Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Vila Nova
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Cuiaba
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.8(+33% edge)
Recommended Bets: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: Match Preview
Vila Nova arrive as league leaders, having taken 12 wins from 15 at home and conceding just 11 times on their own turf. Their recent form is strong, with three wins and a draw in their last four, and they have kept three clean sheets in their last five. Cuiaba, sitting 10th, are a tough side to break down but have only four away wins and a high draw rate, reflecting a conservative approach on the road.
Statistically, this is a clash between the league's tightest home defence and an away side who average just 0.87 goals per away game. Vila Nova's attack is efficient at home (2.07 goals per game), but Cuiaba's away defence concedes just over one per match. Both teams rarely see high-scoring games: Vila Nova's home matches are under 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and Cuiaba's away games are under that mark 73%. Corners and cards are both above average, with Vila Nova averaging over 16 fouls per game in their last five.
The model expects a controlled, low-scoring match, with Vila Nova's home advantage and defensive solidity giving them the edge. The likeliest outcome is a narrow home win or a draw, with a 1-0 scoreline most probable. The main threat to this projection is a set-piece breakthrough or a red card swinging the balance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vila Nova vs Cuiaba that most previews miss.
- 1Vila Nova's home matches average just 1.47 total goals per game (31 for, 11 against in 15).
- 2Cuiaba have drawn 6 of 15 away games and 13 overall this season, the joint-highest in Serie B.
- 3Across the last 10 H2Hs, only three matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.8
Both sides have seen BTTS in just 1 of their last 5 matches, and season-long rates are low: Vila Nova's home matches see BTTS only 26.7% of the time, while Cuiaba's away games are even lower at 20%. Model probability for 'no' is 0.74, well above the implied 0.56 at 1.80.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.2
With both teams conceding just over a goal per game and a combined 19 draws in 60 matches this season, the draw is a live outcome. Model probability of 0.33 gives a small edge over the implied 0.31.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Prediction
This fixture pits the league leaders Vila Nova, boasting a formidable 12-2-1 home record, against mid-table Cuiaba, who have drawn 13 of 30 this season and are cautious travellers. Both sides are defensively robust, with clean sheet rates above 36% and a combined over 2.5 goals rate below 33%. The statistical profile points to a low-scoring, attritional contest decided by which side can break through a disciplined back line.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in only 1 of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Cuiaba's away attack is modest: 13 goals in 15 away games (0.87 per game).
Defence
- →Vila Nova's home record: 12 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, conceding just 11 in 15.
🚩 Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Vila Nova and 5.2 for Cuiaba, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Vila Nova and Cuiaba Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vila Novalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cuiabalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vila Nova are in strong form, winning four of their last five and keeping three clean sheets in that span. Their only recent blemish was a heavy 0-5 away defeat, but at home they've been dominant. Cuiaba's recent run is mixed, alternating wins and losses, and their away form remains cautious with only four wins from 15.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
Cuiaba have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten, but Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last three home meetings with Cuiaba. Low scores are common, with only three of the last ten H2Hs seeing more than two goals.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Vila Nova wins
2
Draws
5
Cuiaba wins
Things to Watch: Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds for most markets; value assessments use typical Serie B lines.
- ⚠️Recent 5-0 defeat for Vila Nova is an outlier but could hint at volatility.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is solid but sample size is small for last 5 trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vila Nova 1–0 CuiabaVila Nova are projected to edge a low-scoring contest 1-0, with their league-best home record (12 wins from 15, conceding just 0.73 per game) the single strongest indicator. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Cuiaba's high draw rate and defensive discipline frustrate the hosts, leading to a goalless stalemate.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: Common Questions
Who will win Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Vila Nova are favoured with a 47% win probability, driven by their 12-2-1 home record and strong defensive numbers. The draw is also a significant risk at 33%, with Cuiaba's away win chance at 20%.
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
The model gives just a 26% chance of both teams scoring, as both sides have seen BTTS in only one of their last five matches and season-long rates are similarly low.
Is this likely to be a high-scoring game?
No, the probability of over 2.5 goals is just 28%. Both teams average under 1.5 goals scored per game and have combined for under 2.5 in over two-thirds of their matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Resources
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Cuiaba Predictions
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Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results