FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
FC Augsburg
AI Predicted Score
2 - 2
SC Freiburg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 1.44(+14% edge)
Recommended Bets: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: Match Preview
Augsburg enter this fixture sitting 10th, with a record that flatters their attack (16 goals in 6 matches, 2.67 per game) but exposes defensive frailty (12 conceded, 2 per game). Their recent form string of LDDLD masks the fact that they have scored at least twice in each of their last five Bundesliga outings, but have not kept a single clean sheet in that stretch. Freiburg, third in the table, have been more consistent, winning 4 of 6 and boasting a +9 goal difference. However, they've lost their last two in all competitions, including a 3-0 defeat at Monaco and a narrow 2-1 loss at Leverkusen, suggesting some regression from their early-season solidity.
Statistically, this matchup is shaped by Augsburg's relentless goal trading: all six league games have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in every match. Their home record (W1 D2 L0, 7:4 goals) is steady but unspectacular. Freiburg's away record (W1 D1 L1, 4:4 goals) is more balanced, but their overall defensive numbers (1.0 conceded per game, 33% clean sheet rate) are tested by Augsburg's shot volume (11.2 per game, 4.4 on target). Both sides average over 11 shots and 4 shots on target per match, supporting a high expected goal environment. Cards and corners are near league average, with no major discipline or set-piece outliers.
The model expects a match with multiple lead changes and a high likelihood of both teams finding the net. Augsburg's attacking output at home, combined with Freiburg's ability to score on the road, points to a 2-2 draw as the modal outcome. The most plausible deviation comes from either side's defensive lapses leading to a late winner, but the underlying rates make a high-scoring draw the statistical favourite.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
71%
BTTS: Yes
70%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 2-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg that most previews miss.
- 1Augsburg have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their Bundesliga matches this season (6/6).
- 2Freiburg have conceded in all of their last five away and European matches, with no clean sheets in that span.
- 3Three of the last ten head-to-heads have finished 2-2, including the most recent meeting in Augsburg.
Who do you think wins: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 1.42
Both sides have scored in 9 of their combined last 10 Bundesliga matches, and Augsburg have seen BTTS in all of their last five. The model assigns a 79% probability to BTTS, well above the 69% implied by the odds.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.5
Augsburg's matches average 4.67 goals, Freiburg's 2.67, and both have seen over 2.5 in at least 83% of games. The model's 73% probability for over 2.5 goals is higher than the 67% implied by the odds.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Prediction
Augsburg's high-scoring, defensively porous profile meets a Freiburg side with a stronger away defence but recent signs of vulnerability. The numbers point to a high-probability goal environment and a close contest, with neither side likely to keep a clean sheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Augsburg average 2.67 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, with 100% of matches over 2.5 goals.
- →Freiburg have conceded 4 goals in 3 away games, but also average 2.5 goals scored per match overall.
- →Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 competitive matches.
🚩 FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for FC Augsburg and 5.8 for SC Freiburg, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Augsburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SC Freiburglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Augsburg have drawn three and lost two of their last five, but have scored at least twice in every Bundesliga match during that run. Freiburg, despite two recent defeats (including a 3-0 loss to Monaco), have won four of their last six and remain third in the table, but their defensive record has wobbled in recent outings.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
Freiburg have been the dominant side in this matchup, winning six of the last ten, but Augsburg have held them to draws in the last two meetings at the WWK Arena. High-scoring draws (notably 2-2) have been a recurring theme, with three such results in the last ten encounters.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
FC Augsburg wins
2
Draws
6
SC Freiburg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
The strongest model edges are on both teams to score (yes) and over 2.5 goals, both of which are priced below the model's estimated probabilities. With Augsburg's 100% over 2.5 goals rate and both sides' BTTS trends, these markets offer the clearest value relative to the odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
- ⚠️Small sample size (6 league matches) increases variance in goal and result rates.
- ⚠️Both teams have played one or more friendlies in the recent sample, which may distort recent form stats.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but starting XIs are unknown at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Augsburg 2–2 SC FreiburgThe model projects a 2-2 draw, driven by Augsburg's league-leading 100% over 2.5 goals rate and both teams' inability to keep clean sheets in recent weeks. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if either side's attack underperforms against the run of play, but the goal environment is supported by every available rate.
FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: Common Questions
Who will win FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg?
The model gives Freiburg a 45% chance of victory, Augsburg a 28% chance, and a draw 27%. Given both teams' goal rates and defensive records, a high-scoring draw is the most statistically likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Freiburg?
Yes is strongly favoured, with a 79% probability from the model. Both teams have scored in all of Augsburg's league matches and 4 of Freiburg's last 5 competitive games.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 73% probability by the model, with Augsburg seeing this outcome in every league match so far and Freiburg in 83% of theirs.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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