Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
Werder Bremen
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Hamburger SV
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4(+4% edge)
Recommended Bets: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV: Match Preview
Werder Bremen return to Weserstadion sitting sixth in the Bundesliga, buoyed by an unbeaten home record (three wins, one draw) and a recent run of four wins from their last seven league outings. Their form string of 'LWLWD' reflects a side capable of scoring in bunches but not immune to setbacks, as seen in their 0-1 defeat at Stuttgart last time out. Hamburg, meanwhile, are 11th with four wins and five defeats, their campaign defined by a leaky defence (20 conceded in nine) and a stark split between home and away performances.
Statistically, Bremen's attack at home (2.5 goals per game) faces a Hamburg defence that has shipped 13 in five away trips, including a 0-5 at Leipzig and a 1-3 at Frankfurt. However, Bremen's own clean sheet rate is just 11% both overall and at home, and they've conceded in three of their last five at Weserstadion. Hamburg's attack has found the net in three of their last five, and their xG and shot numbers (13.4 shots, 4.4 on target per game) suggest they can trouble a Bremen back line that has allowed 1.67 goals per game this season. Set piece metrics are close, with both sides averaging over 5 corners per game recently, and cards are likely with both averaging 2 yellows per match.
The model expects a competitive, open match with Bremen's home edge and attacking variety making the difference. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the draw is more live than the odds suggest given both teams' tendency to concede and the balanced head-to-head record. The main risk lies in Bremen's defensive frailty and Hamburg's ability to exploit transitions, which could see this end level or even swing towards the visitors if early chances are taken.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
The market heavily favours Bremen at 1.65, but the model's probabilities suggest the draw at 4.00 offers a modest edge given both teams' defensive records and the balanced H2H. Over/under and away prices are in line with model estimates, so the draw is the only notable value play.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.1
The model gives a 26% chance of a draw, slightly above the 25% implied by 4.00 odds, in a fixture where both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities but are closely matched in recent H2H and league form.
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Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV that most previews miss.
- 1Werder Bremen have scored at least twice in every home league game this season, but have not kept a clean sheet at Weserstadion since August.
- 2Hamburg's away matches average 3.4 total goals, with four of five seeing both teams score.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have featured both teams on the scoresheet, with only two draws in that span.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.05
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Prediction
Bookmakers have installed Werder Bremen as strong favourites at home, but the underlying numbers suggest a more finely balanced contest than the market implies. Bremen's unbeaten home record (3W, 1D) and superior goal difference are offset by defensive lapses, while Hamburg's away form is poor but not devoid of attacking threat. The model sees a narrow home edge but finds the draw underpriced given both teams' profiles.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Recent H2H meetings are split (4 wins each, 2 draws in last 10), with both teams scoring in 7 of those 10 encounters.
Defence
- →Werder Bremen average 2.5 goals scored per home game but have kept just one clean sheet in their last five matches.
- →Hamburger SV have lost four of five away, conceding 13 goals, yet have scored in three of their last five overall.
🚩 Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Werder Bremen and 4.8 for Hamburger SV, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Werder Bremenlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hamburger SVlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Werder Bremen have taken 10 points from their last five league matches, with a potent attack but only one clean sheet in that span. Hamburg's recent form is mixed ('WLLLW'), but they come off a morale-boosting 3-1 home win and have shown they can score even when losing away.
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
The last ten meetings are perfectly balanced, with each side winning four and drawing two. Both teams have scored in seven of those games, and Bremen won the most recent home fixture 3-1, suggesting an open contest is likely.
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Werder Bremen wins
2
Draws
4
Hamburger SV wins
Things to Watch: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
- ⚠️Hamburg's away defence is highly volatile, raising uncertainty around goal markets.
- ⚠️Both teams have only one clean sheet in their last five, so a low-scoring outcome is possible but less likely.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Werder Bremen 2–1 Hamburger SVWerder Bremen are rightly favoured at home, but their defensive record and Hamburg's sporadic attacking surges make the draw a value angle at current odds. The model's 2-1 prediction is anchored by Bremen's 2.5 goals per home game, but the most plausible risk is their tendency to concede, which could allow Hamburg to snatch a point if Bremen's finishing falters.
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV: Common Questions
Who will win Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV?
The model gives Werder Bremen a 54% chance of victory, with a 26% chance of a draw and 20% for a Hamburg win. Bremen's unbeaten home record and attacking output tip the balance, but defensive lapses mean the draw is a live possibility.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Hamburg?
There's a 60% probability of both teams scoring, supported by both sides' recent defensive struggles and the fact that seven of the last ten H2H meetings have seen goals at both ends.
Is there value in backing the draw in Werder Bremen vs Hamburg?
Yes, the draw is priced at 4.00 (25% implied), while the model estimates a 26% chance, making it a small value play in a fixture where both teams have a history of close, high-scoring encounters.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.