Eibar vs Almeria Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Eibar
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Almeria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Almeria Win
Recommended Bets: Eibar vs Almeria
Eibar vs Almeria: Match Preview
Both Eibar and Almeria enter this fixture among the league’s form sides, but it’s the visitors who arrive with a statement of intent after five consecutive wins. Almeria have surged to the top of the table, collecting 24 points from 10 matches and outscoring all but one rival, while Eibar’s own run of three wins from their last five has kept them firmly in the promotion mix. The hosts’ momentum slowed slightly with a 1-1 home draw against Mallorca, but their attacking output remains consistent.
Tactically, this match sets up as a battle between Eibar’s relentless attacking approach and Almeria’s recently reinforced defence. Eibar are averaging 2 goals scored per game this season and have found the net in every league match, but their defensive frailty has been exposed with 1.6 goals conceded per game across their last five. Almeria, by contrast, have tightened up at the back—three clean sheets in their last five—and have been particularly effective away from home, conceding just four goals in five away matches. Both teams are producing high shot and shot-on-target numbers (Eibar 13/5.6, Almeria 15.4/5.8 per game over the last five), suggesting a high-tempo contest.
Given the momentum and balance of recent performances, Almeria’s edge in defensive discipline and ability to strike in transition could prove decisive. Eibar’s inability to keep clean sheets, combined with Almeria’s scoring form (12 goals in their last five), tips the model towards a narrow away victory in a match where both sides are likely to score.
How Eibar and Almeria Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Eibar vs Almeria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Eibarlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almerialast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almeria are the league’s hottest side, racking up five consecutive wins and conceding just three goals in the process, while Eibar’s own form is solid but less spectacular, with three wins, a draw, and a loss in their last five. Both teams are scoring freely—Eibar have 10 goals in their last five, Almeria have 12—but the visitors’ defensive improvement sets them apart.
Eibar vs Almeria — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Eibar vs Almeria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Eibar vs Almeria that most previews miss.
- 1Eibar have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches, with a combined 13 goals conceded and scored in that span.
- 2Almeria have won five straight, keeping three clean sheets and conceding just 0.6 goals per game over that run.
- 3In the last five H2H meetings at Ipurua, Eibar have won four times, with three of those victories by a single-goal margin.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Eibar vs Almeria?
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The Case For This Eibar vs Almeria Prediction
Momentum is the defining feature of this top-three clash, with Almeria riding a perfect five-match winning streak and Eibar’s recent surge checked only by a draw last time out. Both sides have been prolific in attack, but Almeria’s defensive solidity and ruthless finishing on the road have set them apart in the league’s early running.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Almeria’s five-match winning streak, conceding just three goals and scoring 12 in that span.
- →Eibar have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, with both teams scoring in every match.
- →Almeria’s away defensive record: only 4 goals conceded in 5 away games (0.8 per game).
Where the Model Sees Value: Eibar vs Almeria(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Almeria Win
Almeria arrive with a five-match winning streak, conceding just three goals in that run (0.6 per game) and posting the league’s best away defensive record, while Eibar have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and conceded 1.6 goals per game in that stretch.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in all of Eibar’s last five matches and Almeria have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last two away games, with both sides averaging over 2 goals scored per game this season.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Eibar’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 70% of their league fixtures and Almeria’s last two away games have produced 6 and 1 goals respectively, with both teams’ attacks in strong recent form.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
🚩 Eibar vs Almeria Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Eibar and 3.8 for Almeria, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
What History Says: Eibar vs Almeria
Eibar have historically had the upper hand in this fixture at Ipurua, winning four of the last five home meetings, though Almeria did claim a 3-1 away win in the most recent H2H. Tight margins have been a theme, with three of the last five encounters decided by a single goal.
Eibar vs Almeria Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
5
Eibar wins
1
Draws
2
Almeria wins
Things to Watch: Eibar vs Almeria
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams are in strong overall form, increasing draw probability.
- ⚠️Eibar’s home advantage and positive H2H record could disrupt Almeria’s momentum.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Eibar 1–2 AlmeriaAlmeria’s five-match winning streak and outstanding defensive numbers on the road give them the edge, with a 2-1 away win the most likely outcome. The single strongest data point is Almeria’s 0.6 goals conceded per game over their last five, while the main risk is Eibar’s strong home record and their habit of scoring in every match, which could push this towards a draw or high-scoring stalemate.
Eibar vs Almeria: Common Questions
Who will win Eibar vs Almeria?
Almeria are slight favourites with a 41% probability of victory, thanks to their five-match winning streak and defensive strength, while Eibar have a 26% chance and the draw stands at 33%.
Will both teams score in Eibar vs Almeria?
There’s a 66% chance of both teams scoring, as Eibar have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches and Almeria have scored in every away game this season.
Can Almeria’s winning streak continue?
Almeria have won five straight, conceding only three goals in that run, and their away form (three wins in five) supports a strong chance of extending their streak, but Eibar’s home record and attacking output mean it’s far from certain.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Eibar vs Almeria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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