed destined for a draw. Both teams showed plenty of defensive discipline, and with a yellow card apiece, the match was a physical contest throughout. In the end, it was Cuiaba’s persistence that paid off, sending the home fans into raptures with a last-gasp goal that proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
90' — Goal
Cuiaba score the decisive goal in the dying moments to secure the win.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Cuiaba receive a yellow card, showing their willingness to battle.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Vila Nova pick up a yellow card in a physical contest.
Cuiaba
Cuiaba displayed patience and resilience, keeping their composure despite the deadlock lasting until the final moments. Their defense remained solid, and they maintained discipline with only one yellow card. The late goal was a testament to their determination and refusal to settle for a point at home.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vila Nova
Vila Nova matched Cuiaba for much of the contest, showing strong organization and discipline. They conceded only one yellow card and managed to frustrate the home side for 90 minutes, but ultimately could not hold out for a point, undone by a lapse in concentration at the death.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams likely setting up in disciplined formations, the match unfolded as a tactical chess match, with neither side willing to overcommit. Defensive lines held firm, and midfield battles were fierce, as evidenced by the low card count and lack of open chances. The late goal suggests Cuiaba may have pushed more bodies forward in the closing stages, capitalizing on Vila Nova’s fatigue or lapse in focus. Set pieces and late surges proved crucial, as open play yielded little for either side.
Turning Point
The 90th-minute goal for Cuiaba, which broke the deadlock and decided the contest.
Man of the Match
Unknown
Scored the match-winning goal in the 90th minute, delivering victory for Cuiaba.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
13%
BTTS: Yes
21%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cuiaba vs Vila Nova(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have strong under trends: Cuiaba has 0% over 2.5 for the season and Vila Nova's away matches are often low scoring. Both teams' last 5 games average under 2 goals combined.
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Double Chance: Draw or Vila Nova
Vila Nova are in much better form (WWWLD), sit 2nd in the table, and have a strong away record, while Cuiaba have only 1 home win in 6 and rarely score.
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BTTS: No
Cuiaba have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and have the league's lowest goals for. Vila Nova keep clean sheets in 2 of last 5 and are defensively solid away.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Prediction
This is a clash of contrasting styles and momentum: Cuiaba, despite being tough to beat at home, have struggled for goals and wins, while Vila Nova arrive in excellent form and with promotion ambitions. Expect a tight, tactical affair with few clear chances, where the visitors’ superior attacking output and confidence may just edge a low-scoring contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Cuiaba's home record is weak (1W, 4D, 1L) and they have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Head-to-heads are generally low scoring, with 4 of the last 6 meetings finishing under 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 4 away games and have won 3 straight matches, scoring 5 and conceding just 1 in that run.
- →Vila Nova's away defence has conceded only 6 in 6, and their attack is among the best in the league.
Match Context
- →Cuiaba have scored just 6 goals in 11 matches (0.55 per game) and have not had a single match go over 2.5 goals this season.
🚩 Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Cuiaba and 5.6 for Vila Nova, for an expected total of 11.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 61%.
How Cuiaba and Vila Nova Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Cuiabalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vila Novalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cuiaba’s recent form is mixed, with just one win in their last five and three consecutive draws before a recent home victory. Their main issue is a lack of goals, failing to score in three of those five. Vila Nova, on the other hand, are on a three-match winning streak, including two away wins, and have lost just once all season, showing both attacking intent and defensive resilience.
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +61.54% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cuiaba vs Vila Nova
The last 10 meetings between these sides have been closely contested, with neither team dominating. Matches are often low scoring, with several 1-0, 1-1, and 0-0 results, and the most recent fixture at Cuiaba ended 1-0 to the hosts. Draws are common, and goals are typically at a premium.
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Cuiaba wins
2
Draws
3
Vila Nova wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cuiaba vs Vila Nova
Without bookmaker odds, it is not possible to calculate precise value edges. However, the model indicates strong value on under 2.5 goals and double chance X2, given the teams’ respective form and goal patterns. If odds for these markets are above 1.50 for under 2.5 or 1.40 for X2, they would likely represent value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cuiaba vs Vila Nova
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value bets cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Cuiaba's high draw rate (7 in 11) increases draw probability and makes 1x2 outcomes more volatile.
- ⚠️Lineups are unavailable; late injuries or rotations could impact the match.
- ⚠️Vila Nova's recent red card and high yellow card count suggest possible discipline risks.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cuiaba vs Vila Nova: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 7 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.