FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Predictions
Liga MX · Mexico
FC Juarez
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
CF Pachuca
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.32(+2% edge)
FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca: Match Preview
FC Juarez enter this match rooted to the bottom of Liga MX, pointless after five rounds and with a league-worst -12 goal difference. Their home record offers little comfort—three defeats from three, with only two goals scored and eight conceded. Pachuca, while only four points better off, have been more competitive on the road, taking four points from three away games and conceding just twice in those matches. Both sides come in off the back of high-BTTS and over 2.5 trends, but their league positions reflect contrasting defensive reliability.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by Juarez's defensive frailty (3.0 goals conceded per game) and Pachuca's moderate but efficient away attack (1.33 goals per away match). Juarez average just 0.67 goals per home game, while Pachuca's away defence is among the better units in the lower half of the table. Both teams have seen BTTS in four of their last five, but Juarez's shot volume (9 per match) has not translated into goals, and their set-piece threat is limited (2.4 corners per game). Cards are likely, with Juarez averaging 2.6 yellows per match in their last five.
The model expects Pachuca to control the tempo and create the better chances, with Juarez relying on sporadic counter-attacks and set pieces. The most probable outcome is a narrow Pachuca win, but the draw cannot be discounted given both teams' recent tendency to concede late goals. A 1-2 away victory is the statistical favourite, with the main risk being Juarez's unpredictable attack finding a way through a disciplined but not elite Pachuca defence.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca that most previews miss.
- 1Juarez's home matches average 3.33 goals per game this season, but they have scored just twice in three outings.
- 2Pachuca have conceded only two goals in three away league games, the best record among the bottom eight sides.
- 3Four of the last six H2H meetings have finished with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.68
The model gives the draw a 28% probability (implied odds 3.57), slightly above the market's 27.4% implied, with both teams showing high BTTS rates (4/5) and Juarez's home attack (0.67 goals/game) unable to outpace Pachuca's moderate away defence (0.67 conceded/game).
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BTTS: No@ 2.32
Despite both teams' recent BTTS trends, Juarez have failed to score in 1 of their last 5 and have the lowest attack in Liga MX (0.6 goals/game), while Pachuca have one away clean sheet in three and Juarez have failed to score in 40% of home matches since last season.
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More Liga MX Predictions
The Case For This FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Prediction
This is a low-table Liga MX clash where Juarez, winless in five and leaking an average of three goals per game, face a Pachuca side with a balanced but unspectacular away record. The numbers point to a moderate goal environment, with Pachuca's away scoring (1.33 per game) outpacing Juarez's home output, but neither side showing the attacking consistency to expect a rout. The likeliest scenario is Pachuca exploiting Juarez's frail defence, but the home side's shot volume and set-piece threat could keep them in the contest for long stretches.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Juarez have lost all five Liga MX matches this season, conceding 15 goals (3.0 per game).
- →Pachuca's away defence is the second-best in the bottom half, conceding just 0.67 goals per away game.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 60% of their matches, but Juarez have failed to score in 40% of home games.
🚩 FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.4 corners for FC Juarez and 5.3 for CF Pachuca, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How FC Juarez and CF Pachuca Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Juarezlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CF Pachucalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Juarez are on a three-match losing streak in Liga MX, conceding 13 goals in their last three league games and failing to earn a single point this season. Pachuca, while inconsistent, have taken four points from three away matches and have avoided defeat in two of their last three overall. Both teams have shown a recent BTTS trend, but Pachuca's defensive numbers away from home are notably stronger.
FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca
Pachuca have the edge in the head-to-head, winning five of the last ten meetings and taking two of the last three at Juarez. However, draws have been common, with two of the last five ending level, and four of the last six have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals. The fixture tends to produce goals and competitive scorelines.
FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
FC Juarez wins
2
Draws
5
CF Pachuca wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca
There is a marginal edge on the draw at odds of 3.65, with the model's 28% probability slightly above the market's implied 27.4%. 'BTTS: No' and 'Under 2.5' also show small positive expected value, reflecting Juarez's unreliable attack and Pachuca's solid away defence. No major market mispricings, but small value exists for those seeking alternatives to the away win.
Odds from Unibet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca
- ⚠️Small sample size on both teams' season records (5 matches); recent Leagues Cup form may not translate directly.
- ⚠️No lineup or injury data available for this fixture; late team news could affect goal and card probabilities.
- ⚠️Juarez's attack is highly volatile, with shot volume not translating into goals—variance risk is elevated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Juarez 1–2 CF PachucaThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Pachuca, built primarily on Juarez's league-worst defensive record (3.0 conceded per game) and Pachuca's ability to limit chances away from home. The main threat to this outcome is Juarez converting a higher share of their limited shots or Pachuca's attack underperforming against a deep block.
FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca: Common Questions
Who will win FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca?
The model gives Pachuca a 54% chance of victory, with Juarez at 18% and the draw at 28%. Pachuca's superior away defence and Juarez's poor home form are the key factors.
Will both teams score in FC Juarez vs Pachuca?
Both teams to score is rated at 58%, with both sides seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches, but Juarez's attack is unreliable at home (0.67 goals/game).
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 63%, reflecting both teams' 60% over 2.5 rate this season and Juarez's tendency to concede heavily at home.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.