DC United vs New England Revolution Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
DC United
Full Time
0 - 3
AI predicted 2 - 2
New England Revolution
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+15% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Clinical Revolution Overwhelm DC United with 3-0 Triumph at Audi Field
New England Revolution produced a dominant away performance to dispatch DC United 3-0 at Audi Field, controlling the match from start to finish. The visitors' attacking trio proved decisive, with goals arriving in the 23rd, 45th, and 66th minutes, while DC United struggled to break through a disciplined Revolution defense. The Revolution dictated the tempo with 60% possession and peppered Sean Johnson's goal with 15 shots, seven of which were on target. DC United, despite registering 14 attempts, managed just two on target, as their 4-4-2 setup failed to generate clear-cut chances. The result underlines New England's attacking quality and tactical discipline, while DC United are left searching for answers after a comprehensive home defeat.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
0 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Goal
New England Revolution open the scoring, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
45' — Goal
Revolution double their lead just before halftime, punishing DC United's defensive lapse.
66' — Goal
The visitors seal the victory with a third goal, extinguishing any hopes of a DC United comeback.
54' — Yellow Card
DC United pick up their only yellow card as frustration mounts.
70' — Yellow Card
New England Revolution receive their second yellow card, reflecting their aggressive pressing.
DC United
DC United endured a tough evening, unable to match New England's intensity or precision. Their 4-4-2 formation struggled to gain a foothold in midfield, and despite 14 shots, they rarely troubled Matt Turner in the Revolution goal. The lack of attacking cohesion and limited possession (40%) left them chasing shadows for much of the game. Defensively, the backline was breached three times, with lapses in concentration at key moments. The midfield failed to provide adequate cover or creativity, and the forwards were largely isolated, unable to capitalize on the few opportunities that arose.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
New England Revolution
New England Revolution delivered a clinical and composed display, controlling proceedings with 60% possession and a well-balanced 4-3-3 formation. Their attacking trio was sharp, converting three of seven shots on target, and the midfield, led by Carles Gil, dictated play with authority. Defensively, the Revolution were organized and disciplined, conceding just two shots on target and limiting DC United's attacking threat. Their ability to transition quickly and exploit spaces between the lines proved decisive, as they put the game beyond doubt before the hour mark.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
DC United set up in a 4-4-2, aiming for compactness and direct play, but struggled to assert themselves in midfield against New England's 4-3-3. The Revolution's extra man in the center allowed them to dictate tempo and recycle possession, while their wingers stretched DC's backline and created overloads in wide areas. New England pressed high and transitioned quickly, exploiting spaces behind DC United's fullbacks. Set pieces were evenly matched, with both sides earning three corners, but the Revolution's superior movement and clinical finishing made the difference. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical balance, as New England maintained control throughout.
Turning Point
The second goal on the stroke of halftime, which gave New England a commanding 2-0 lead and deflated DC United's hopes.
Man of the Match
Carles Gil
Dictated play from midfield, orchestrating attacks and providing the creative spark that unlocked DC United's defense.
DC United vs New England Revolution: Match Preview
DC United arrive at Audi Field on a run of four draws in their last five, sitting 9th in the table with 23 points from 18 matches. Their inability to convert performances into wins has been a theme, but they have shown consistent attacking output, scoring in every one of their last five. New England Revolution, despite being 3rd in the league, have struggled away from home (1W, 2D, 4L) and come off a home defeat to Houston Dynamo. The away side's points tally is built on formidable home form, while their road matches have been far less convincing.
Statistically, this fixture leans strongly towards goals. DC United average 1.44 scored and 1.61 conceded per game, while New England post a 1.56/1.28 split. DC United's home matches average nearly 3.8 goals (15 for, 19 against in 9 games), and their last five outings have seen both teams score every time. New England's away defence has conceded 13 in 7, and their last five overall have seen a combined 12 goals. Both sides average over 5 corners per game, and DC United's matches are averaging over 4 cards per game in recent weeks, suggesting set-piece and discipline volatility.
The model expects an open, high-scoring contest with both sides likely to find the net. DC United's defensive frailty, paired with New England's away leaks, makes a 2-2 draw the likeliest outcome. The main threat to this scenario is New England's occasionally blunt away attack, but the underlying rates and recent patterns point to a match where neither side is likely to control proceedings for long.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
DC United vs New England Revolution Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind DC United vs New England Revolution that most previews miss.
- 1DC United's home matches have averaged 3.78 goals per game this season (15 scored, 19 conceded in 9).
- 2Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of their combined last 10 matches.
- 3The last 5 DC United matches have all seen both teams score, with an average of 3.8 total goals per game.
Who do you think wins: DC United vs New England Revolution?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: DC United vs New England Revolution(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.65
The model assigns a 32% probability to the draw, higher than the 28% implied by the odds. Both teams have drawn 8 and 3 of 18 matches respectively, and DC United have drawn 4 of their last 5. The statistical profile points to a high-scoring stalemate.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.6
Both teams to score has landed in all of DC United's last 5 matches, and their season BTTS rate is high. New England have scored in 4 of their last 5 and DC United have failed to keep a clean sheet in that span.
Read more ↓
More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This DC United vs New England Revolution Prediction
This fixture profiles as a high-variance contest between a DC United side that cannot keep a clean sheet and a New England team with a leaky away defence but superior overall record. Both teams' season scoring and concession rates, especially in their respective home and away splits, point to an open game with a strong likelihood of goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →DC United have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them.
- →New England Revolution's away record is poor (1W, 2D, 4L; 7 scored, 13 conceded), despite sitting 3rd in the table.
Match Context
- →Both teams have a season over 2.5 goals rate above 55% and DC United's last 5 have all seen BTTS.
🚩 DC United vs New England Revolution Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for DC United and 5.3 for New England Revolution, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 78% · Over 10.5: 56%.
How DC United and New England Revolution Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
DC United vs New England Revolution Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
DC Unitedlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
DC United are unbeaten in their last five but have drawn four, with a consistent attacking output (2.0 goals per game) offset by defensive issues (1.8 conceded per game). New England Revolution have been inconsistent, winning just one of their last five (LDWDL), and their away form (1W in 7) is a clear weakness compared to their strong home record.
DC United vs New England Revolution — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
What History Says: DC United vs New England Revolution
New England have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters, including 3 of the last 4 at Audi Field. However, the last three meetings in Washington have all seen both teams score, and the most recent fixture was a narrow 1-0 win for DC United in New England.
DC United vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
DC United wins
1
Draws
6
New England Revolution wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: DC United vs New England Revolution
The draw is overpriced at 3.6, with the model assigning a 32% probability versus the 28% implied by the odds. Both teams to score also carries a modest edge, with recent form and season-long rates supporting a higher probability than the market. Over 2.5 goals is slightly undervalued but less so than the draw or BTTS markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: DC United vs New England Revolution
- ⚠️DC United's defensive volatility introduces risk to correct score and under markets.
- ⚠️New England's away attack has underperformed relative to their home form, adding uncertainty to their goal output.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not yet available and late changes could impact expected goals.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
DC United 2–2 New England RevolutionA 2-2 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by both teams' high scoring and concession rates and DC United's run of draws. The strongest data point is DC United's 100% BTTS rate in their last five, but the main risk is New England's away attack failing to match their home output.
DC United vs New England Revolution: Common Questions
Who will win DC United vs New England Revolution?
The model gives DC United a 36% chance to win, New England a 32% chance, and a draw 32%. Both teams' recent form and high draw rates suggest a stalemate is slightly more likely than the market implies.
Will both teams score in DC United vs New England Revolution?
There is a 68% probability of both teams scoring, with DC United's last 5 matches all landing BTTS and neither side showing defensive solidity in recent weeks.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for DC United vs New England Revolution?
The model estimates a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than the 59% implied by the current odds. Both teams have over 55% of matches going over this line this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for DC United vs New England Revolution: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More DC United vs New England Revolution Resources
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DC United vs New England Revolution Stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results