Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Hammarby FF
Full Time
4 - 0
AI predicted 3 - 1
Degerfors IF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 1.95(+5% edge)
Match Result
8.2/10Hammarby FF Run Riot with 4-0 Rout Over Degerfors IF in Stockholm
Hammarby FF delivered a commanding performance at the 3Arena, sweeping aside Degerfors IF with a resounding 4-0 victory. Dominating possession with 64% and peppering the opposition goal with 20 shots—11 of them on target—the hosts were relentless in attack and clinical in front of goal. The breakthrough came late in the first half and was followed by a devastating 10-minute spell in the second half that saw three more goals fly past a beleaguered Degerfors defense. Degerfors, meanwhile, struggled to impose themselves, managing just one shot on target from eight attempts and spending much of the match on the back foot. Hammarby’s attacking quartet, marshaled by Nahir Besara and Paulos Abraham, repeatedly found gaps in the visitors’ 4-3-3 setup, while the home defense remained largely untroubled. The result cements Hammarby’s status as a force to be reckoned with in the Allsvenskan this season.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
3 - 1
Actual
4 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
40' — Goal
Hammarby open the scoring, breaking Degerfors' resistance just before halftime.
69' — Goal
Hammarby double their lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
73' — Goal
A third goal for Hammarby puts the result beyond doubt.
75' — Goal
Hammarby add a fourth, completing a ruthless 10-minute spell.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Degerfors pick up their only booking of the match, reflecting their frustration.
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF were in total control from start to finish, dictating the tempo and suffocating Degerfors with their high pressing and incisive passing. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield and attack, with the likes of Nahir Besara and Victor Lind orchestrating play. The hosts’ patient build-up paid off, as they broke the deadlock in the 40th minute and then unleashed a flurry of goals in the second half to put the result beyond doubt. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, with Warner Hahn enjoying a quiet afternoon between the posts.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF were second best throughout, unable to cope with Hammarby’s intensity or find any rhythm in possession. Their 4-3-3 formation was overrun in midfield, and the front three were starved of service, resulting in just one shot on target all afternoon. Defensively, they struggled to contain Hammarby’s movement, especially after the break, and a solitary yellow card summed up their frustration. The visitors will need to regroup quickly after this chastening defeat.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hammarby’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield, with two holding players providing security and the trio behind the striker interchanging positions to create overloads. Their high pressing forced Degerfors into errors and limited the visitors’ ability to build from the back. The home side’s width stretched Degerfors’ back line, opening spaces for central runners. Set pieces and quick transitions were also a threat, as evidenced by the flurry of second-half goals. Degerfors’ 4-3-3 struggled to gain a foothold, with their midfield outnumbered and unable to link up with the attack. The lack of attacking support meant their front three were isolated, and defensive lapses were ruthlessly punished by Hammarby’s movement and passing combinations.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 40th minute broke Degerfors’ resistance and set the stage for Hammarby’s second-half onslaught.
Man of the Match
Nahir Besara
Orchestrated the attack with vision and creativity, playing a key role in multiple goals.
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF: Match Preview
Hammarby arrive in the capital on a three-match winning streak, having dispatched Kalmar 2-0 at home and Elfsborg away in their last two league outings. Their 7-1-1 home record, underpinned by 22 goals scored in Stockholm, has propelled them to second in the table. Degerfors, by contrast, sit 13th and have taken just one point from their last four league matches, but their away record (1-2-2, 6:6) is less disastrous than their overall form suggests.
Statistically, this is a clash between the league's most potent home attack and a Degerfors side that has struggled for clean sheets, conceding 1.8 per game over their last five. Hammarby average 14.4 shots and 5.6 on target per match recently, while Degerfors' defensive discipline has wavered (1.8 yellows per game, 22 fouls in their last away outing). Notably, Hammarby have seen both teams score in four of their last five, and Degerfors have scored in three of five despite poor results.
The model expects Hammarby to dictate proceedings, likely taking an early lead given their 5 first-half goals in the last five matches. However, Degerfors' ability to create chances and the recurring BTTS trend in this fixture make a 3-1 home win the likeliest outcome. The edge lies in the goal markets, where the probability of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring is higher than the market's current stance.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF
The market makes Hammarby overwhelming favourites at 1.27, but the model's 74% win probability is only marginally above the 79% implied, suggesting little value in the home win. The more interesting edges are in the goal markets: both teams to score and over 2.5 goals both offer a small positive expected value, with recent trends and H2H history supporting higher goal expectations than the odds imply.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 1.95
Four of Hammarby's last five have seen both teams score, and Degerfors have failed to score in only two of their last five despite poor results. Model probability (54%) slightly exceeds the implied probability (51%) at current odds, offering a small positive edge.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.53
Hammarby average 2.2 goals scored per game across their last five and have hit over 2.5 in 54% of league matches. Degerfors concede 1.8 per game recently, so the model's 68% probability edges the market's 65% implied.
Read more ↓
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF that most previews miss.
- 1Hammarby have scored three or more in four of their last five home games against Degerfors.
- 2Degerfors have received at least one booking in every away league match this season, averaging 1.8 yellow cards per game recently.
- 3Across both teams' last five league games, 70% have gone over 2.5 goals.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.60
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 2-1 · 3-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
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The Case For This Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF Prediction
Bookmakers have Hammarby as overwhelming favourites, but the data points to a slightly more competitive fixture than the market suggests. Hammarby's attacking numbers at home are imposing, but Degerfors' underlying metrics hint at a greater threat than their league position implies, especially going forward. The main edge lies in the goal markets, where both teams' recent patterns and defensive frailties make the overs and BTTS lines more attractive than the outright result.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head history is lopsided: Hammarby have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, but Degerfors have scored in 5 of those.
Attack
- →Hammarby have scored 22 goals in 7 home matches (3.14 per game), the league's most prolific home attack.
Defence
- →Degerfors have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league matches and concede 1.8 per game recently.
🚩 Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Hammarby FF and 4.6 for Degerfors IF, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hammarby FFlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Degerfors IFlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hammarby are in the midst of a three-match winning run, including back-to-back league victories over Kalmar and Elfsborg, and have scored at least twice in four of their last five. Degerfors, meanwhile, are struggling for momentum with two straight league defeats and just one win in their last five, though they have managed to find the net in most outings. The form trajectory points clearly towards the hosts.
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF
Hammarby have dominated this fixture historically, winning six of the last eight meetings and scoring three or more in half of those. Degerfors have rarely left Stockholm with points but have managed to score in five of the last six encounters, suggesting their attack is rarely completely blunted in this matchup.
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
7
Hammarby FF wins
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF wins
Things to Watch: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF
- ⚠️Degerfors' away defensive record is better than their overall numbers (6 conceded in 5 away), creating some uncertainty in goal expectation.
- ⚠️Hammarby's recent three-match winning streak includes a friendly; competitive form is strong but not flawless.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are unconfirmed and could impact attacking output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hammarby FF 3–1 Degerfors IFThe model projects a 3-1 win for Hammarby, anchored by their league-best home attack (3.14 goals per game) and Degerfors' inability to keep opponents out. The main risk is Degerfors' slightly better away defensive record, which could keep the scoreline closer if Hammarby are wasteful or rotate. The strongest data edge is in the goal markets, where both teams' recent BTTS and over 2.5 trends outpace bookmaker expectations.
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF: Common Questions
Who will win Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Hammarby are strong favourites with a 74% model probability to win, reflecting their dominant home form and the head-to-head record (6 wins in 8). Degerfors have just a 9% chance, with a draw at 17%.
Will both teams score in Hammarby vs Degerfors?
The model gives a 54% chance for both teams to score, slightly above the market's implied 51%. Four of Hammarby's last five and three of Degerfors' last five league games have seen BTTS land.
Is there value in betting on over 2.5 goals?
Yes, the model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% probability, just above the market's 65% implied. Both teams' recent matches have trended high-scoring, with 70% of their combined last ten league games going over 2.5.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.