ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Metlaoui
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
ES Hammam-Sousse
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse: Match Preview
ES Metlaoui enter this fixture off the back of a narrow 0-1 defeat to Club Africain, extending a run of two straight losses and just one win in their last five across all competitions. Hammam-Sousse, newly promoted, opened their Ligue 1 campaign with a 0-0 home draw and have not lost in three of their last five competitive outings. With both sides in the lower half of the early table and little attacking momentum, the pressure is on to establish a foothold in the season.
Statistically, this matchup projects as a low-event contest. ES Metlaoui's last five games average just 0.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, with three clean sheets but also three blanks in attack. Hammam-Sousse, while more open in their recent Ligue 2 run (1.2 scored, 1.6 conceded per game), have yet to score or concede in Ligue 1 this season. Head-to-head, three of the last six have finished 1-0 or 1-1, and both teams have a history of tight, low-scoring encounters when meeting in Metlaoui.
The model expects a cagey first half, with a 59% chance of under 0.5 first-half goals and a 34% probability of a goalless draw. Hammam-Sousse's slightly better recent attacking output and defensive record tip the balance marginally in their favour, but the most likely scenario remains a single-goal margin or stalemate, with under 2.5 goals the standout probability.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
25%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse that most previews miss.
- 1ES Metlaoui have failed to score in three of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals per game in that span.
- 2Hammam-Sousse's last five matches have seen both teams score four times, but their only Ligue 1 match this season finished 0-0.
- 3Three of the last six head-to-heads have ended either 1-1 or 1-0, highlighting a trend towards low-scoring outcomes.
Who do you think wins: ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have seen under 2.5 goals in their only league matches this season, and the last five for ES Metlaoui average just 1.4 total goals per game, with 72% model probability for 'no' in BTTS and 81% for under 2.5.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw
The model gives a 42% probability to the draw, with both teams showing defensive tendencies and a high incidence of draws in their head-to-head (2 of last 6).
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
ES Metlaoui have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, while Hammam-Sousse kept a clean sheet in their opening league match; model probability for BTTS 'no' is 72%.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse Prediction
A low-scoring contest is expected between two sides with blunt attacking records and early-season caution. ES Metlaoui's inability to find the net in four of their last five league and cup matches contrasts with Hammam-Sousse's recent defensive solidity, as seen in their opening 0-0 draw. The statistical rates point to a contest where one goal could decide it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Head-to-head meetings are split, but 3 of the last 6 have finished either 1-0 or 1-1.
Defence
- →ES Metlaoui average just 0.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match over their last five.
Match Context
- →ES Hammam-Sousse have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5, but failed to score in their only league match this season.
How ES Metlaoui and ES Hammam-Sousse Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ES Metlaouilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Hammam-Sousselast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Metlaoui have lost two straight and managed just one win in their last five, scoring only twice in that span. In contrast, ES Hammam-Sousse are unbeaten in their last two, including a 0-0 draw to open their Ligue 1 campaign, and have shown slightly more attacking intent in recent Ligue 2 fixtures.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse — Last 1 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse
The head-to-head record is balanced, with each side winning twice and two draws from their last six meetings. Notably, three of these matches ended either 1-0 or 1-1, underlining the low-scoring nature of this fixture. Away teams have won twice in Metlaoui, indicating no strong home-field edge.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
ES Metlaoui wins
2
Draws
2
ES Hammam-Sousse wins
Things to Watch: ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse
- ⚠️Only one league match played for each side this season, so current form is based on a small sample.
- ⚠️No corners, shots, or possession data available for either team, limiting set-piece and tempo analysis.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ES Metlaoui 0–1 ES Hammam-SousseThe model projects a 1-0 away win for ES Hammam-Sousse, driven by Metlaoui's lack of attacking output (0.4 goals per game recently) and Hammam-Sousse's ability to keep games tight. The strongest data point is the 81% probability for under 2.5 goals. The main risk is that Hammam-Sousse's more open Ligue 2 matches translate into a higher-scoring contest than the recent averages suggest.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse: Common Questions
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
The model gives ES Hammam-Sousse a 35% chance of winning, with a 42% probability for a draw and 23% for a home win. Both teams have struggled for goals, so a low-scoring draw or narrow away win is most likely.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
There is an 81% probability of under 2.5 goals, based on both teams' recent scoring rates and a history of tight head-to-head matches. Only one of their last six meetings has featured more than two goals.
Will both teams score in ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
The model estimates just a 28% chance of both teams scoring, with ES Metlaoui failing to score in three of their last five and Hammam-Sousse drawing 0-0 in their only Ligue 1 match this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ES Metlaoui vs ES Hammam-Sousse: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.