Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
Eintracht Frankfurt
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
FC Augsburg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.9(+13% edge)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg: Match Preview
Frankfurt come into their first home league match of the season off a 3-3 away draw at Union Berlin, following a pre-season that featured both a heavy defeat to Brentford and a double-digit cup win. Augsburg, meanwhile, have yet to play a Bundesliga fixture, but their DFB Pokal win at Energie Cottbus (2-0) and patchy friendly results (including a 4-0 loss at Leeds) suggest a side still searching for rhythm. The league table offers little guidance at this early stage, but Frankfurt's attacking output has been prolific in all competitions.
Statistically, the matchup tilts towards goals: Frankfurt's last five games average 6.4 total goals, while Augsburg's average is also inflated (6.6), though both had friendlies against much weaker opposition. In competitive action, both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities—Frankfurt conceded three at Union Berlin, and Augsburg's friendlies included a 5-2 home defeat to Bournemouth. The H2H record is notable for its frequency of draws (six in ten), and the model sees a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams likely to score at least once.
The model expects Frankfurt's home advantage and recent attacking form to be decisive, but Augsburg's resilience and the H2H draw trend mean a close contest is likely. The predicted scoreline is 2-1 to Frankfurt, but the probability spread leaves the draw as a strong alternative, especially given both teams' defensive inconsistencies and the early-season context.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg that most previews miss.
- 1Six of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended level, with three finishing 1-1.
- 2Frankfurt's last five matches average 6.4 total goals, but their only Bundesliga game was a 3-3 draw.
- 3Augsburg's last five competitive and friendly matches feature two clean sheets and two matches conceding four or more.
Who do you think wins: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.94
The draw probability is estimated at 29% versus an implied 26% from odds of 3.9, with six draws in the last ten H2H meetings and both sides showing limited separation in underlying rates.
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BTTS: No@ 2.68
While both teams have high recent scoring averages, the H2H history features five matches in the last ten where at least one side failed to score, and the model's 40% 'no' probability edges the market.
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More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Prediction
This fixture projects as a balanced, moderately high-scoring contest, with Frankfurt's recent attacking output (4.2 goals per game over their last five) offset by defensive frailty (2.2 conceded per game). Augsburg's own last-five average of 4.4 goals scored is inflated by a friendly outlier, but their competitive matches suggest a less potent threat. The statistical shape is defined by both sides' tendency towards open, error-prone football, but the underlying rates point to a slight edge for the hosts, especially with home advantage and a more settled squad. Tactically, Frankfurt's attack will test an Augsburg defence that has kept two clean sheets in their last five but conceded heavily in friendlies. The model expects the first half to feature at least one goal (73% over 0.5 first-half goals), with Frankfurt more likely to strike first. Both teams average over two goals conceded per game in their last five, and the H2H record shows a bias towards draws and matches with both teams on the scoresheet (six draws in ten, seven BTTS). The likeliest outcome is a narrow Frankfurt win or a draw, with the median scoreline 2-1. The edge for Frankfurt comes from their attacking depth and recent high-scoring results, but Augsburg's resilience and the historic tendency for stalemates keep the draw in play. The model assigns a 46% win probability to Frankfurt, 29% to the draw, and 25% to Augsburg, with over 2.5 goals favoured at 62% probability.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Frankfurt average 4.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game over their last five matches.
- →Augsburg's last five include two clean sheets but also a 4-0 friendly defeat and a 2-0 cup win.
Match Context
- →Six of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, with only one Augsburg win.
🚩 Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Eintracht Frankfurt and 5.3 for FC Augsburg, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Eintracht Frankfurtlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Augsburglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Frankfurt's recent form is marked by volatility: a 3-3 Bundesliga draw, an 11-0 cup rout, and a 0-7 friendly defeat in their last five. Augsburg have mixed results as well, with a 2-0 cup win at Cottbus but heavy friendly losses, indicating inconsistency and some defensive progress. Both sides have scored freely against weaker opposition but shown defensive lapses against stronger teams.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 4.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 4.4 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg
The head-to-head record is striking for its balance: six of the last ten matches have ended in draws, including three 1-1 scorelines. Frankfurt have three wins to Augsburg's one, and seven of the ten saw both teams score. High-scoring games are rare, with only one of the last ten producing more than three goals.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Eintracht Frankfurt wins
6
Draws
1
FC Augsburg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg
The largest model-market divergence is on the draw, where a 29% model probability versus 26% implied by odds of 3.9 creates a 13% edge. There is also slight value on 'BTTS: No' and 'Under 2.5', though the edge is smaller. The model is cautious on the home win, with market and model closely aligned.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg
- ⚠️Both sides' recent averages are skewed by cup and friendly matches against lower-tier opposition.
- ⚠️Augsburg have not played a Bundesliga match yet this season, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️No home/away league splits available for current season; small sample size on competitive fixtures.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 FC AugsburgThe model projects a 2-1 win for Eintracht Frankfurt, driven by their recent attacking output of 4.2 goals per game over the last five matches. The single strongest data point is the prevalence of draws in the H2H (six in ten), which keeps the draw probability high and means the most plausible way this prediction goes wrong is another stalemate, especially with Augsburg's defensive improvements in recent cup action.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg: Common Questions
Who will win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Frankfurt are given a 46% chance of victory, with Augsburg at 25% and the draw at 29%. The model sees a slight edge for the hosts, but the high draw rate in recent head-to-heads keeps this close.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg?
The model estimates a 60% probability of both teams scoring, reflecting both sides' recent defensive records and the H2H trend of seven BTTS results in the last ten meetings.
Is there value in backing the draw for Frankfurt vs Augsburg?
Yes, with the draw probability at 29% and odds of 3.9 (implied 26%), there is a 13% edge. The fixture has ended level in six of the last ten meetings, supporting the value case.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.