ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Zarzis
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
ES Hammam-Sousse
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10ES Zarzis Strike Twice After the Break to See Off ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Zarzis made home advantage count with a commanding 2-0 victory over ES Hammam-Sousse at Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium. After a cagey first half, Zarzis broke the deadlock shortly after the interval and doubled their lead midway through the second half, ultimately sealing a deserved three points. The hosts were disciplined at the back and clinical in front of goal, while Hammam-Sousse struggled to create meaningful chances and never truly threatened a comeback. The match was a tale of two halves: a tense, physical opening period gave way to Zarzis's attacking intent after the break. Four yellow cards for the hosts reflected their combative approach, but they kept their composure when it mattered most. Hammam-Sousse, meanwhile, were unable to convert their limited possession into opportunities, picking up a solitary booking in a frustrating afternoon.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
48' — Goal
ES Zarzis open the scoring, breaking the deadlock early in the second half.
69' — Goal
Zarzis double their lead, putting the game beyond Hammam-Sousse.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Four Zarzis players and one Hammam-Sousse player go into the book in a physical encounter.
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis delivered a professional display, especially in the second half where they found the breakthrough and maintained control. Their defensive organization was matched by sharp attacking transitions, and they managed the game well after taking the lead. Despite picking up four yellow cards, their discipline in key moments ensured a clean sheet and a valuable win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse struggled to impose themselves, failing to register a goal and rarely troubling the Zarzis defense. Their attacking play lacked cohesion, and they were unable to respond after conceding. A single yellow card summed up a largely passive display, and they will need to find more creativity and urgency in future fixtures.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both lineups unavailable, the tactical battle was defined more by intensity and discipline than by intricate formations. ES Zarzis set up to absorb pressure and strike decisively after halftime, pressing higher up the pitch as the game wore on. Their physical approach, reflected in four yellow cards, helped disrupt Hammam-Sousse's rhythm. Hammam-Sousse, on the other hand, appeared conservative and struggled to transition from defense to attack, lacking the width or creativity to break down a resolute Zarzis backline.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 48th minute, which shifted momentum firmly in Zarzis's favor and forced Hammam-Sousse onto the back foot.
Man of the Match
Unknown (Goal Scorer 48')
Scored the crucial opener and set the tone for Zarzis's second-half dominance.
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse: Match Preview
ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse both enter this fixture on the back of three straight league defeats, languishing in 12th and 15th place respectively. Zarzis have at least managed a home win this season, while Hammam-Sousse are still searching for their first victory and have found goals hard to come by, with just one scored in four league outings.
Statistically, this is a meeting of two blunt attacks: Zarzis average 0.75 goals for and 1.25 against per match, while Hammam-Sousse are even less productive at 0.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have failed to score in at least half their games, and the last five matches for each have produced a combined three clean sheets. The first half has seen just two goals for each team in their last five, indicating a slow start is likely.
Given the low scoring rates and the H2H pattern of draws and narrow margins, the model expects a cagey affair with few clear chances. The most probable outcome is a 1-0 win for ES Zarzis, but a goalless or 1-1 draw are nearly as likely, with under 2.5 goals and 'no' on both teams to score both strongly supported by the data.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
BTTS: Yes
27%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse that most previews miss.
- 1ES Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in both away games this season and in three of four league matches overall.
- 2Only two of the last seven head-to-head meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, with three finishing 1-1.
- 3ES Zarzis have scored just once before half-time in their four league matches, indicating a low-probability first half.
Who do you think wins: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both teams have averaged less than a goal per game (ES Zarzis 0.75, Hammam-Sousse 0.25), and the last seven H2H meetings have produced three draws, including both most recent encounters at 1-1.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Combined, these sides have played eight league matches this season with only two going over 2.5 goals; both average 1.25 goals conceded and under 1 goal scored per match.
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BTTS: No
ES Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in three of four league games, while ES Zarzis have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches and failed to score in half of their last four.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Prediction
This fixture pits two of Ligue 1's lowest-scoring sides against each other, with both ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse struggling to find the net and sitting in the bottom quarter of the table. Defensive solidity has not been a strength either, but the lack of attacking threat on both sides points to a contest likely to be decided by a single goal or less.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →ES Zarzis average only 0.75 goals scored per league match, but have a marginally better home record (1 win, 1 loss, 2 goals for, 2 against).
Match Context
- →ES Hammam-Sousse have not scored away from home this season (0 goals in 2 away games) and have just 1 goal in 4 league matches.
- →Both teams have lost three of their last four, with Zarzis' only win coming at home and Hammam-Sousse still seeking a first victory.
How ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
ES Zarzislast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Hammam-Sousselast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Both teams arrive in poor form, with ES Zarzis losing three straight league matches after an opening home win, and Hammam-Sousse still winless after four rounds. Zarzis' only recent bright spot was a 3-1 cup win, while Hammam-Sousse have managed just a single goal in their last four competitive fixtures.
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
What History Says: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
The head-to-head record is balanced, with three draws in the last five meetings and neither side winning more than twice in seven encounters. The last two meetings ended 1-1, and only one of the last five produced more than two goals, underlining the likelihood of a close, low-scoring contest.
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
3
ES Zarzis wins
2
Draws
3
ES Hammam-Sousse wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value cannot be quantified. However, the model's strong lean towards under 2.5 goals and 'no' on both teams to score suggests these would be the primary value angles if market prices were available.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lack of shot and possession data reduces confidence in attacking/defensive process rates.
- ⚠️Small sample size early in the season makes true team strength harder to gauge.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ES Zarzis 1–0 ES Hammam-SousseThe model projects a narrow 1-0 home win for ES Zarzis, primarily on the basis of Hammam-Sousse's anemic attack (0 goals away, 1 in four league games). The likeliest way this prediction fails is if both teams' defensive lapses lead to a rare high-scoring draw, but the underlying rates point strongly to a low-scoring contest.
ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse: Common Questions
Who will win ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
ES Zarzis are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 18% for Hammam-Sousse and a 38% chance of a draw. Both sides have struggled for points, but Zarzis' marginally better home record tips the balance.
Will both teams score in ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 26%, with 'no' the clear favourite. Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in three of four league matches, and Zarzis have two clean sheets in all competitions over their last five.
How likely is under 2.5 goals in ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse?
The model gives a 78% probability to under 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' low scoring rates (combined 4 goals in 8 league games) and the tendency for recent head-to-heads to finish 1-1 or 1-0.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.