Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Degerfors IF
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Hammarby FF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Hammarby Edge Degerfors with Second-Half Strike at Stora Valla
Hammarby FF secured a narrow but deserved 1-0 victory over Degerfors IF at Stora Valla, thanks to a decisive goal just after halftime. The visitors dominated much of the proceedings, particularly in terms of possession and attacking threat, but were made to work hard by a resolute Degerfors defense. Despite Degerfors' five-man backline, Hammarby’s persistent pressure finally paid off early in the second half, and the hosts could not muster a response. The match saw Hammarby control 57% of the ball and fire 17 shots, 12 of which were on target, compared to Degerfors’ meager 1 shot on target from 9 attempts. Both sides picked up two yellow cards in a physical encounter, but it was Hammarby’s clinical edge and superior midfield control that ultimately separated the teams.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
46' — Goal
P. Abraham scores for Hammarby FF, breaking the deadlock just after halftime.
54' — Yellow Card
Degerfors IF player booked as frustration grows following the goal.
67' — Yellow Card
Hammarby FF cautioned for a tactical foul as Degerfors attempt to counter.
Degerfors IF
Degerfors set up in a defensive 5-3-2 formation, clearly aiming to frustrate Hammarby and hit on the break. While their defensive organization held firm for much of the first half, they struggled to transition into attack, registering just one shot on target all game. After conceding early in the second half, Degerfors pushed forward but lacked the creativity and cutting edge to trouble the visitors’ goal. Their high foul count (18) and lack of attacking threat highlighted a difficult afternoon, as Hammarby’s midfield dominance left Degerfors chasing shadows for long spells.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF approached the match with a 4-1-4-1 setup, looking to control possession and stretch Degerfors’ compact defense. Their dominance was clear in the statistics: 57% possession and a remarkable 12 shots on target from 17 attempts. The breakthrough came just after the interval, as Hammarby’s relentless pressure finally told. Though they might have hoped for a more comfortable margin, Hammarby’s midfield and attacking lines worked cohesively to create chances, and their back line dealt capably with Degerfors’ limited forays forward.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Degerfors IF’s 5-3-2 formation was designed to absorb pressure, with a deep defensive line and compact midfield. While this stifled Hammarby in the opening period, it left Degerfors isolated up front and unable to build meaningful attacks. Hammarby, by contrast, used their 4-1-4-1 to control the midfield, with the lone pivot shielding the defense and the advanced midfielders interchanging to create overloads out wide and through the center. After taking the lead, Hammarby remained disciplined, occasionally dropping deeper to protect their advantage but still looking dangerous on the break. Substitutions from both sides did little to alter the tactical balance, as Degerfors struggled to break down Hammarby’s well-drilled shape.
Turning Point
P. Abraham’s goal in the 46th minute, which forced Degerfors to abandon their defensive posture and chase the game.
Man of the Match
P. Abraham
Scored the decisive goal and was a constant threat in attack, leading the line with energy and purpose.
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF: Match Preview
Degerfors IF enter this round in 14th place, just above the relegation zone, with a patchy record of five wins and four draws from 20 matches. Their recent form (WLLWW) includes a pair of convincing home victories, but their overall goal difference remains a worrying -12. Hammarby FF, by contrast, are third in the table with 37 points and have lost just once in their last five league games, boasting the division’s second-best attack with 45 goals scored.
The statistical profile points to a high-scoring contest. Degerfors concede 1.55 goals per game and keep clean sheets in only 15% of matches, while Hammarby’s attack is relentless, averaging 2.25 goals per match and 22.4 shots per game over their last five. Hammarby’s away defence is more porous (14 conceded in 10), and Degerfors have scored in 8 of 10 home matches, suggesting both teams can contribute. Set-piece metrics are also notable: both sides average over four corners per game, and the combined cards rate projects over four bookings.
The model expects Hammarby’s attacking firepower and historical dominance in this fixture to be decisive. Degerfors’ defensive vulnerability, especially against high-volume attacks, makes a 2-1 away win the most probable outcome. However, Hammarby’s away inconsistency and Degerfors’ improved recent home displays mean a closer contest cannot be ruled out.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF that most previews miss.
- 1Hammarby’s away matches average 2.8 goals per game (14 scored, 14 conceded in 10).
- 2Degerfors have scored in 8 of 10 home matches but kept just 2 home clean sheets all season.
- 3Across the last 9 H2H meetings, Hammarby have scored at least twice in 7 matches.
Who do you think wins: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have strong over 2.5 goal rates (Degerfors 45%, Hammarby 55%), and their combined season scoring/conceding rates project 2.7–2.8 goals per game. Hammarby average 2.25 scored and 0.95 conceded per match, while Degerfors concede 1.55 per game.
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Match Result: Hammarby FF Win
Hammarby have a +26 goal difference, 11 wins from 20, and have won 7 of the last 9 H2H meetings. Degerfors have lost over half their matches and have a -12 goal difference.
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More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF Prediction
This is a meeting between a relegation-threatened Degerfors side (14th, 19 points) and a Hammarby team pushing at the top end of the table (3rd, 37 points). Degerfors have shown some recent fight with two wins in their last three, but their season-long numbers remain weak, particularly at the back. Hammarby arrive with the league's second-best attack (45 goals in 20) and a positive away record, though their away results are less dominant than at home. Statistically, the game projects as above average for goals. Degerfors concede 1.55 per match and score just under one, while Hammarby average 2.25 scored and 0.95 conceded. Hammarby’s shot volume is exceptional (22.4 per game last five), and their last five matches have seen them average 2.4 goals scored. Degerfors have failed to score in two of their last five, but do show some home punch, netting 11 in 10 at Stora Valla. Hammarby’s away defence is only average (14 conceded in 10), suggesting Degerfors could find the net. The model expects Hammarby’s attacking quality and historical dominance in this fixture to tell, but not without resistance. Degerfors' defensive frailty and Hammarby’s high shot output point to a 2–1 away win, with the likeliest alternate being a 2–0. The most plausible deviation is Degerfors nicking a point if Hammarby’s away inconsistency resurfaces.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Hammarby have won 7 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings, including a 4-0 win in July.
Defence
- →Hammarby average 2.25 goals scored per match, Degerfors concede 1.55 per match.
- →Degerfors have only kept clean sheets in 15% of matches; Hammarby have scored in every away game but one.
🚩 Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Degerfors IF and 6 for Hammarby FF, for an expected total of 11.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 61%.
How Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Degerfors IFlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Hammarby FFlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Degerfors have won two of their last three league matches, both at home, but their overall form remains volatile with three defeats in the last five. Hammarby are unbeaten in four of their last five, including three wins, and have averaged 2.4 goals per game over that stretch. The momentum and underlying numbers both favour the visitors.
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
What History Says: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning seven of the last nine encounters and drawing the other two. They won the reverse fixture 4-0 in July and have scored at least twice in seven of those meetings. Degerfors have not beaten Hammarby in this period, and the average H2H scoreline is heavily in Hammarby’s favour.
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Degerfors IF wins
2
Draws
8
Hammarby FF wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF
With no bookmaker odds available, it is not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. However, the model’s probabilities strongly favour Hammarby and the over 2.5 goals market, both supported by season-long rates and head-to-head history. If odds become available, these markets should be scrutinised for potential value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Degerfors’ recent home form is improved, but small sample sizes can mislead.
- ⚠️Hammarby’s away record (3-3-4) is less dominant than their overall numbers suggest.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Degerfors IF 1–2 Hammarby FFThe model projects a 2-1 win for Hammarby FF, driven primarily by their 2.25 goals per game average and Degerfors’ 1.55 conceded per match. The strongest single data point is Hammarby’s sustained attacking output, especially against weaker defences. The main risk is Hammarby’s less convincing away record (3 wins in 10), which could allow Degerfors to take something if they convert their chances.
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF: Common Questions
Who will win Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF are clear statistical favourites with a 58% win probability, compared to 16% for Degerfors and 26% for the draw. Hammarby’s superior goal difference (+26) and dominant head-to-head record support the model’s call.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Degerfors vs Hammarby?
The model gives a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals, based on both teams’ high season scoring/conceding rates and Hammarby’s 55% over 2.5 record. Degerfors’ defensive record and Hammarby’s attacking numbers both point to a goal-rich game.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Both teams to score is rated at 54% probability. Degerfors have scored in 80% of their home games, while Hammarby have scored in 90% of away matches, making BTTS a slightly favoured outcome.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.