Derby vs Wrexham Predictions
Championship · England
Derby
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Wrexham
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Wrexham Win
@ 2.35(+8% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Late Moore Strike Earns Wrexham Dramatic Point at Derby
Derby County were denied all three points at Pride Park as Wrexham’s Kieffer Moore struck late to snatch a 1-1 draw in a tense Championship encounter. The hosts took an early lead through Conor Morris in the ninth minute and appeared to be in control for much of the match, but a resilient Wrexham side grew into the game, dominating possession and piling on pressure as the clock ticked down. Despite Derby’s disciplined defensive display and a standout performance from their midfield, Wrexham’s persistence finally paid off in the 88th minute when Moore found the net, silencing the home crowd. The visitors’ superior possession and set-piece threat, evidenced by their nine corners, eventually told as Derby’s resistance was broken late on, leaving both sides to settle for a point that reflected their contrasting approaches.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
9' — Goal
C. Morris finishes off a swift Derby attack to give the hosts an early lead.
45' — Yellow Card
A. Mowatt (Derby) booked for a tactical foul to halt a Wrexham break.
63' — Yellow Card
D. Sanderson (Derby) shown yellow for a late challenge.
70' — Corner
Wrexham pile on pressure with a series of corners, testing Derby’s defense.
88' — Goal
K. Moore levels for Wrexham, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
Derby
Derby started brightly, capitalizing on their early momentum with a well-worked goal from Conor Morris. Lining up in a 4-2-3-1, they pressed effectively in the opening stages and looked organized at the back. However, as the match wore on, Derby ceded possession and found themselves increasingly under pressure, struggling to create clear chances after their opener and registering just one corner all game. Their midfield worked hard to disrupt Wrexham’s rhythm, but a lack of attacking thrust in the second half allowed the visitors to dictate play and eventually find an equalizer.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Wrexham
Wrexham responded well to going behind early, growing into the match with a patient, possession-based approach. Their 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to control midfield and stretch Derby’s defense, especially in the second half. Despite struggling to convert their dominance into clear-cut chances for much of the game, their persistence was rewarded when Kieffer Moore struck in the 88th minute. Wrexham’s set-piece threat was notable, with nine corners and sustained pressure that eventually broke Derby’s resistance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Derby’s 4-2-3-1 provided early solidity and allowed them to press high, but as Wrexham settled, the home side found themselves dropping deeper, unable to retain possession or build sustained attacks. The midfield duo of Mowatt and Ozoh worked tirelessly but were eventually overrun by Wrexham’s extra man in midfield. Wrexham’s 3-4-2-1 formation gave them width and numerical superiority in the center, allowing them to dominate possession and create overloads, especially as Derby retreated. Their use of set pieces, especially corners, was a key tactical weapon, and their late substitutions injected fresh energy that helped force the equalizer.
Turning Point
Kieffer Moore’s 88th-minute equalizer, capping off Wrexham’s relentless late pressure.
Man of the Match
K. Moore
His late goal salvaged a point for Wrexham and capped an industrious display up front.
Derby vs Wrexham: Match Preview
Derby enter this match struggling at the foot of the table, sitting 22nd with just five points from eight games and winless at home (0W, 1D, 3L). Wrexham, in mid-table on ten points, have lost just twice all season and arrive off a morale-boosting win over Southampton. The gap in league position reflects Derby’s poor recent form, with just one point from their last four outings.
The statistical matchup leans towards goals: Derby’s matches have seen an average of 2.63 goals, with 62.5% finishing over 2.5, while Wrexham’s away games average 2.75 goals. Derby’s attack has struggled (0.88 goals per game), but their defence is leakier still (1.75 conceded per game). Wrexham’s attack is more productive at 1.13 goals per game, but their defence is also suspect, conceding 1.5 per match. Both sides have failed to keep clean sheets in three of their last five, and Derby’s home xGA is among the league’s highest.
The model expects Wrexham’s more balanced attack and Derby’s defensive issues to tilt the contest in the visitors’ favour, with a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome. However, Derby’s home matches also show a high draw rate, so a share of the points remains plausible if Wrexham’s finishing falters. The underlying rates point to a match with above-average goal expectancy and a significant away edge.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Derby vs Wrexham Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Derby vs Wrexham that most previews miss.
- 1Derby have conceded at least two goals in 75% of their home games this season.
- 2Wrexham's last five away matches in all competitions have averaged 2.5 total goals.
- 3Both teams have scored in both recent head-to-head meetings.
Who do you think wins: Derby vs Wrexham?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Derby vs Wrexham(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Wrexham Win@ 2.49
Wrexham's away win probability is 46% by the model, compared to 42.6% implied by the odds, with Derby winless at home (0W, 1D, 3L, 3 scored, 8 conceded) and Wrexham showing a more balanced away record (1W, 2D, 1L, 4 scored, 7 conceded).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2
Derby matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 62.5% of games this season, and both teams average at least 1.5 goals conceded per match, supporting an above-average goal environment.
Read more ↓
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Derby vs Wrexham Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a higher-than-average goal environment between two sides with defensive vulnerabilities. Derby's home record is among the league's weakest, while Wrexham's away numbers are competitive. The underlying rates point to Wrexham as the more likely winner, but the draw remains a significant runner given both sides' frequency of stalemates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Derby have failed to win any of their four home matches, conceding eight goals.
- →Wrexham's away record is balanced (1W, 2D, 1L), with four goals scored and seven conceded.
- →Both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per game this season.
🚩 Derby vs Wrexham Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Derby and 5.3 for Wrexham, for an expected total of 11.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (71%). Over 8.5: 81% · Over 10.5: 60%.
How Derby and Wrexham Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Derby vs Wrexham Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Derbylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wrexhamlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derby’s recent form is concerning, with just one win in their last eight and a home record of three losses and one draw, conceding two goals per game at Pride Park. Wrexham have shown more stability, losing only once in their last five and picking up four points from their last two away matches.
Derby vs Wrexham — Last 9 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Derby vs Wrexham
Wrexham are unbeaten in the last two meetings, including a 2-1 win at Derby last season. Both matches saw both sides find the net, suggesting a competitive fixture with goals at both ends.
Derby vs Wrexham Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
0
Derby wins
2
Draws
1
Wrexham wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Derby vs Wrexham
The model finds value in the away win at 2.35, with a model probability of 46% versus 42.6% implied by the odds. Over 2.5 goals is also marginal value, with a model edge of 8% over the bookmaker’s line. No clear value on the draw or home win at current prices.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Derby vs Wrexham
- ⚠️Small sample size on head-to-head (only two recent meetings).
- ⚠️Both sides have shown volatility in defensive performances, raising variance in goal markets.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Derby 1–2 WrexhamWrexham are rated 46% likely to take all three points, with Derby’s home defensive record (eight conceded in four) the single strongest data point. The main risk is Wrexham’s own defensive volatility and Derby’s tendency to draw at home, which could see the points shared if chances aren’t converted.
Derby vs Wrexham: Common Questions
Who will win Derby vs Wrexham?
Wrexham are the statistical favourites with a 46% win probability, compared to 23% for Derby and 31% for the draw. Derby’s poor home form and Wrexham’s more balanced away record drive this edge.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model gives a 54% probability to over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging over 1.5 goals conceded per game and Derby’s matches going over 2.5 in 62.5% of cases this season.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?
Both teams to score is rated at 52% probability. Both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their last five games, and both recent head-to-heads saw goals at both ends.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Derby vs Wrexham: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.