Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Vila Nova
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Cuiaba
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.8(+33% edge)
Match Result
6/10Stalemate in Goiania: Vila Nova and Cuiaba Play Out Goalless Draw
Vila Nova and Cuiaba battled to a 0-0 draw at the Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga in a match that was high on intensity but low on clear-cut chances. Both sides showed flashes of attacking promise but ultimately lacked the clinical edge required to break the deadlock. Vila Nova edged the shot count with 13 attempts, three of which were on target, while Cuiaba managed just one shot on target from nine efforts, despite marginally dominating possession with 51%. The contest was a tactical chess match, with neither team able to convert their periods of control into meaningful opportunities. The hosts, set up in a 4-2-3-1, pressed forward with intent, winning eight corners and forcing the issue through their attacking midfielders, but found Cuiaba’s three-man defense resolute. The visitors, deploying a 3-4-2-1, struggled to create much going forward and were largely contained by Vila Nova’s disciplined backline. A flurry of yellow cards—four for Vila Nova and two for Cuiaba—reflected the match’s combative nature, but neither side could find the decisive moment.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
18' — Yellow Card
Vila Nova’s Dudu booked for a late challenge, setting the tone for a physical contest.
34' — Yellow Card
Cuiaba’s Raul shown yellow for a tactical foul to halt a Vila Nova counter.
52' — Save
João Carlos denies André Luís with a strong save, Vila Nova’s best chance.
67' — Yellow Card
Vila Nova’s Tiago Pagnussat booked for dissent after a contentious foul.
83' — Yellow Card
Vila Nova’s Marquinhos Gabriel receives a yellow for a late tackle in midfield.
Vila Nova
Vila Nova showed attacking intent, registering 13 shots and winning eight corners, but their finishing let them down as only three efforts tested João Carlos in the Cuiaba goal. The midfield trio of Everton Galdino, Marquinhos Gabriel, and Janderson tried to unlock the visitors’ defense, while André Luís worked hard up front. Defensively, the back four were solid, limiting Cuiaba to just one shot on target, but the hosts’ aggression also saw them pick up four yellow cards. Despite their efforts, Vila Nova’s inability to convert territorial advantage into goals was telling. Their pressing forced errors and kept Cuiaba on the back foot at times, but a lack of composure in the final third meant they had to settle for a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Cuiaba
Cuiaba’s 3-4-2-1 setup allowed them to control possession slightly (51%) and keep the ball moving in midfield, but their attacking play lacked penetration. With only one shot on target all evening, the visitors rarely threatened Helton Leite’s goal. Defensively, João Basso and his fellow center-backs dealt well with Vila Nova’s forays, while João Carlos was alert when called upon. Cuiaba’s midfield, led by Raul and David Miguel, circulated possession but struggled to break Vila Nova’s lines. The lack of support for lone striker Fábio Gomes was evident, and the side’s attacking midfielders could not find pockets of space to exploit.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Vila Nova’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to commit numbers forward while maintaining defensive solidity. Their double pivot in midfield provided a platform for the attacking trio to press high and recycle possession, resulting in a steady stream of corners and shots, though the final ball was often lacking. The fullbacks offered width but were careful not to overcommit, wary of Cuiaba’s potential for counterattacks. Cuiaba’s 3-4-2-1 prioritized control in central areas and defensive security. The wingbacks provided width but were largely pinned back by Vila Nova’s pressure. In attack, support for Fábio Gomes was limited, with the two attacking midfielders unable to find space between the lines. Both teams’ disciplined shapes led to a congested midfield and few clear chances, with set pieces offering the best opportunities.
Turning Point
João Carlos’s save from André Luís early in the second half kept Cuiaba level and ultimately ensured the points were shared.
Man of the Match
João Carlos
Made three crucial saves and commanded his area to secure a clean sheet for Cuiaba.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: Match Preview
Vila Nova arrive as league leaders, having taken 12 wins from 15 at home and conceding just 11 times on their own turf. Their recent form is strong, with three wins and a draw in their last four, and they have kept three clean sheets in their last five. Cuiaba, sitting 10th, are a tough side to break down but have only four away wins and a high draw rate, reflecting a conservative approach on the road.
Statistically, this is a clash between the league's tightest home defence and an away side who average just 0.87 goals per away game. Vila Nova's attack is efficient at home (2.07 goals per game), but Cuiaba's away defence concedes just over one per match. Both teams rarely see high-scoring games: Vila Nova's home matches are under 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and Cuiaba's away games are under that mark 73%. Corners and cards are both above average, with Vila Nova averaging over 16 fouls per game in their last five.
The model expects a controlled, low-scoring match, with Vila Nova's home advantage and defensive solidity giving them the edge. The likeliest outcome is a narrow home win or a draw, with a 1-0 scoreline most probable. The main threat to this projection is a set-piece breakthrough or a red card swinging the balance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vila Nova vs Cuiaba that most previews miss.
- 1Vila Nova's home matches average just 1.47 total goals per game (31 for, 11 against in 15).
- 2Cuiaba have drawn 6 of 15 away games and 13 overall this season, the joint-highest in Serie B.
- 3Across the last 10 H2Hs, only three matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.8
Both sides have seen BTTS in just 1 of their last 5 matches, and season-long rates are low: Vila Nova's home matches see BTTS only 26.7% of the time, while Cuiaba's away games are even lower at 20%. Model probability for 'no' is 0.74, well above the implied 0.56 at 1.80.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 3.2
With both teams conceding just over a goal per game and a combined 19 draws in 60 matches this season, the draw is a live outcome. Model probability of 0.33 gives a small edge over the implied 0.31.
Read more ↓
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Prediction
This fixture pits the league leaders Vila Nova, boasting a formidable 12-2-1 home record, against mid-table Cuiaba, who have drawn 13 of 30 this season and are cautious travellers. Both sides are defensively robust, with clean sheet rates above 36% and a combined over 2.5 goals rate below 33%. The statistical profile points to a low-scoring, attritional contest decided by which side can break through a disciplined back line.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in only 1 of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Cuiaba's away attack is modest: 13 goals in 15 away games (0.87 per game).
Defence
- →Vila Nova's home record: 12 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, conceding just 11 in 15.
🚩 Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Vila Nova and 5.5 for Cuiaba, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
How Vila Nova and Cuiaba Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vila Novalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cuiabalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vila Nova are in strong form, winning four of their last five and keeping three clean sheets in that span. Their only recent blemish was a heavy 0-5 away defeat, but at home they've been dominant. Cuiaba's recent run is mixed, alternating wins and losses, and their away form remains cautious with only four wins from 15.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
Cuiaba have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten, but Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last three home meetings with Cuiaba. Low scores are common, with only three of the last ten H2Hs seeing more than two goals.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Vila Nova wins
3
Draws
5
Cuiaba wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
The strongest value is on 'both teams to score: no', with a model probability of 74% versus a typical market price of 1.80 (implied 56%), yielding a +33% edge. The draw also offers a small value margin, with a 33% model probability against a typical 3.20 price (31% implied).
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds for most markets; value assessments use typical Serie B lines.
- ⚠️Recent 5-0 defeat for Vila Nova is an outlier but could hint at volatility.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is solid but sample size is small for last 5 trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vila Nova 1–0 CuiabaVila Nova are projected to edge a low-scoring contest 1-0, with their league-best home record (12 wins from 15, conceding just 0.73 per game) the single strongest indicator. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Cuiaba's high draw rate and defensive discipline frustrate the hosts, leading to a goalless stalemate.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: Common Questions
Who will win Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Vila Nova are favoured with a 47% win probability, driven by their 12-2-1 home record and strong defensive numbers. The draw is also a significant risk at 33%, with Cuiaba's away win chance at 20%.
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
The model gives just a 26% chance of both teams scoring, as both sides have seen BTTS in only one of their last five matches and season-long rates are similarly low.
Is this likely to be a high-scoring game?
No, the probability of over 2.5 goals is just 28%. Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per game and have combined for under 2.5 in over two-thirds of their matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.