FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
FC Augsburg
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
FSV Mainz 05
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.8(+10% edge)
Recommended Bets: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: Match Preview
Augsburg enter this clash desperate to halt a winless run stretching back five league matches, having shipped 14 goals in that period and sliding to 14th in the table. Mainz, just a point ahead in 12th, are also reeling from four straight defeats in all competitions, their early-season away form now overshadowed by defensive lapses and a blunt attack. With both sides hovering above the relegation zone, the stakes are clear: neither can afford another setback.
Tactically, this match pits Augsburg's high-volume attack (20.6 shots per game in the last five) against a Mainz defence that has conceded 2.2 goals per game over the same stretch. Augsburg have scored in every recent outing but have not managed a single clean sheet, while Mainz's away record (3 wins from 4) is offset by a recent collapse, including a 4-1 defeat at Elversberg. Both teams' matches have been goal-heavy—Augsburg's last five all saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals, while Mainz have averaged 2.2 conceded per game. Set pieces could play a role, with Mainz averaging 6.2 corners and Augsburg 5 per match.
The model expects neither side to find the defensive solidity needed to secure three points. Augsburg's tendency to draw at home (three in five) and Mainz's recent away struggles suggest a high-scoring stalemate is on the cards. With both teams under pressure and showing little sign of tightening up, a 2-2 draw emerges as the most probable outcome.
How FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Augsburglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FSV Mainz 05last 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Augsburg have failed to win any of their last five Bundesliga matches, conceding 14 goals but still finding the net in every game. Mainz, meanwhile, are mired in a four-match losing streak, having conceded 11 and scored just 5 in that period. Both sides are trending downward, with defensive problems undermining any attacking promise.
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 88.89% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 21 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 77.78% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 that most previews miss.
- 1Augsburg have seen both teams score in all of their last five Bundesliga matches, with an average of 5 goals per game in that span.
- 2Mainz have lost four consecutive matches in all competitions, conceding at least two goals in three of those.
- 3The last five head-to-head meetings have all produced at least three goals, with Mainz winning four of them.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
72%
BTTS: Yes
71%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 2-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides in desperate need of a reset. Augsburg have stumbled through their last five Bundesliga matches without a win, conceding 14 goals in that stretch, while Mainz arrive on a four-match losing streak across all competitions. Both teams sit in the lower half of the table, separated by a single point, and neither can afford to let this opportunity slip with relegation places lurking just beneath. Statistically, the matchup is defined by attacking intent and defensive instability. Augsburg's last five league games have averaged 5 goals combined, with both teams scoring in every outing—yet their 0% clean sheet rate over that period highlights ongoing issues at the back. Mainz, for their part, have managed only one clean sheet in their last five, conceding 11 and scoring just 5, while their away record remains a relative bright spot (3 wins from 4), though recent results have seen that momentum evaporate. Both sides average over 11 shots per game, but Augsburg create more (20.6), while Mainz rely on efficiency and set pieces (6.2 corners per match). Given the recent form trajectories—Augsburg's attack still finding the net despite poor results, Mainz's away resilience countered by current defensive frailty—the model expects an open contest with goals at both ends. The most likely scenario is a high-scoring draw, with neither side showing the defensive discipline to close out a win. Momentum is against both, but Augsburg's home draws and Mainz's away wins balance out for a share of the points.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Augsburg have failed to win any of their last five league games, conceding 14 goals in that span.
- →Mainz are on a four-match losing streak in all competitions, conceding 11 goals in their last five.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in at least four of their last five league matches.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.85
Both Augsburg and Mainz arrive in a trough of form—Augsburg have not won in five league matches (LLDLD), while Mainz have lost four straight in all competitions. With both sides averaging over 2 goals conceded per game in their last five, defensive frailties and a lack of momentum on either side point to a high-probability stalemate, especially given Augsburg's home draw rate (3 in 5 at home) and Mainz's 0 draws away but recent slide.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
🚩 FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for FC Augsburg and 5.5 for FSV Mainz 05, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
What History Says: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
Mainz have dominated recent meetings, winning seven of the last ten and scoring at least three in four of those victories. The fixture has consistently produced goals, with the last five encounters all going over 2.5 and Mainz netting four in two of their last three visits to Augsburg.
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
FC Augsburg wins
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05 wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
The draw price (3.8) offers the clearest value, with the model's probability (29%) exceeding the implied odds by over 10%. BTTS 'Yes' is accurately priced, while the under 2.5 market is less attractive given both teams' defensive records and high goal averages.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
- ⚠️Both teams are in poor form, making momentum signals volatile and hard to trust.
- ⚠️Augsburg's home record is draw-heavy, but Mainz's away form is win-heavy—one trend may break.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are unavailable at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Augsburg 2–2 FSV Mainz 05A 2-2 draw is the model's call, driven by both sides' recent defensive frailty and Augsburg's tendency to share the points at home. The strongest data point is Augsburg's 100% BTTS rate and 0% clean sheet rate in their last five, suggesting another open contest. The main risk is Mainz rediscovering their early-season away form and exploiting Augsburg's leaky defence for all three points.
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: Common Questions
Who will win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
The model gives Mainz a 43% chance of victory, Augsburg 28%, and the draw 29%. Both sides are in poor form, but Augsburg's home draws and Mainz's away wins make a stalemate the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Mainz?
There is a 70% probability of both teams scoring, with Augsburg seeing BTTS in all of their last five league matches and Mainz conceding in four of their last five.
Can Mainz end their losing streak against Augsburg?
Mainz have a strong historical record against Augsburg, winning seven of the last ten meetings, but their current four-game losing run and recent defensive issues suggest a draw is more likely than a return to winning ways.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.