Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Deportivo La Coruna
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Osasuna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.2(+9% edge)
Recommended Bets: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: Match Preview
Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna arrive level on points (11) and next to each other in the table, both seeking to break out of mid-table congestion. Deportivo have been difficult to beat at home but rarely convincing, drawing three of five at Riazor and winning just once, while Osasuna's away form is undermined by a leaky defence (15 conceded in four away games), though their recent win over Racing Santander may offer a slight confidence boost.
From a statistical perspective, the matchup is defined by moderate attacking output and defensive inconsistencies. Deportivo average 1.3 goals scored and conceded per league game, with their last five matches showing a 1.2/2.0 split. Osasuna's away numbers are more extreme, conceding 3.75 per away game, but this is inflated by two heavy losses; their last five overall average 1.0 scored and 2.4 conceded. Both sides have been more productive after half-time (Depor: 4 second-half goals in last 5, Osasuna: 3), and corners and cards rates are moderate (Depor 3.4 corners, 1.6 yellows per last 5; Osasuna 3.6 corners, 2.8 yellows).
The model expects this to translate into a cagey, low-scoring affair where neither side can dominate for long stretches. With both teams' draw rates high (Depor 5/10, Osasuna 2/9), and underlying shot and goal figures closely matched, the likeliest outcome is a 1-1 draw, with under 2.5 goals also well supported by the data. The main risk to this view is Osasuna's defensive volatility away from home.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna that most previews miss.
- 1Deportivo have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 10 league matches this season.
- 2Osasuna's away matches average 5.25 total goals, but this is skewed by two matches where they conceded 4 and 5 respectively.
- 3Four of Deportivo's five home league matches have finished under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.24
Both sides have identical points (11), nearly identical scoring/conceding rates (Depor 1.3/1.3, Osasuna 1.11/2), and a high draw rate for Deportivo (5 in 10 league matches), with neither attack showing sustained superiority.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.67
Deportivo's home matches average 2.2 goals (6 for, 5 against in 5), Osasuna away average 5.25 (6 for, 15 against in 4), but both teams' recent matches trend under (Depor last 5: 3/5 under 2.5, Osasuna: 3/5), and both show limited attacking efficiency.
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The Case For This Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a low-scoring, closely-matched contest between two sides with nearly identical league records and a history of stalemates. Deportivo's home record (1W, 3D, 1L) and Osasuna's away frailty (1W, 3L, 15 conceded in 4) are offset by the hosts' blunt attack and the visitors' occasional defensive resilience. The model expects neither side to sustain pressure long enough to force a decisive advantage, with the draw a notably probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams have 11 points and sit mid-table, with little to separate them in underlying shot and goal metrics.
Defence
- →Osasuna have conceded 15 goals in 4 away league matches but have also scored in 3 of those games.
Match Context
- →Deportivo have drawn 5 of 10 league matches and average 1.3 goals for and against per game.
🚩 Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Deportivo La Coruna and 3.8 for Osasuna, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Deportivo La Corunalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Osasunalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Deportivo's recent form is patchy, with no wins in their last five competitive matches (LDLLD) and a tendency to draw (five in ten league games). Osasuna broke a three-game losing streak with a home win last time out but have struggled for consistency, particularly away from home where they've lost three of four.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
The head-to-head record is balanced, with both sides winning three of the last nine and three draws. Riazor has seen Deportivo win the last two meetings, but overall, draws and low-scoring games (including two goalless draws) are frequent between these teams.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
Deportivo La Coruna wins
3
Draws
3
Osasuna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
The model finds value in the draw at 3.20 (model probability 34% vs implied 31%) and under 2.5 goals at 1.67 (model 64% vs implied 60%). Both are supported by the underlying rates—Deportivo's high draw rate and the low-scoring trend in their home matches.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
- ⚠️Osasuna's away defence has shown volatility, with two heavy defeats skewing their goals against average.
- ⚠️Deportivo's lack of clean sheets (0% this season) increases the risk of BTTS despite low overall scoring rates.
- ⚠️Limited recent head-to-head data (last meeting 2021) reduces confidence in H2H trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 OsasunaThe most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' nearly identical points, goal rates, and a high incidence of draws in Deportivo's season (50% of league matches). The key risk is Osasuna's away defence, which has been exposed for heavy defeats—if they collapse again, the match could tip towards a higher scoreline or a home win.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: Common Questions
Who will win Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
The model gives Deportivo a 39% chance, Osasuna a 27% chance, and the draw a 34% chance. Both teams have 11 points and similar goal records, making a draw the most probable result.
Will both teams score in Deportivo vs Osasuna?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with neither side keeping many clean sheets (Deportivo 0% this season, Osasuna 33%). However, blunt attacking spells and a tendency for low-scoring games keep this below 50%.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Deportivo vs Osasuna?
Under 2.5 goals is given a 64% probability by the model, with four of Deportivo's five home league games and three of Osasuna's last five overall finishing under this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.