Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Erith Town
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Burgess Hill Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Burgess Hill Town Win
Match Result
7.5/10Burgess Hill Town Edge Erith Town in Dramatic FA Trophy Penalty Shootout
In a pulsating FA Trophy clash, Burgess Hill Town emerged victorious over Erith Town after a dramatic penalty shootout, with the final score standing at 4-3 in favour of the visitors. With both sides inseparable after regulation time, the match was ultimately decided from the spot, where Burgess Hill Town held their nerve to progress. Despite the lack of detailed match statistics and goal timings, the contest was clearly a closely-fought affair, with both teams finding the net three times in regular play. The absence of any cards underscored a spirited yet fair encounter, as neither side could find the decisive breakthrough before the lottery of penalties.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 4
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
Full Time' — End of Regulation
Both teams finished level at 3-3 after a thrilling contest.
Penalty Shootout' — Burgess Hill Town win 4-3 on penalties
Burgess Hill Town held their nerve to convert four penalties and seal the win.
Erith Town
Erith Town matched their opponents stride for stride, scoring three goals and pushing the tie all the way to penalties. Their attacking intent was evident, but they ultimately fell short in the high-pressure shootout, ending their FA Trophy run in heartbreak. The team showed resilience and composure throughout regular play, but will rue missed opportunities to seal the win in normal time.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burgess Hill Town
Burgess Hill Town demonstrated determination and composure, matching Erith Town goal for goal before prevailing in the penalty shootout. Their ability to handle the pressure in the shootout was decisive, as they converted four penalties to secure a hard-fought victory. The team’s balanced approach and mental toughness were key factors in their progression.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With no detailed lineup or formation data available, both teams clearly set up to attack, as evidenced by the six goals shared in regular time. The absence of any cards suggests a match played in good spirit, with both sides focusing on open, attacking football rather than physicality. The deadlock after 90 minutes points to evenly matched tactical approaches, with neither side able to exert lasting dominance or defensive control. The shootout became the ultimate test of nerve and execution, where Burgess Hill Town's penalty takers showed greater composure. Without visible tactical changes or substitutions, the match was decided more by mentality than by tactical nuance.
Turning Point
The penalty shootout, where Burgess Hill Town converted four penalties to Erith Town’s three, proved decisive.
Man of the Match
Burgess Hill Town Penalty Takers
Showed nerves of steel to convert under immense pressure and secure the win.
Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town: Match Preview
Erith Town approach this FA Trophy clash with a mixed recent record, alternating wins and losses in their last five outings but maintaining a solid home record—unbeaten in their last two at home with just one goal conceded. Burgess Hill Town, meanwhile, arrive in strong attacking form, netting 14 goals in their last five matches and winning three of those, including a 6-2 FA Trophy victory. The head-to-head record favours the visitors, who have taken three wins from the last four meetings between these sides.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Burgess Hill Town's prolific attack (2.8 goals per game over the last five) against Erith Town's more conservative approach (1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per last five). Burgess Hill Town's games are consistently high-scoring, with 100% of their season matches going over 2.5 goals, while Erith Town's fixtures trend lower-scoring, with none of their three season games exceeding two goals. Both sides have shown a tendency to concede, with just three clean sheets combined in their last ten matches. Set-piece and discipline data are unavailable, limiting deeper tactical inference.
The model expects Burgess Hill Town's superior attacking rates and historical edge to outweigh Erith Town's home advantage, projecting a 2-1 away win. The most likely deviation comes if Erith Town can slow the tempo and keep the first half goalless, but the visitors' recent scoring streak and head-to-head success make them favourites in a match likely to see goals at both ends.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town that most previews miss.
- 1Burgess Hill Town have scored at least twice in four of their last five matches, averaging 2.8 goals per game.
- 2Three of the last four head-to-head meetings have ended with both teams scoring, and two finished 2-1 to Burgess Hill Town.
- 3All of Burgess Hill Town's season matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while none of Erith Town's have.
Who do you think wins: Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Burgess Hill Town Win
Burgess Hill Town have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings and arrive with a five-match average of 2.8 goals scored per game, while Erith Town's home scoring rate stands at just 1.33 per match.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Burgess Hill Town's last five matches have averaged four goals per game, with 100% of their season matches finishing over 2.5 goals, while Erith Town's defensive record is moderate at 1.2 conceded per last five.
Read more ↓
More FA Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town Prediction
Burgess Hill Town's attacking output and head-to-head dominance tilt this tie in their favour, but Erith Town's home resilience and low-scoring tendencies keep the goal environment in check.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Burgess Hill Town average 2.8 goals scored per game over their last five matches.
Defence
- →Erith Town have failed to score in only one of their last five matches and kept two clean sheets.
Match Context
- →Burgess Hill Town have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings.
How Erith Town and Burgess Hill Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Erith Townlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Burgess Hill Townlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Erith Town have alternated wins and losses in their last five, with two clean sheets but also a recent 2-0 FA Cup defeat. Burgess Hill Town are in stronger form, unbeaten in four of their last five and scoring 14 goals in that span, including a 6-2 FA Trophy win. Momentum favours the visitors, who have not failed to score in any of their last five.
Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.8 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town
Burgess Hill Town have a clear historical edge, winning three of the last four meetings, twice by a 2-1 scoreline away from home. The only draw was a 0-0 in 2023, but otherwise both teams have scored in most encounters, suggesting an open contest.
Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
0
Erith Town wins
1
Draws
3
Burgess Hill Town wins
Things to Watch: Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations and expected value are not possible.
- ⚠️Limited season sample for both teams, especially for Burgess Hill Town away (no away league matches played yet).
- ⚠️No detailed match stats (shots, xG, etc.) or lineups available for either team; reliance on goals data only.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Erith Town 1–2 Burgess Hill TownA 2-1 win for Burgess Hill Town is the likeliest outcome, driven by their 2.8 goals per game average in recent matches and a strong head-to-head record. The biggest risk is Erith Town's ability to restrict the tempo and keep the scoring low, as seen in their 33% clean sheet rate and unbeaten home start.
Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town: Common Questions
Who will win Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town?
The model gives Burgess Hill Town a 46% chance of victory, compared to 26% for Erith Town and 28% for a draw. Burgess Hill Town's recent attacking form and head-to-head record make them slight favourites.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town?
There is a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals, based on Burgess Hill Town's 100% over 2.5 rate this season and their average of 2.8 goals scored per game in the last five matches.
Have both teams scored in recent Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town meetings?
Both teams have scored in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, and the model rates BTTS at 54% for this fixture, reflecting both sides' tendency to concede.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Erith Town vs Burgess Hill Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.