Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
Borussia Mönchengladbach
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Borussia Dortmund
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.5(+5% edge)
Recommended Bets: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: Match Preview
Dortmund arrive at Borussia-Park unbeaten in the league and sitting second, with 21 points from nine games and a +9 goal difference. Their recent form is strong (WWDWW), and they have navigated a tough fixture list without defeat. Gladbach, by contrast, are bottom of the table with just one win and one draw from nine, conceding a league-high 25 goals. However, they have shown some signs of life defensively, with three clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions, though only one came in the league.
Tactically, this is a meeting of opposites: Gladbach's porous defence (2.78 conceded per game, 10 in four home matches) faces a Dortmund attack creating 15.2 shots and 5.4 on target per game over the last five. Dortmund's away games have tended to be lower scoring, with only one clean sheet but also just four goals conceded in four. Gladbach's attack is inconsistent, failing to score in three of their last five league outings, and their set-piece threat is limited (2.6 corners per game recently).
The model expects Dortmund's quality to prevail, but not by a wide margin. The most likely scenario is a controlled Dortmund win, with Gladbach struggling to break through a disciplined defence. While the market leans heavily towards goals and an away win, the data suggests value in opposing both teams to score, as Gladbach's attack has been unreliable and Dortmund's away matches have often been tight.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
The model sees little value in the 1x2 market, with Dortmund's odds accurately reflecting their superiority. The standout value is in 'both teams to score: no' at 2.50, as Gladbach's attack has faltered against strong defences and Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in over half their league games. The under 2.5 goals price is also a touch generous, but not enough to recommend at current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.47
Gladbach have failed to score in three of their last five Bundesliga matches and Dortmund have conceded just four goals in four away games this season, suggesting BTTS 'no' is slightly undervalued at 2.50.
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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund that most previews miss.
- 1Three of the last five H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, despite both teams' reputations for attacking football.
- 2Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their Bundesliga matches this season, but only 25% away from home.
- 3Gladbach have failed to score in three of their last five league games, including two home fixtures.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 2.35
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 0-2 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
The market has Dortmund as solid favourites at 1.65, reflecting their unbeaten start (W6 D3) and Gladbach's struggles at the bottom (just 4 points from 9 games). However, Gladbach have at least shown some defensive improvement recently, with three clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions, and a recent 1-0 home win over Dortmund in May still fresh in memory. Dortmund's away record is strong (W2 D2 L0, 6:4 goal difference), but not as dominant as their overall form suggests, and they've only managed one clean sheet on the road this Bundesliga campaign. Statistically, this is a clash between one of the league's leakiest defences (Gladbach concede 2.78 per game) and a Dortmund attack averaging 1.78 goals per game, but Gladbach's attack is not without threat, averaging 1.33 per game and scoring in three of their four home fixtures. Goal timing data shows Dortmund are much more dangerous after the break (eight second-half goals in their last five), while Gladbach's first-half output is slightly higher, hinting at a potential for a cagey opening. Set-piece numbers favour Dortmund, who average 5.4 corners per game over the last five, compared to Gladbach's 2.6. The model expects Dortmund's superior quality and defensive solidity to tell, but not quite to the degree the market implies. Gladbach's recent defensive tightening and Dortmund's tendency to keep things close away from home suggest a narrower margin. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, but the edge lies in opposing both teams to score at the available price, with Gladbach's attack still unreliable against top-half defences.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Gladbach have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding 25 in 9 matches.
- →Dortmund are unbeaten in the Bundesliga and have conceded just 7 in 9 games.
Match Context
- →Gladbach have failed to score in three of their last five league matches.
🚩 Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 5.3 for Borussia Dortmund, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 58% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Borussia Mönchengladbachlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Borussia Dortmundlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Gladbach come into this match bottom of the Bundesliga, with just one win and one draw from nine games and a -13 goal difference. Their recent form is patchy, with a single league win in their last five and three matches without scoring. Dortmund, meanwhile, are unbeaten in the league, winning six and drawing three, and have taken 13 points from their last five matches in all competitions.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 88.89% of games this season
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +55.56% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund have dominated this fixture historically, winning six of the last ten meetings, but Gladbach have managed to frustrate them at home, including a 1-0 win in May 2026. Recent encounters have often been tight, with three of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in just two of those.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
1
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund wins
Things to Watch: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
- ⚠️Gladbach's recent defensive improvement (three clean sheets in five) may be overstated by two coming in cup/friendly matches.
- ⚠️Dortmund's away attack is good but not prolific; only six goals in four away league games.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 Borussia DortmundA 2-1 away win for Dortmund is the likeliest outcome, driven by Gladbach's defensive frailty (2.78 conceded per game) and Dortmund's unbeaten record. The strongest data point is Gladbach's inability to score consistently against top-half sides, making BTTS 'no' at 2.50 the standout value. The main risk is Dortmund's tendency to allow late goals away from home, which could let Gladbach in for a consolation.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: Common Questions
Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
The model gives Dortmund a 63% chance of victory, with Gladbach at just 14% and the draw at 23%. Dortmund's unbeaten record and Gladbach's defensive woes make them strong favourites, though the odds may slightly overstate the gap.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Both teams to score is rated a 54% chance, but the model sees value in 'no' at 2.50 odds, as Gladbach have failed to score in three of their last five league matches and Dortmund's defence is among the league's best.
Is there value in backing Dortmund at the current odds?
Dortmund are priced at 1.65 (implied probability 61%), while the model's win probability is 63%. This suggests the price is about right, with no significant value edge backing the away side at current odds.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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