Derby County W vs Bolton W Predictions
FA Women's Cup · England
Derby County W
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
Bolton W
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Derby County W vs Bolton W
Derby County W vs Bolton W: Match Preview
Derby County W come into this FA Women's Cup fixture with a mixed run of form, alternating heavy defeats and convincing wins in their last five. Their 2.4 goals scored per game in this stretch is offset by 2.6 conceded, underlining a high-scoring but defensively suspect profile. Bolton W, meanwhile, have a limited recent sample but recorded a 3-1 away win in their last outing, following a heavy 0-8 defeat the previous season, highlighting their volatility and the unpredictable nature of knockout football at this level.
Statistically, both teams show a clear tendency towards open matches. Derby's last five have produced an average of 5 goals per game, with both teams scoring in three of those. Bolton's defensive record is patchy, conceding 4.5 per game across their last two, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in their recent cup campaigns. With no reliable home/away splits or set-piece data, the matchup is best defined by these raw scoring and concession rates.
Given these numbers, the model expects a goal-rich contest with both sides likely to find the net. The predicted scoreline of 2-2 reflects the attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities on display, with a 68% probability assigned to over 2.5 goals and 65% to both teams scoring. The lack of league context and head-to-head data adds uncertainty, but the available evidence points to an open, competitive tie.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Derby County W vs Bolton W Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Derby County W vs Bolton W that most previews miss.
- 1Derby County W's last five matches have averaged exactly 5 goals per game, with only one clean sheet in that span.
- 2Bolton W have conceded 9 goals in their last two FA Women's Cup appearances, but also scored 3 in their most recent outing.
- 3Both sides have a 0% clean sheet rate in their season records, increasing the likelihood of BTTS.
Who do you think wins: Derby County W vs Bolton W?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Derby County W vs Bolton W(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have high recent scoring and concession rates, with Derby County W averaging 2.4 scored and 2.6 conceded per game in their last five, and Bolton W conceding 4.5 per game over their last two, supporting a 68% model probability for over 2.5 goals.
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BTTS: Yes
Derby County W have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, while Bolton W have scored in their last outing and Derby have failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of 5, resulting in a 65% probability for BTTS.
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More FA Women's Cup Predictions
The Case For This Derby County W vs Bolton W Prediction
The data points to a high-variance cup tie, with both Derby County W and Bolton W showing recent attacking output but also defensive fragility. Derby's last five matches average 5 goals per game combined, while Bolton's limited sample includes a 3-1 win and a heavy 0-8 defeat, suggesting volatility. With no league table or head-to-head data, the model leans on these scoring rates and home/away splits, which are inconclusive but suggest goals are likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Derby County W average 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game in their last five matches.
- →Both teams have a 0% clean sheet rate in their current season records.
Match Context
- →Bolton W's only recent cup match was a 3-1 away win, but their prior cup match was an 0-8 loss.
How Derby County W and Bolton W Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Derby County W vs Bolton W Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Derby County Wlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Bolton Wlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Derby County W's recent form is marked by inconsistency, with two wins and three losses in their last five, including a 6-0 away win and a 1-5 home defeat. Bolton W have played just two recent cup matches, bouncing back from an 0-8 loss to secure a 3-1 win away from home, suggesting a side capable of both extremes.
Derby County W vs Bolton W — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 4.5 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Things to Watch: Derby County W vs Bolton W
- ⚠️No league standings or head-to-head data available, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes for both teams' recent matches, especially for Bolton W.
- ⚠️Absence of bookmaker odds prevents calculation of value edges.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Derby County W 2–2 Bolton WA 2-2 draw is the model's baseline, driven by Derby County W's high combined goals average and Bolton W's recent volatility in both attack and defence. The single strongest data point is Derby's 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game across their last five. The primary risk is the small sample size for Bolton W, which could mask a wider gap in quality or defensive solidity.
Derby County W vs Bolton W: Common Questions
Who will win Derby County W vs Bolton W?
The model rates this as a near 50-50 contest, with probabilities of 32% for a Derby win, 32% for Bolton, and 36% for a draw. The predicted scoreline is 2-2, reflecting both sides' recent attacking output and defensive issues.
Will both teams score in Derby County W vs Bolton W?
There is a 65% probability that both teams will score, with Derby failing to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five and Bolton conceding in both recent cup matches.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Derby County W vs Bolton W?
The model assigns a 68% probability to over 2.5 goals, based on Derby's 2.4 scored and 2.6 conceded per game in their last five, and Bolton's high concession rate.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Derby County W vs Bolton W: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.